March Madness

[kdxken]

It's time! 

 

[kdxken]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well... given another 70 years of unabated CC and maybe that will have become common March practice.  

70 years? 

 

[WxWatcher007]

What a beaut. Snowicane 

 

[dendrite]

Nice

[CoastalWx]

Why can’t we get that

[Typhoon Tip]

Should freak people out that that’s climatologically six months ahead of schedule - assuming that’s a warm core…

oh ha, never mind

[dendrite]

Pretty wild

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, polar lows are interesting

[dendrite]

There will be case studies on this. It’s been pretty much right over the radar site for its life cycle. 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS look good

Icon way north

Congrats maine

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

There will be case studies on this. It’s been pretty much right over the radar site for its life cycle. 

It’s incredibly cool to watch

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Icon way north

Congrats maine

Lol... Icon

[CoastalWx]

Signs of Napril on the models. At least to start. 

[Damage In Tolland]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Signs of Napril on the models. At least to start. 

Models also showed a snowy and cold mid/ late Morch and that turned out terribly wrong 

[UnitedWx]

13 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

IDK, almost 40” of snow on the ground a few weeks ago and almost 2.5” of rain yesterday and I don’t see much in the way of runoff while driving around and not many basement pumping calls came in yesterday…..I think we are drier than you think

Certainly not dry IMBY. We had pretty much all of the snow melt before the rain, so you aren't going to see excess runoff. I was doing some yard cleanup yesterday afternoon and even the frost has gone very quickly. Those drought maps are as suspect as a BDL snow meaurement

[UnitedWx]

15 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well... given another 70 years of unabated CC and maybe that will have become common March practice.  

By then we'll be seeding the atmosphere and folks will be bitching that it's become far too cold... You will NEVER win

[powderfreak]

Ohhh GFS.  

 

[CoastalWx]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models also showed a snowy and cold mid/ late Morch and that turned out terribly wrong 

Yeah, it’s over.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

50/50 ...  heh, which ironically, could be the coupled variance result, but I mean just my confidence in the matter.

The thing is, the global temperatures are something just shy of unnervingly close to doing something similar to what happened in 2023 - which took off prior to the actual +ENSO.  

That year was buried inside the global mean doing something else ... Or was it?  I mean the RONI stuff sort of skews culpability in the differentials.  You kind of want a non-RONI based outlook in tandem, so to make a comparison to the RONI outlook - see the difference.   Digress..  

Anyway, "IF" the wholesale globe bursts again, I don't feel personally as confident that a warm SST band is as forcing that way.   I'm curious what this rusty curve looks like in 2 months

Depends....if this burgeoning +ENSO is as strong as some guidance implies, I think it will be plenty discernible, albeit perhaps with some residual cool ENSO residue.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ohhh GFS.  

 

Shoot me. Just enough to be a PITA. I’m all set with the wintry truffle butter.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Shoot me. Just enough to be a PITA. I’m all set with the wintry truffle butter.

Could see you hips and lips shoveling a path to the chickens to this song. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could see you hips and lips shoveling a path to the chickens to this song. 
 

 

Charts just flying around the chicken coop..

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Signs of Napril on the models. At least to start. 

Seems like it's mostly the operational GFS?

The Euro and CMC ( though the latter only out to 10 days) appear to be seeded by anti CC moles in the modeling division of their foreign sources.

heh  but the operational GFS is trying to lift the ambient polar boundary somewhat N. It's not obvious like you said. "sighs". But it's coherent enough. 

Shit, we're after the Equinox in a coffee break.  Eventually, the Euro/CMC are going to lose to the fact the June is still coming.  In other words, seasonality gives a nod to the operational GFS.  

[Fozz]

I haven’t posted much this month because there hasn’t been much to post about except warmth and snowmelt.

After a good winter, it’s been a very disappointing March.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

By then we'll be seeding the atmosphere and folks will be bitching that it's become far too cold... You will NEVER win

If there was zero predictive skill prior to the 2023 entire planetary systemic bounce in temperature by a whole degree C spanning a single month in spring - just 1 example of not really understanding the planetary system, and a whopper - how is it that humanity knows what will result if they start tinkering with seeding?  

