2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[AmericanWxFreak]

Collapse with entrapment in Marriotsville down the road from me

[wxmeddler]

7 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

Two years ago we were hit by a direct strike and it caused $70k of damage to our house. It is incredible how the perspective changes once that has happened.

Holy cow, did you ever figure out the polarity and amperage?

[AdamHLG]

Holy cow, did you ever figure out the polarity and amperage?

No, but here is the remnants of the tree stump after the strike once it was cleaned up. The charge followed the landscape lighting wires into the house, blew up the transformer, electrified my server rack and network, blew out 3 computers, all my cat6 gear, and then some. It also scared the living **** out of us as we were home. Now I have PTSD and when severe storms strike I’m wishing it not to hit us. I’ll never forget it. Insurance paid for it all.


.

[AmericanWxFreak]

Additional photos from this evening - one of the best storms in the last two seasons of living here.

[The Dude]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Ah connective season.  That means a trace of rain and thunder somewhere in the distance.

Speak for yourself.  I got .02"!

[Kmlwx]

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Snow is tricky enough, but severe is it's own brand of tricky...might wanna leave it to @Kmlwx and company, lol

You're too kind - I'm just the moron who starts the thread ever year. I'll give all the accolades to the pros! 

[MN Transplant]

Storm reports from yesterday

 

Location	County	State	Comments
4 NNW New Market	Shenandoah	VA	Multiple trees down across southern Shenandoah County. (LWX)
4 NNW New Market	Shenandoah	VA	Tree was down along Quicksburg Lane and Middle Brook Lane. (LWX)
Stephens City	Frederick	VA	A couple trees were down around Stephens City (LWX)
4 NNW Boyce	Clarke	VA	A tree was down along Salem Church Road. (LWX)
Berryville	Clarke	VA	Tree was down along Main Street in Berryville. (LWX)
Taylorstown	Loudoun	VA	A tree was down along Taylorstown Road and had to be removed from the roadway. (LWX)
Lucketts	Loudoun	VA	A shed was blown onto the roadway in Lucketts. (LWX)
1 SSW Woodsboro	Frederick	MD	Barn roof blown off and wires down in the 10400 block of MD-194 Woodsboro Pike. (LWX)
3 W Dickerson	Loudoun	VA	Trees down on eastbound VA-662 Lost Corner Road near Spinks Ferry Road. (LWX)
3 NW Clarksburg	Montgomery	MD	Trees down blocking MD-355 Frederick Road near Prescott Road. (LWX)
1 E Linwood	Carroll	MD	Several large tree limbs down along MD-84 South Clear Ridge Road north of MD-75 Green Valley Road. (LWX)
Clarksburg	Montgomery	MD	Trees down on MD-355 Frederick Road at Stringtown Road. (LWX)
4 ESE Park Mills	Frederick	MD	A tree was down along Linthicum Road. (LWX)
1 ESE Linwood	Carroll	MD	Multiple trees... wires... and large limbs down near the intersection of MD-84 South Clear Ridge Road and MD-75 Green Valley Road. (LWX)
3 SSW Damascus	Montgomery	MD	Numerous large tree limbs several inches in diameter snapped and blew in from neighbor's yard. (LWX)
Damascus	Montgomery	MD	Several shingles and shutters blown off house just east of downtown Damascus. (LWX)
1 ESE Linwood	Carroll	MD	Multiple trees... wires... and large limbs down near the intersection of MD-84 South Clear Ridge Road and MD-75 Green Valley Road. (LWX)
2 ESE Damascus	Montgomery	MD	Large tree down on Hawkins Creamery Road. (LWX)
4 ESE Friendship	Howard	MD	Trees down blocking MD-94 Woodbine Road near Annapolis Rock Road. (LWX)
1 ESE Westminster	Carroll	MD	Large branches down near the intersection of Key Street and North Street. (LWX)
3 SSW Poplar Springs	Howard	MD	Multiple trees and wires down on MD-94 Woodbine Road near Florence Road... and across western Howard County to MD-144 Frederick Road. (LWX)
1 ESE Germantown	Montgomery	MD	Several trees and wires down in the Germantown/Gaithersburg area. (LWX)
1 ESE Lisbon	Howard	MD	Several windows blown out... numerous trees down... and siding damage to at least one house near the intersection of Daisy Road and MD-144 Frederick Road. (LWX)
2 ESE Lisbon	Howard	MD	Trees and wires down along MD-144 Frederick Road between Morgan Station Road and MD-97 Roxbury Mills Road. (LWX)
2 NNE Glenwood	Howard	MD	Trees down near the intersection of MD-97 Roxbury Mills Road and MD-144 Frederick Road. (LWX)
2 N Glenwood	Howard	MD	Trees down on Bushy Park Road between MD-144 Frederick Road and Millers Mill Road. (LWX)
2 WNW West Friendship	Howard	MD	Trees down on MD-144 Frederick Road near Pfefferkorn Road. (LWX)
2 NW West Friendship	Howard	MD	Numerous trees topped on Underwood Road. (LWX)
2 WSW Henryton	Howard	MD	Large trees down on Howard Lodge Driver... River Road... and Taylor Park Road. (LWX)
2 SSE Sykesville	Howard	MD	Trees and wires down along MD-32 Sykesville Road between River Road and Deer Hill Road. (LWX)
1 S Marriottsville	Howard	MD	Trees down onto houses in the 1300 to 1500 block of Driver Road. (LWX)
1 NNW Henryton	Carroll	MD	Trees and large branches down on Henrytown Road approaching Arrington Road. (LWX)
1 E Lochearn	Baltimore	MD	Several calls for trees/wires down near Lochearn... including at and Wildwood Avenue and Lochearn Drive. (LWX)
2 SSE Pikesville	Baltimore City	MD	Tree and lines down on Cross Country Boulevard. (LWX)
1 ESE Pikesville	Baltimore	MD	Several calls for trees/wires down in the Pikesville area... including near the intersection of Greenspring Avenue and Quarry Lake Drive (LWX)
3 NW Langford	Kent	MD	Tree down blocking a road in the community of Fairlee. Time estimated from radar. (PHI)
2 SE North East	Cecil	MD	Two trees down on Irishtown Road and two trees down on Frenchtown Road. (LWX)
3 SSW Poplar Springs	Howard	MD	Multiple trees and wires down on MD-94 Woodbine Road near Florence Road... and across western Howard County to MD-144 Frederick Road. (LWX)
2 SSE Sykesville	Howard	MD	Trees and wires down along MD-32 Sykesville Road between River Road and Deer Hill Road. (LWX)
2 E North East	Cecil	MD	A wind gust of 51 knots (59 MPH) was measured by a mesonet at the North East Landfill (DE052). (LWX)

