March 2026

[MJO812]

Dont post anything if these runs come true.

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Just 13 days away at the end of March….and on an operational model….what could possibly go wrong?? Lol 

Well, you'll have no idea if you dropped Pivotal, lol (too early)...

[donsutherland1]

The storm currently bringing blizzard conditions to parts of the Upper Midwest will bring a soaking rain to the New York City region tonight and tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. Strong thunderstorms are possible in parts of the area. The rain could end as flurries or a period of wet snow in some of the distant northern and western suburbs.

Following storm, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday

However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive through around March 20th, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. Temperatures should return to the middle and upper 40s by Thursday and the 50s to end the week. Uncertainty about the closing 7-10 days of March has increased. 

The major weather story this week will be the super March heatwave that will develop in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Fresno, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City, and Yuma.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -9.19 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.602 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.5° (1.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Dont post anything if these runs come true.

They won’t.  Look at this week a coastal turned into a massive cutter and the cold air disappeared 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Even if it does, it will be an all-rain event. Temps are going to be in the 50s.

You're not even technically in this geographical forum. Why do you always speak as if you speak for the entire population of the forum when at best you're the southern extreme.

[weathermedic]

 

Tons of lightning all up and down the cold front traversing the country now

[MJO812]

Getting windy

[steve392]

Had some very heavy rains around 3am on/off for about an hour or so.   Winds really blowing too. 

[JerseyWx]

Already 0.6" overnight.  We'll see what today holds.

[Brian5671]

About .50 here so far 

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This heat event will be among the most impressive heat events on record relative to climatology. It will rank up there with the March 2012, June 2021 PNW, September-October 2024 Southwest heat events in terms of peak temperatures relative to normal. The national March high temperature mark of 108° should fall. Numerous cities will surpass not just March, but also April monthly records.

This closest analog in our area for out of season historic warmth and 500mb ridging was probably February 2018 with that record ridge and early 80° heat.

But this heat will be more extended and of a greater magnitude over a larger region. Plus the location and coming a month later allows for much higher actual temperatures. 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

59 / 58 about 0.23 in the bucket overnight.  Windy - southerly flow / scattered storms with the worst / strongest storms likely south and west.  Wild day in PA from heavy / strong thunderstorms to a period of snow.  Ridge west this week trough east after the strong lakes cutting storm monday. Colder Tue / Wed before moderating towards normal Thursday and beyond with overall near normal period. the last 5-7 day looks back and forth perhaps warmer overall.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This closest analog in our area for out of season historic warmth and 500mb ridging was probably February 2018 with that record ridge and early 80° heat.

But this heat will be more extended and of a greater magnitude over a larger region. Plus the location and coming a month later allows for much higher actual temperatures. 

 

 

 

Yes. February 2018 is probably best comparison for this region. It's incredible that the Southwest/West is seeing such an extreme event so soon after the September-October 2024 heat during which Phoenix set or tied daily records on 21 consecutive days and easily set new September and October monthly records.

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 82 (1990)
NYC: 82 (1990)
LGA: 77 (1990)
JFK: 68 (2002)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 17 (1992)
NYC: 13 (1911)
LGA: 19 (1992)
JFK: 18 (1992)


Historical:

1843: A great snowstorm affected areas from the Gulf of Mexico to Maine. Shelbyville, TN received 21 inches. Eight inches fell at Little Rock, AR. 10 inches fell at Memphis, TN and Washington, D.C. and a foot was reported at Baltimore, MD, New York City, NY and Philadelphia, PA. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1870: 24 trains between Springfield, MA and Albany, NY were blocked by a big snowstorm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1885: On this date through the 21st, Pointe-des-Monts, Quebec Canada, received 98 inches of snowfall.

1942 - Two tornadoes, 24 minutes apart, struck Baldwin, MS, resulting in 65 deaths. (David Ludlum)

1942: A deadly tornado outbreak occurred over the Central and Southern US on March 16-17th. The tornado outbreak killed 153 people and injured at least 1,284. The best estimate indicates this event contained 13 F3 tornadoes, 6 F4s, and one F5. The F5 tornado occurred north of Peoria, Illinois, in the towns of Alta, Chillicothe, before crossing the Illinois River and striking the town of Lacon. A quarter of the homes in Lacon were destroyed, and debris was carried for 25 miles.

1975 - A single storm brought 119 inches of snow to Crater Lake, O,R establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - A small but rare tornado touched down perilously close to Disneyland in Anaheim CA. (Storm Data)

1987 - Softball size hail caused millions of dollars damage to automobiles at Del Rio TX. Three persons were injured when hailstones crashed through a shopping mall skylight. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1988 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the Central Rockies. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Centerville UT. Eighteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, including Tallahassee FL with a reading of 24 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A winter storm brought heavy snow and high winds to the southwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Lovelock NV, Salt Lake City UT, and Fort Carson CO. Snow fell at a rate of three inches per hour in the Lake Tahoe area of Nevada. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced large hail and damaging winds from northwest Florida to western South Carolina. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 75 mph at Floridatown FL. Sixteen cities across the northeastern quarter of the nation reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 78 degrees at Burlington VT smashed their previous record for the date by 23 degrees. New York City reported a record high of 82 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002: Anchorage, Alaska on the 16th and 17th: Alaskan snowstorm dumps 28.7 inches of snow on Anchorage, breaking the old daily record of 15.6 inches. Snow amounts range from 24 to 29 inches at lower elevations (Ref. WxDoctor)

