2/26 - Follow-up Hopium Battlezone Storm

[jayyy]

It’s hard not to trust the GFS, given how accurate it’s been this winter.

This week? Or this winter?

[DDweatherman]

Well, a lot of models are around us. There’s been a back-and-forth each cycle between precept being over us or south of us.
Let’s see if we can get a little bit of juicing/amping today now that the bomb is gone. The system needs to be a little bit stronger if we want the heavy precip that will help our temps cooperate. I guess there is a chance it could be flattening the flow.

[AdamHLG]

If anything can be a little stronger I hope it’s the sun. This NYC bomb broke me. That was the storm of the year (or decade or even century beating 1978 if you’re Providence). Bring on spring. We got the January sleet bomb and the 2 week frozen moonscape single digit tundra. That was uber impressive and tracking that was a great ride. We can try again next year but I want to turn my outside pipes back on again and start washing my car.


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[DDweatherman]

8 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

If anything can be a little stronger I hope it’s the sun. This NYC bomb broke me. That was the storm of the year (or decade or even century beating 1978 if you’re Providence). Bring on spring. We got the January sleet bomb and the 2 week frozen moonscape single digit tundra. That was uber impressive and tracking that was a great ride. We can try again next year but I want to turn my outside pipes back on again and start washing my car.


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Don’t worry after 12z we’ll delete this thread. But then the storm will probably reappear with 1-3” over us on 18z runs. To think some had 4-6” totals when this thing was opened. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Don’t worry after 12z we’ll delete this thread. But then the storm will probably reappear with 1-3” over us on 18z runs. To think some had 4-6” totals when this thing was opened. 

Or convert it to follow the fairly significant threat 6 days out. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Or convert it to follow the fairly significant threat 6 days out. 

Don't be so cocky! 

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't be so cocky! 

To be fair, that one has some legs and I’d exchange one for the other…weekend rule ish? Late Sunday?

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

To be fair, that one has some legs and I’d exchange one for the other…weekend rule ish? Late Sunday?

Looks like Monday morning start if there’s a storm. Good let’s try a weekday so the kids get another long weekend…

[Bubbler86]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

To be fair, that one has some legs and I’d exchange one for the other…weekend rule ish? Late Sunday?

And I was not being cocky, just trying to save your drivership if this one does not work out.  

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

And I was not being cocky, just trying to save your drivership if this one does not work out.  

That’s true, I don’t want my license revoked. I knew coming in this was a longshot even though it’s an easy way to win around here…we’d rather do complicated or non ideal setups 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

And I was not being cocky, just trying to save your drivership if this one does not work out.  

I said it after the first failed threat in December, we need all models on board if we expect to score. I should have stuck with that premise over the weekend but put my chips on the failed, overperformer modeling. Oh well, just another live and never learn in the wacky, weenie world of snowpium.

As for next week, I haven't even looked at it, taking the one threat/failure at a time approach. One thing is for sure, not saying they will be right, but all modeling ends winter after next week. So if it's going to happen, next week is it.

[clskinsfan]

Haha. Took a break from some model runs and come back to both the GFS and EURO a miss to the south out here. It is getting comical at this point. Too far north, south, east and west is the Winchester way. 

I have started looking at properties out near JonJon. Was just hoping to avoid the additional hour to the beaches when I retire. Driving when your old sucks.

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I said it after the first failed threat in December, we need all models on board if we expect to score. I should have stuck with that premise over the weekend but put my chips on the failed, overperformer modeling. Oh well, just another live and never learn in the wacky, weenie world of snowpium.

As for next week, I haven't even looked at it, taking the one threat/failure at a time approach. One thing is for sure, not saying they will be right, but all modeling ends winter after next week. So if it's going to happen, next week is it.

I would unfortunately agree, at least as it pertains to wintery precip. 

[baltosquid]

RGEM with basically an M/D line and no one else event lol. At least it was better than 06z.

[mitchnick]

Gfs is decent.

Meh, inch or 2. Looked better on surface map than snowfall map.

[paulythegun]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Gfs is decent 

Precip max between 10am and 1pm. can't catch a break. 

[baltosquid]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs is decent.

Meh, inch or 2. Looked better on surface map than snowfall map.

Really need something like the RRFS (both the standard and the MPAS) look but south a bit to get much of a win south of the M/D. So I’m not optimistic given my massive skepticism of them at this range! But at least it seems like we’re not trending even more POS squashed at 12z.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS: cut this at least in half since it is falling in the afternoon.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS: cut this at least in half since it is falling in the afternoon.

I got so use to seeing Kuchera maps noticeably higher than 10:1 from all the cold, now they're back to reminding me where I live. Bleh

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Haha. Took a break from some model runs and come back to both the GFS and EURO a miss to the south out here. It is getting comical at this point. Too far north, south, east and west is the Winchester way. 

I have started looking at properties out near JonJon. Was just hoping to avoid the additional hour to the beaches when I retire. Driving when your old sucks.

There's absolutely no worse place to be.  Urban centers at sea level next to water get way more snow than us.  

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS: cut this at least in half since it is falling in the afternoon.

I'll take my 1.3" after cutting it in half and enjoy it. 

[LeesburgWx]

Cannot believe I am being pulled back in for an inch of snow

[Grothar of Herndon]

21 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Cannot believe I am being pulled back in for an inch of snow

I am In to the End! Keeping hope alive!!! 

[WEATHER53]

It’s going to move southward 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said:

Cannot believe I am being pulled back in for an inch of snow

You cannot have enough snow. 

[baltosquid]

NAM’s a step closer. Verbatim it gives a dusting to Delmarva. But in the leadup, you can see how the flow is trending over the last 3 runs:

See the little shortwave getting more emphasis to our west. If this is gonna work at all, need to get that to be stronger but not too strong.

NAM 3km had similar changes but no pity flakes.

[stormtracker]

GFS still has the system,...sfc just sucks.  Heard this story before.

Anyway, wonder if there are any accumulations 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS still has the system,...sfc just sucks.  Heard this story before

Would be pretty out at least. Might be a flee back to the burbs kind of afternoon for me again. 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Would be pretty out at least. Might be a flee back to the burbs kind of afternoon for me again. 

Boy what a surprise on that prediction 12z wouldn’t show much and 18z would bring a different solution.

[DDweatherman]

Why can’t we lock in that gfs and let chips fall. I’ll take that output verbatim. Gfs ready to take the lead again?