[Kmlwx]

CSU-MLP really lit up for big chunk of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Monday. Not major - but 15% 

[Nomz]

8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

CSU-MLP really lit up for big chunk of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for Monday. Not major - but 15% 

We also got a 15% on the d5 from the SPC

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, Nomz said:

We also got a 15% on the d5 from the SPC

 

[yoda]

 

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

   Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower
   OH Valleys...

   An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east
   to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime
   hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the
   trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an
   already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the
   Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a
   strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and
   much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio
   to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning. 

   While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of
   the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and
   the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected
   with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions.
   Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front,
   potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest
   moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least
   weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of
   strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold
   front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and
   Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and
   just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will
   exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15
   percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into
   the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level
   moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north
   and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley
   vicinity in subsequent outlooks.

   ...Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic...

   Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as
   the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS
   Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly
   flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic.
   Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward
   through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal
   surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support
   backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear.
   Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation
   occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be
   inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead
   of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing
   cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to
   severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the
   warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain.
   Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear
   convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for
   portions of the region.

[Kmlwx]

Honestly the orientation if nothing else of the precip on the models reminds me of some dynamic spring systems. Definitely eyebrow raising to get a Day 5 15%. I'm still not convinced it will be anything substantial, though. We'll see how it looks in NAM range. 

[yoda]

Afternoon AFD from LWX on the threat

KEY MESSAGE 3...Another strong cold front will arrive early next
week, bringing strong winds and the potential for severe thunderstorms.

A warm front will lift toward the area Sunday ahead of a low
pressure system moving into the Great Lakes. Most of the day
should remain dry, but showers will likely move into the area
Sunday night. Increasing southeast to south winds will keep
temperatures above normal.

A strong cold front associated with a powerful low pressure across
the western Great Lks will cross the area Monday. Better moisture
recovery is expected ahead of this front compared to the one Friday
night to result in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms.
Model trends during the past 24 hrs have shown lower pressure values
locally across the area, stronger wind speeds aloft, and better
destabilization resulting in an increasing threat for severe
weather. The storm mode looks mostly linear this time as opposed to
supercells, but the magnitude of the 850-500 mb winds is 20-30 kt
stronger than it was yesterday (Wednesday). While the kinematics
look a lot stronger with this next system, there is still a high
degree of uncertainty with the thermodynamic environment and the
exact timing of the frontal passage with recent trends showing an
earlier frontal passage prior to peak diurnal heating. Regardless of
severe weather, strong winds will accompany this front both in the
pre-frontal and post-frontal environment.

[yoda]

LWX already talking it up for Monday (this morning AFD)

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another strong cold front will arrive Monday,
bringing strong winds and the potential for severe
thunderstorms.

