psv88 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: That's historic even by AK standards. Canada too-very cold but very little of it made its way into the US so the cold/snowy March calls didn't work out. Maybe it’s historic, maybe it’s not. How do we know what the weather was 300 years ago? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: Average last freeze in Smithtown for the past 30 years is April 12. It really hasn't changed much over that time, despite 1996 being an outlier. Last 32°, Smithtown NY Year Date Low Temp 1996 5/14/1996 32 1997 4/16/1997 32 1998 4/13/1998 32 1999 3/27/1999 29 2000 4/14/2000 29 2001 4/20/2001 32 2002 4/24/2002 32 2003 4/8/2003 31 2004 4/6/2004 31 2005 4/17/2005 30 2006 3/30/2006 32 2007 4/11/2007 28 2008 5/1/2008 32 2009 4/17/2009 32 2010 3/28/2010 30 2011 3/30/2011 30 2012 3/28/2012 30 2013 4/7/2013 32 2014 4/21/2014 31 2015 4/12/2015 32 2016 4/14/2016 32 2017 4/13/2017 32 2018 4/21/2018 32 2019 4/2/2019 26 2020 4/19/2020 30 2021 4/4/2021 32 2022 3/30/2022 28 2023 4/10/2023 30 2024 4/26/2024 31 2025 4/10/2025 32 Average last freeze here in Campbel Hall over the last 20 is April 27. Here is a comparsion of our numbers if interested: Smithtown Campbell Hall 3/30/2006 32 4/30/2006 30 4/11/2007 28 4/11/2007 22 5/1/2008 32 5/1/2008 28 4/17/2009 32 4/17/2009 30 3/28/2010 30 5/11/2010 30 3/30/2011 30 4/22/2011 28 3/28/2012 30 4/30/2012 29 4/7/2013 32 4/27/2013 32 4/21/2014 31 4/25/2014 30 4/12/2015 32 4/26/2015 28 4/14/2016 32 4/21/2016 32 4/13/2017 32 4/9/2017 31 4/21/2018 32 4/24/2018 31 4/2/2019 26 4/29/2019 32 4/19/2020 30 5/14/2020 31 4/4/2021 32 4/23/2021 30 3/30/2022 28 4/30/2022 32 4/10/2023 30 5/15/2023 30 4/26/2024 31 4/27/2024 32 4/10/2025 32 4/18/2025 29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 29 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Average last freeze here in Campbel Hall over the last 20 is April 27. Here is a comparsion of our numbers if interested: Smithtown Cambell Hall 3/30/2006 32 4/30/2006 30 4/11/2007 28 4/11/2007 22 5/1/2008 32 5/1/2008 28 4/17/2009 32 4/17/2009 30 3/28/2010 30 5/11/2010 30 3/30/2011 30 4/22/2011 28 3/28/2012 30 4/30/2012 29 4/7/2013 32 4/27/2013 32 4/21/2014 31 4/25/2014 30 4/12/2015 32 4/26/2015 28 4/14/2016 32 4/21/2016 32 4/13/2017 32 4/9/2017 31 4/21/2018 32 4/24/2018 31 4/2/2019 26 4/29/2019 32 4/19/2020 30 5/14/2020 31 4/4/2021 32 4/23/2021 30 3/30/2022 28 4/30/2022 32 4/10/2023 30 5/15/2023 30 4/26/2024 31 4/27/2024 32 4/10/2025 32 4/18/2025 29 Thanks, that is interesting. For that 20 year period, our average last freeze is April 11. Assuming a similar comparison in the fall, that's at least an extra month of growing season here. Not trivial, especially in the fall, but I'll work those numbers another time. I think the difference in the fall will be even more...it's hard to get to freezing when the LI Sound is still near 60°. Our first fall freeze is sometimes a couple of weeks later than the center of the island, but I don't think there is much difference in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Thanks, that is interesting. For that 20 year period, our average last freeze is April 11. Assuming a similar comparison in the fall, that's at least an extra month of growing season here. Not trivial, especially in the fall, but I'll work those numbers another time. I think the difference in the fall will be even more...it's hard to get to freezing when the LI Sound is still near 60°. Our first fall freeze is sometimes a couple of weeks later than the center of the island, but I don't think there is much difference in the spring. at my old location, 1.2 miles NW of my current location, the average last freeze from 2017 to 2025 was 4/14...earliest was 4/2 in 2019 and latest was 4/26 in 2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 49 minutes ago, psv88 said: Maybe it’s historic, maybe it’s not. How do we know what the weather was 300 years ago? Science uses tree rings, ice core samples, sedimentary rock, etc. to determine temperatures from past years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 10 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Thanks, that is interesting. For that 20 year period, our average last freeze is April 11. Assuming a similar comparison in the fall, that's at least an extra month of growing season here. Not trivial, especially in the fall, but I'll work those numbers another time. I think the difference in the fall will be even more...it's hard to get to freezing when the LI Sound is still near 60°. Our first fall freeze is sometimes a couple of weeks later than the center of the island, but I don't think there is much difference in the spring. For fall numbers I have the following firsts: NWS defined frost (36-32) Visible Frost (not exactly a scientific category) Freeze (32 and below) Hard Freeze (28 and below) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Today EWR: 54 / 34 (-1) NYC: 54 / 38 (0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Unseasonably warm air will briefly move into the region tomorrow. Hights will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Friday will be somewhat cooler with highs reaching the middle 50s. Another cold front could cross the region on tomorrow night or Friday. The front will bring a few showers or thundershowers. The weekend will start on a cold note with the low temperature likely near or even somewhat below freezing in New York City and high temperatures in the middle 40s on Saturday. Sunday will become somewhat milder. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -9.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.585 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.5° (2.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Gore today… 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 The warm spots will make a run on 70° today and 80° next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Looking like a wet pattern will be developing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Looking like a wet pattern will be developing GFS and EURO both very wet for the eastern US 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Took a ride yesterday evening through the Pine Barrens. Rolled up on an active prescribed fire area. There was a recently cut fire break, so I decided to get out and follow it to an orange glow in the distance. I made it to the active burning area. The sounds- the roar of the flames and the endless snaps, pops, and crackles were incredible (and I'd be scared shitless if it were an actual wildfire). It's really cool seeing how fire creates its own microclimate. Wind was otherwise calm around 7 PM but within about a 50 yard radius, the wind was significant stronger, hotter (obviously) and progressed the fire quickly (moving at about 50 feet per minute) 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Looking like a wet pattern will be developing Such is April. Never expect nice Spring weather until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: GFS and EURO both very wet for the eastern US Typical onset of El Nino conditions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Lets see how close to 80 i get today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 56 after a low of 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Lets see how close to 80 i get today Just hit 60 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 64 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Latest NAO and AO predictions are showing it staying positive now. Expect the models to warm up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 57 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Latest NAO and AO predictions are showing it staying positive now. Expect the models to warm up. Hoping we can pull a 90 this April 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Up to 68. Forecast was 62. Nice warm bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Forecast is 74, I'm at 72, so looking good. Jealous that my son is golfing today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 24 minutes ago, FPizz said: Forecast is 74, I'm at 72, so looking good. Jealous that my son is golfing today Our local course opened yesterday...my son played and said it wasn't too wet (which is often the case this time of yr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 31 minutes ago, psv88 said: Up to 68. Forecast was 62. Nice warm bust It’ll always happen this time of year as long as we control the onshore wind and we have sun. Barrier islands stuck at 50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 3 hours ago, FPizz said: Just hit 60 here 75 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 68 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 75 in Dumont, Nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 77 push push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 76 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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