I mean I realize you're likely in part being glib for humor's sake ..but I've heard this elsewhere. I just fail to see the legitimacy of that.

Some scientist might have proffered that in jest in some conference ...could have even been sarcastic. Who knows. But then the comment gets extracted and repurposed, out of context, and now all the cartoon watchers - which let's be honest, is the 92.34% of all people and the civility they create - are running with it.

 

[dendrite]

9 hours ago, dendrite said:

Pretty wild

 

Landfall

 

 

[Fozz]

19 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I still have PTSD from my week out there-skiied on rocks, mud, sticks and small trees sticking up through the "snow"

You should’ve just skied east. Vermont instead of Colorado. I’d say if you book a big ski trip months in advance then it might help to get a refundable option just in case. I’ve postponed or canceled a few trips before.

I know you usually hit Breckenridge or Vail in early Feb.

[Fozz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If there was zero predictive skill prior to the 2023 entire planetary systemic bounce in temperature by a whole degree C spanning a single month in spring, how is it that humanity knows what will result if they start tinkering with seeding?  

Geoengineering is probably a bad idea but I think if the world hits 3.0°C+ (God forbid), it might become the less bad option.

Unless future AI can invent a vast carbon capture system that scales on a planetary level.

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, Fozz said:

You should’ve just skied east. Vermont instead of Colorado. I’d say if you book a big ski trip months in advance then it might help to get a refundable option just in case. I’ve postponed or canceled a few trips before.

I know you usually hit Breckenridge or Vail in early Feb.

Yeah it's mostly tradition for us and we had to cancel by 1/1/26 and we thought "oh it will get better"  LOL it didn't. I skiied in a sweatshirt the last day there it was that warm.     But the hotel said about 25% of their bookings did cancel...a truly horrific year for the businesses out there that depend on robust tourism.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

Geoengineering is probably a bad idea but I think if the world hits 3.0°C+ (God forbid), it might become the less bad desperate option.

Unless future AI can invent a vast carbon capture system that scales on a planetary level.

"desperate" is more like it ...but I know what you meant.  

It's really funny - all these complex solutions when the simple answer is, stop creating greenhouse gas at a faster rate than the background geological processes of this world can compensate. 

It's really that simple.  

Carbon sequestration is probably the best solution I've ever heard/read about.   However, ...that doesn't do any good if the sequestration only matches the production at the other side.  The sequestering tech would have to somehow gulp in that mass of the Earth's atmosphere, every year.  One Earth Atmosphere/yr process rate.  Otherwise, even won't cut it. Because what 2023 showed us - most likely - is that the Earth's system may not have caught up with the d(fluxes) of the last century's-worth of Industrial farts.  The latter happened too quickly.

I read a study that the increase in C02 since 1900 exceeds any increase spanning 430 million years of geological history and reconstruction/analysis, using everything from deep sediment coring to carbon dating.  That's what it means - most likely - to taut a system... The 2023 temperature burst? strikes me as some of that tension being released - just a small fraction.  If one follows this logically, it begs the question, 'what happens should all that tension release at once?'  First would need to prove whether or not the wholesale planetary system has in fact caught up with the "geological event" of liberating 3 billion years of fossil fuel volatility to the environment in just 200 years..  You know, there's argument as to whether we live in the "Anthropocene" epoch - the proposed current era of Earth's history. 

One can imagine, should the proverbial rubber band snap all at once and the extinction wave flashes over, the mere 800 survivors out of 8 billion will definitely have an opinion in that debate. 

Anyway, seeding?  These are like Road Runner/'ACME' solutions.  Unless the compendium of the greater science brain knows every possible quantum consequence of effecting a system, ...not to mention the unpredictable realm beyond the synergistic emergence horizon..., anything that is done at a planetary scale is probably going to result in the greatest Darwin award in history.