March 2026

[MJO812]

Dont post anything if these runs come true.

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Just 13 days away at the end of March….and on an operational model….what could possibly go wrong?? Lol 

Well, you'll have no idea if you dropped Pivotal, lol (too early)...

[donsutherland1]

The storm currently bringing blizzard conditions to parts of the Upper Midwest will bring a soaking rain to the New York City region tonight and tomorrow. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. Strong thunderstorms are possible in parts of the area. The rain could end as flurries or a period of wet snow in some of the distant northern and western suburbs.

Following storm, a shot of much cooler air could arrive on Tuesday. Lows in New York City could fall to the middle and upper 20s with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday

However, with the AO likely to remain generally positive through around March 20th, the cool period likely won't be as prolonged as had been the case during this past winter's cold regimes. Temperatures should return to the middle and upper 40s by Thursday and the 50s to end the week. Uncertainty about the closing 7-10 days of March has increased. 

The major weather story this week will be the super March heatwave that will develop in much of the western U.S. March monthly records are likely to be smashed in numerous cities, including Albuquerque, Flagstaff, Fresno, Las Vegas, Palm Springs, Phoenix, Reno, Salt Lake City, and Yuma.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was -9.19 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.602 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.5° (1.7° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.