2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[mappy]

9 hours ago, 32º said:

I noticed the rotation also and did save a screen shot of storm relative velocity. 

Yes thank you! It had that rotation the whole time it cross York County with no warning on it until it was east of Stewartstown 

[WxUSAF]

Guidance is hot garbage for Thursday. 

[dailylurker]

39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Guidance is hot garbage for Thursday. 

Just got done reading all the hype on Facebook lol. I just want rain. I don't care about severe. Hopefully that happens. 

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Just got done reading all the hype on Facebook lol. I just want rain. I don't care about severe. Hopefully that happens. 

Guidance is hot dry garbage 

[dailylurker]

39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Guidance is hot dry garbage 

So just boring ass drought? Looks like it all misses to the north where they have a rain surplus lol

The 10 day gfs precip map really tells the story. Just incredibly boring. 

[high risk]

40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Guidance is hot dry garbage 

Deep westerly flow here is never a good environment for widespread convection.  That said, the dew points aren’t progged to lower Thursday afternoon as much as I would have expected, and the RRFS is able to generate a few scattered storms.  And any storm in this kinematic environment would be interesting.  Still, the best chance of some rainfall might be early Friday as a weak wave moves along the front.  

[Kmlwx]

CSU MLP is pretty garden variety (15% in a big, broad area). CIPS is pretty unenthused. NCAR is still heavily bullish. 

I think most of us know this at this point is not going to be an outbreak in our region. But let's see how things evolve with Wednesday convection and timing and such. 

[Eskimo Joe]

40 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

CSU MLP is pretty garden variety (15% in a big, broad area). CIPS is pretty unenthused. NCAR is still heavily bullish. 

I think most of us know this at this point is not going to be an outbreak in our region. But let's see how things evolve with Wednesday convection and timing and such. 

This is just my observation, but the AI stuff (NCAR) seems to over do convection is marginal environments. It's almost like there aren't enough events in it's database.

[Kmlwx]

34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This is just my observation, but the AI stuff (NCAR) seems to over do convection is marginal environments. It's almost like there aren't enough events in it's database.

I've also noticed the "FengWu" ones seem to be more bullish than the other one. 

Maybe it's just not well calibrated or something?

[yoda]

FWIW, MRGL added on 1300z OTLK from SPC for just east of i95 corridor and the Delmarva for tonight... 0/5/5

.Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic...

   Some strong/locally severe thunderstorms could occur tonight as
   convection develop near/north of a near-coastal/offshore surface low
   and northward-advancing warm front. Storms will tend to be elevated
   inland, but modest buoyancy and strong unidirectional shear through
   the cloud-bearing layer could yield some hail and/or gusty winds.