Eskimo Joe Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Nice little swirl over West Virginia. If we can get enough sunshine today, we might get some decent storms south of I-70. Might be a DC to EZF special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Nice little swirl over West Virginia. If we can get enough sunshine today, we might get some decent storms south of I-70. Might be a DC to EZF special. HRRR actually has something coming through Central Maryland this afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Just now, Kmlwx said: HRRR actually has something coming through Central Maryland this afternoon. Saw that. Looks like some summer showers and storms. Would be very beneficial. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Am more worried about heavy rain / flash flooding the next few days. Storms will be moving but PWAT's near 2" will dump no matter what. One of our stations (Hancock) got 1/2" in 10 minutes at 4AM this morning in a relatively benign shower. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago Someone (or a few people) in the next few days - will get microbursted I think. But probably not a region-wide event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: Am more worried about heavy rain / flash flooding the next few days. Storms will be moving but PWAT's near 2" will dump no matter what. One of our stations (Hancock) got 1/2" in 10 minutes at 4AM this morning in a relatively benign shower. Sligo Creek, I'm looking at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Someone (or a few people) in the next few days - will get microbursted I think. But probably not a region-wide event. I agree that SVR potential today is limited by lousy shear, although MCVs can be sneaky Lousy shear will also be an issue Friday, although high instability and organization of storms along the front might counteract that. But Thursday might have the best combination of shear and instability and allow for a more widespread event, although the source of triggering is less obvious than on the other two days. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago Quite a bit of initiation happening on the higher terrain to the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Quite a bit of initiation happening on the higher terrain to the west. Yeah, even though the timing/coverage differ, the fact that EVERY CAM has storms in the DC area later today was such a great sign this morning. An MCV with favorable timing is usually a great combination. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Clarksville mesonet site had a dewpoint of 76. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Clarksville mesonet site had a dewpoint of 76. Impressive. Full sun as well. Radar looks more impressive than I thought it would at this time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Per the latest SPC mesonanalysis, there appears to be a bit of a lee trough running from CHO up to Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Per the latest SPC mesonanalysis, there appears to be a bit of a lee trough running from CHO up to Harrisburg. Will that help with severe chances today or just help convection start? Seems we have Cape and not much else to work with today (bad shear, bad ML lapse rates, okay surface lapse rates). Either way how likely do you think it is we get some thunder today? I’m head coach for a swim team from 3:45 to 6:15pm so I gotta monitor the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Will that help with severe chances today or just help convection start? Seems we have Cape and not much else to work with today (bad shear, bad ML lapse rates, okay surface lapse rates). Either way how likely do you think it is we get some thunder today? I’m head coach for a swim team from 3:45 to 6:15pm so I gotta monitor the situation. They can and often do act as a forcing mechanism. More lift! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Clarksville mesonet site had a dewpoint of 76. Impressive. PWAT me baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3/4" of Rain in 15 Minutes at the Thurmont MD Mesonet site. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, wxmeddler said: 3/4" of Rain in 15 Minutes at the Thurmont MD Mesonet site. Amazing to watch the soils just absorb the rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Little cells popping up along 83, got cloudy quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Outflow boundary evident on radar near Frederick. Looks like the storms lost the terrain boost that was keeping their updrafts going. Should see some more stuff fire up ahead of the main line here shortly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alexj7 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Good amount of lightning over Leesburg now, looks like more firing up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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