A strong cold front associated with a powerful low pressure across
the western Great Lakes will cross the area Monday. Better moisture
recovery is expected ahead of this front compared to the one
tonight which will result in numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms. Given favorable wind speeds aloft and modest
instability for mid-March, there is a noteworthy threat for
severe weather. The storm mode looks mostly linear this time
with a QLCS of sorts favored in nearly all extended guidance.
While the kinematics look a lot stronger with this next system,
there is still a high degree of uncertainty with the
thermodynamic environment and the exact timing of the frontal
passage with recent trends showing an earlier frontal passage
prior to peak diurnal heating. SPC has a 15% contour on Day 4,
which is not super common in the Mid-Atlantic. Numerous AI and
ML guidance continue to paint a moderate to high end ceiling for
damaging winds with this frontal passage on Monday as well.
Regardless of severe weather, strong winds will accompany this
front both in the pre-frontal and post-frontal environment

[yoda]

Oh okay then

 

[yoda]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Significant severe winds and the potential for a few tornadoes will
   develop on Monday over parts of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

   Models are in good agreement with the large scale pattern on
   Monday/D4, depicting a deep upper trough moving out of the
   Mississippi Valley and ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the
   Mid Atlantic and into to the Northeast. 

   Given the antecedent upper ridging on the previous day, low-level
   southerly winds will help to moisten the air mass well ahead of an
   approaching cold front. By 12Z Monday, 60s F dewpoints will already
   extend from northern GA across the Piedmont and into southeast VA,
   and this plume of moisture will rapidly spread north with near 60 F
   dewpoints into southeast PA by 00Z.

   There appears to be two regimes for severe potential on Monday. 
   First, up to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE may develop well ahead of the
   approaching cold front, and there is some indication that scattered
   convection may occur across the warm sector from mid to late
   afternoon. If this occurs, supercells would be most likely, with
   potential for a few tornadoes from the Carolinas into eastern VA.

   Models also indicate an elongated pressure fall/rise couplet, which
   when combined with 50-70 kt 850 mb winds and extreme low-level
   shear, could easily result in a QLCS along the cold front with
   corridors of significant damaging winds and embedded tornado risk.

[Kmlwx]

CSU-MLP for Monday has wide area of 30% and a max shown of 42.6 right near DC...with hatching showing up in Southern Maryland, SEVA and NE NC. For March - that is extremely impressive....

[yoda]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
526-WVZ050>053-055-141000-
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta-
Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson-
Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire-
Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-
557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West
Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western
Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Wind Advisories are in effect for areas along and west of the Blue
Ridge Mountains through tonight. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are
possible, which could lead to isolated wind damage and power
outages.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible on Monday,
some of which could produce significant damage in spots,
particularly east of the Blue Ridge. Other severe hazards are
possible as well.

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508-
VAZ053>057-527-141000-
Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD-
Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD-
Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA-
Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD-
Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD-
Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA-
Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor-
Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay-
Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River-
Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD-
Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth
Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-
Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George-
Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the
Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through
central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Wind gusts could approach gale-force over the waters this
afternoon into the evening, particularly closer to shore.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible on Monday,
some of which could produce significant damage in spots,
particularly south of I-70. Other severe hazards are possible as
well.

 

[Kmlwx]

As LWX indicated - the thermodynamic environment will be the big question. It seems like the models are in fairly good agreement that the shear environment is going to be pretty insane. Seeing soundings with like 65+ knots of 0-6km shear. Helicity values even for the 0-1km layer are absurd too. But some of these same soundings have CAPE values fairly low. 

I agree that linear is more likely with maybe embedded circulations. But my question is whether this ends up being one of those pencil thin lines with limited lightning if instability is meager. We'll see - but with those shear numbers I think updrafts could get obliterated as well - we've seen that in similar events before...

[Nomz]

D4 30% must be pretty damn rare for this area, especially in mid march, right?

[Kmlwx]

14 minutes ago, Nomz said:

D4 30% must be pretty damn rare for this area, especially in mid march, right?

Yes but if we go by @Eskimo Joe's superstition - these tend to fail. Our best days often are when SPC plays catch up  - I think anecdotally this is sometimes true but it's more probably just mental in that when it's hyped up and it's only a middle of the road event, it sticks in our minds. 

[Kmlwx]

04/19/2013 has been showing up high in the analogs on CIPS for a while now. 

[Eskimo Joe]

D4 setup could be legit if we aren't too socked in with low level clouds, etc.

[Kmlwx]

CIPS has been more anemic than the CSU-MLP page. We'll see how both pages evolve over the next few days. 

[TSSN+]

Euro looks pretty active 

 

[high risk]

It’s going to happen because I have a flight arriving at BWI that evening.   But seriously, you all have nailed it:   Shear will be off the charts, but early spring setups fail a lot here due to the strength of the system causing widespread showers and clouds.  

[TSSN+]

27 minutes ago, high risk said:

It’s going to happen because I have a flight arriving at BWI that evening.   But seriously, you all have nailed it:   Shear will be off the charts, but early spring setups fail a lot here due to the strength of the system causing widespread showers and clouds.  

It’s always cloudy on higher risk days. Always get the “ if it clears out” but hardly ever does lol 

[Kmlwx]

Logan Giles over on X is honking hard for this event. 

[yoda]

19 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Logan Giles over on X is honking hard for this event. 

So is Matthew Cappucci

https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/2032441555785539939

[WxUSAF]

EF1 confirmed for western HoCo from Wednesday!!