2005: A storm surge pushed 33 foot waves, rocks and tons of ice crashing along the Avalon and Baie Verte Peninsulas on the east coast of Newfoundland Canada, causing millions of dollars in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2012: Record heat continues in the Mid-West see the 17th for more information.
• 82 degrees at Chicago-O'Hare was the earliest it has been this warm in Chicago. Previously... the earliest 82 degree reading was not until March 27, 1945.
• Chicago set a new record for most number of 80 degree days in a March with three... the previous record for greatest number of 80 degree days during March was 2 set back in 1986.
• March 16th was the 3rd consecutive day above 80...which shattered the previous record for earliest in the season to have 3 consecutive 80 degree days. Previously the earliest Chicago has ever seen 3 consecutive 80 degree days was back on April 14-16 1976. (Ref. NWS)

[SACRUS]

Midway Dep

EWR: +5.2
NYC: +5.1
LGA: +3.9
JFK: +2.9

[SACRUS]

Looking like near normal overall as we get into the last week of the month - back and forth warmer / cooler progression

 

[SACRUS]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. February 2018 is probably best comparison for this region. It's incredible that the Southwest/West is seeing such an extreme event so soon after the September-October 2024 heat during which Phoenix set or tied daily records on 21 consecutive days and easily set new September and October monthly records.

I think mid-April 2002 and March 2012 is the best comparison. They came on the heels of warm and snowless winters, which is what we have in the West. February 2018, on the other hand, was just an outlier warm month, in what was otherwise a cold winter and early spring.

If we go back to the 20th century, then the April 1976 is the most anomolous early heat wave ever in the Northeastern US. Providence recorded a 98-degree day in April, which not only smashed the April monthly record, but it was higher than any temperature recorded in May and (until last year's 100) June. [Providence breaking the June monthly high by 3 degrees last year is another amazing feat.] Temperatures never got that hot again in many places during the rest of the Bicentennial summer.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Looking like near normal overall as we get into the last week of the month - back and forth warmer / cooler progression

 

No cold anywhere all the sudden (outside of Canada)

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I think mid-April 2002 and March 2012 is the best comparison. They came on the heels of warm and snowless winters, which is what we have in the West. February 2018, on the other hand, was just an outlier warm month, in what was otherwise a cold winter and early spring.

If we go back to historical records, then the April 1976 is the most anomolous early heat wave ever. Providence recorded a 98-degree day in April, which not only smashed the April monthly record, but it was higher than any temperature recorded in May and (until last year's 100) June. [Providence breaking the June monthly high by 3 degrees last year is another amazing feat.]

@bluewavewas referring to the New York City region. Yes, the March 2012 heatwave, June 2021 PNW heatwave, April 1976 one (no longer as anomalous today due to the 2002 heatwave) are also benchmark heat events.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No cold anywhere all the sudden (outside of Canada)

Yeah looks like the PV consolidated

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No cold anywhere all the sudden (outside of Canada)

Was referring to the period as a whole should for the 7 - 10 days be near normal - a couple of colder days mixed in with normal/ warmer days.  

[NJwx85]

If the warm front is able to lift a bit further North, today could be a significant severe weather day, especially West of the Hudson. You can easily see here where the wind shift is and why storms should weaken as they get close to the city.

 

[MJO812]

There is always a possibility of wintry weather as we go through March. While I will continue to look at the models, I think the winter is just about over. 

 

Very sad ending to a great winter 

[Freezing Drizzle]

Dense fog still holding on here. 61 F, DP 60 F.

[NJwx85]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There is always a possibility of wintry weather as we go through March. While I will continue to look at the models, I think the winter is just about over. 

 

Very sad ending to a great winter 

I grade this Winter an A. It started off with multiple accumulating snow events in December, followed by a 20"+ snowfall in January and another double digit snowfall in February, with a few smaller events mixed in. The last of my snowpack didn't melt until the 80's last week, some of it still left from the January storm. We also had multiple episodes of brutal and lasting cold. Best winter locally here since 2019. 

Now it's time to put away the shovels and get ready for Spring. My crocuses are already popping up.

[psv88]

57 and dog. 0.38” so far

[jm1220]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There is always a possibility of wintry weather as we go through March. While I will continue to look at the models, I think the winter is just about over. 

 

Very sad ending to a great winter 

Every winter here has down periods. We’re not in the Yukon. 95-96 had an awful late Jan into Feb, 2010-11 essentially ended after 2/1, 14-15 didn’t get started until late Jan. This winter was about as wall to wall as you’ll ever see here. If it’s over now, that’s still a huge win. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Every winter here has down periods. We’re not in the Yukon. 95-96 had an awful late Jan into Feb, 2010-11 essentially ended after 2/1, 14-15 didn’t get started until late Jan. This winter was about as wall to wall as you’ll ever see here. If it’s over now, that’s still a huge win. 

Defintely 

Best winter in over a decade here. 

[MJO812]

Marquette Webcam

http://livecam.nmu.edu/1/