yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: Radarscope just lit up with a tornado watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, high risk said: It's going to be an active day for sure, but I'm not sure I'm ready to say that it will be memorable. You're spot on about the high end instability, but while the shear is good, low-level shear is marginal and might actually decrease through the afternoon as the warm front advances to the northeast. I suppose memorable is a sliding scale. I didn’t mean to imply we’ll see a widespread tornado or severe outbreak, but I think it might be a day where we reference it by date in the future when discussing upcoming severe systems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, yoda said: I think they're going to do what I suggested earlier. Put a tornado box to our east and northeast where the better low-level shear is in place, and put a severe box over the rest of MD and northern and central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Another MCD for C into S VA into NC with STWatch needed soon in it... I guess we will get lumped into that Mesoscale Discussion 1649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...ortions of southern Virginia...western North Carolina...far northeast Tennessee...southeastern West Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181756Z - 181900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to increase in intensity this afternoon with a risk for damaging wind gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across the higher terrain of WV, NC and VA at 1755z, and also along a confluence zone extending from northern VA into western NC. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer has contributed to MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates of 8.5 to 9 deg/C. In the presence of minimal CINH, storms should continue to increase in coverage through the afternoon and move generally east. Shear in the cloud-bearing layer will average 20-25 kts across northern portions of the discussion area and 15-20 kts farther south, sufficient for updraft organization and a risk for damaging wind gusts. Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed shortly. ..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36938187 37458132 37957998 38207909 38197842 37907734 37557681 36927645 36077666 35487802 35237929 35118087 35298160 35678207 36228209 36938187 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago FDK cell may need a TW soon... 70mph winds and tornado possible tag in it in latest SWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, high risk said: I think they're going to do what I suggested earlier. Put a tornado box to our east and northeast where the better low-level shear is in place, and put a severe box over the rest of MD and northern and central VA. Yup. We'll see that severe thunderstorm watch in the next 20 min I reckon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Wow, 55,000 ft tops on the warned storm just south of Charles Town! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago FDK storm really needs a TW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago STW up for y'all bordering the tornado watch. Serious question for anyone, just how legitimate is the tornado threat on the Delmarva today? I have learned not to trust warm fronts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, yoda said: FDK storm really needs a TW... Looks like it was just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Fwiw, Radarscope is tagging max hail of 3.5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Frederick/Montgomery County going to be swapped from a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to a Tornado Watch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Frederick/Montgomery County going to be swapped from a Severe Thunderstorm Watch to a Tornado Watch That seems odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 495/496 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 219 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026 MDC013-021-027-031-033-190100- /O.CAN.KLWX.SV.A.0496.000000T0000Z-260719T0100Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.TO.A.0495.000000T0000Z-260719T0100Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 495 UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING WHICH REPLACES A PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496. THE NEW WATCH IS VALID FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN MARYLAND THE NEW WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND CARROLL FREDERICK THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BALLENGER CREEK, BETHESDA, BOWIE, BOYDS, BUCKEYSTOWN, CLARKSVILLE, CLINTON, COLLEGE PARK, COLUMBIA, ELDERSBURG, FOUR CORNERS, FREDERICK, GAITHERSBURG, GAMBER, GERMANTOWN, GLENMONT, GREENBELT, HISTORIC ELLICOTT CITY, MONTPELIER, PARK MILLS, SILVER SPRING, SIMPSONVILLE, SUITLAND-SILVER HILL, TANTALLON, WESTMINSTER, AND WOODSTOCK. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Lol so they conveniently adjusted the tornado watch to include the tornadic supercell and somehow randomly kept DC in the stw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 226 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... South central Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 226 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Ballenger Creek, or near Harry Grove Stadium, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Germantown, Frederick, Damascus, Poolesville, Ballenger Creek, Mount Airy, New Market, Boyds, Green Valley, Point Of Rocks, Linganore-Bartonsville, Clarksburg, Adamstown, Buckeystown, Monrovia, Barnesville, Ijamsville, Mount Pleasant, Park Mills, and Lucketts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago looks like that storm had been moving E or even ENE, but when it ramped up and got tornado warned, it made a right turn and is now headed SE, probably towards the Damascus area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Almost looks like that storm/complex is turning more southward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 300 PM EDT. * At 233 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Ballenger Creek, or near Harry Grove Stadium, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Damascus and Green Valley around 240 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Park Mills, Monrovia, Buckeystown, and Clarksburg. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3936 7717 3935 7717 3934 7719 3930 7715 3929 7715 3923 7721 3930 7744 3935 7742 TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 268DEG 21KT 3932 7738 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 234 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 315 PM EDT. * At 234 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Thurmont, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Westminster, Thurmont, Emmitsburg, Taneytown, Union Bridge, Harney, Rocky Ridge, Detour, Uniontown, Keysville, Keymar, and Graceham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Is it just me or is everything popping up having at least some rotation in it, at least on radarscope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago There is a decent meso aloft, but there's nothing about today or the storm itself that would suggest that we could see anything truly tornadic today. Too wet, and not enough SRH / Bulk Shear. If anyone does see something it will be akin to scud sucking on a the edge of an outflow boundary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, AlexD1990 said: Is it just me or is everything popping up having at least some rotation in it, at least on radarscope I believe it was @high risk who said there was rotation aloft today... but that it was weak in the low levels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I swear NAM was showing a activity right where it fired up earlier. Dang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Storm just blowing up near Thurmont. Zero to wheeee in like 3 frames. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, yoda said: I believe it was @high risk who said there was rotation aloft today... but that it was weak in the low levels Close. I said that the deep layer shear favored the storms to rotate, but the low-level shear (which is needed to get the rotating storms to produce tornadoes) was fairly marginal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 minute ago, high risk said: Close. I said that the deep layer shear favored the storms to rotate, but the low-level shear (which is needed to get the rotating storms to produce tornadoes) was fairly marginal. So, mesocyclones but staying aloft? Is there any way to tell this apart on radar, maybe a certain tilt level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Storm SE of Warrenton looks interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago The lightning today is no joke with all the water and MLCAPE in the phase transition layer. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Storm SE of Warrenton looks interesting... Yep just got warned - if it holds together could affect DC given its NE motion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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