2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[yoda]

I see sun and some blue sky leaving work 

[Eskimo Joe]

Hope this crapvection over this mountains sorts itself out and quick.

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hope this crapvection over this mountains sorts itself out and quick.

It looks like its leaving a gap in the middle

[Kmlwx]

Lots of cloud cover with it, though. I know @high risk indicated we may not need ABUNDANT sunshine - but I can't help feeling like we've seen this movie a million times. 

[Kmlwx]

The 0z CSU guidance has a large area of 30% now as well. So that has upticked. Though the usefulness of the AI guidance is probably less on the day of. 

[yoda]

30 wind nudged NEward on 1300z OTLK from SPC... includes i95 corridor and DC metro and Baltimore metro

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Lots of cloud cover with it, though. I know @high risk indicated we may not need ABUNDANT sunshine - but I can't help feeling like we've seen this movie a million times. 

Clouds are our most common fail mode in these parts.

[Kmlwx]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Clouds are our most common fail mode in these parts.

That being said...satellite doesn't look as bad as I thought it would a few hours ago 

[SolidIcewx]

17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

That being said...satellite doesn't look as bad as I thought it would a few hours ago 

Looks like the clouds are breaking up a bit to the west

[aldie 22]

Light rain here with blue skies to the west

[Eskimo Joe]

37 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

That being said...satellite doesn't look as bad as I thought it would a few hours ago 

Yes it's somewhat encouraging

 

[MDphotog]

On 7/25/2026 at 10:28 AM, high risk said:

         The Euro is a legit severe solution for Tuesday.   The GFS screams "dying MCS moves through at 9AM and kills off the afternoon threat".

We shall see about the second part of the GFS call, but it nailed the first part.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, MDphotog said:

We shall see about the second part of the GFS call, but it nailed the first part.

Latest HRRR is very GFS-esque. Total whiff for everyone.

[SolidIcewx]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest HRRR is very GFS-esque. Total whiff for everyone.

Richmond wins again?

[yoda]

I can see the sun breaking out through the clouds at times here

[yoda]

24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest HRRR is very GFS-esque. Total whiff for everyone.

14z HRRR smacks DC metro and south

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

14z HRRR smacks DC metro and south

La Plata UH track maximum....

[Bob Chill]

Pretty nice MCS remnant/rebirth moving through down here. Warned sections missed my hood but high quality rainfall this AM with some deep bass rumbles. Blacksburg honking a little for round 2 if we get some sun in between. Smith mtn lake is still over 5' below full pool. Lots of wrecked propellers and shoal beachings this summer lol. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Can see the clearing happening everywhere around my house on Sat, but ground truth is still cloudy with some haze. That said, think we could be in for a decent severe wx day, we got the parameters for a good squall/MCS so maybe we get lucky and have a nice shelf cloud. 

[wawarriors4]

Full Sun in Spotsylvania, 86 degrees

[Kmlwx]

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1108 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW  
JERSEY...DELAWARE...MARYLAND  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY   
  
VALID 281608Z - 281815Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
  
DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING WITHIN THE  
WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW  
ENGLAND. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
REGION, WHICH IS LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. NONETHELESS,  
A FEW AREAS OF MORE BROKEN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR FILTERED  
HEATING , WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW IS  
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-45 KTS ACROSS THE  
REGION. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AND THE COLD FRONT TO WEST  
SHIFTS EASTWARD, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE  
AND INTENSITY NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PRIMARY RISKS WILL  
BE DAMAGING WIND BUT A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS MAY POSE POTENTIAL  
FOR A TORNADO.  
  
..THORNTON/HART.. 07/28/2026  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
  
ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

 

[Eskimo Joe]

^looks like an I-70 and north kind of watch box

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^looks like an I-70 and north kind of watch box

Probably... but to me thats "good news" for our severe prospects IMO.  Granted we could still whiff, but 80% chance of a watch box to our north suggests to me that we are definitely in the game this afternoon for severe

[yoda]

2% tor was pushed back into the i81 corridor on 1630z OTLK.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Probably... but to me thats "good news" for our severe prospects IMO.  Granted we could still whiff, but 80% chance of a watch box to our north suggests to me that we are definitely in the game this afternoon for severe

This is a good take!

[yoda]

Im gathering we will get "our" MCD soon as another one was just issued by SPC... but for SW VA into C NC

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1781.html

 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, yoda said:

Im gathering we will get "our" MCD soon as another one was just issued by SPC... but for SW VA into C NC

Saving the most meh for last!

[mappy]

Clouds

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This is a good take!

I like that implies we will get upstream storms, so at the very least we should get a nice rainy/thundery evening from whatever remnants can make it our way. Sort of similar to our last setup and getting the MCS from WV. 

[LeesburgWx]

It just got hot and humid out of nowhere. Sun is out