March Madness

[kdxken]

It's time! 

 

[kdxken]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well... given another 70 years of unabated CC and maybe that will have become common March practice.  

70 years? 

 

[WxWatcher007]

What a beaut. Snowicane 

 

[dendrite]

Nice

[CoastalWx]

Why can’t we get that

[Typhoon Tip]

Should freak people out that that’s climatologically six months ahead of schedule - assuming that’s a warm core…

oh ha, never mind

[dendrite]

Pretty wild

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, polar lows are interesting

[dendrite]

There will be case studies on this. It’s been pretty much right over the radar site for its life cycle. 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS look good

Icon way north

Congrats maine

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

There will be case studies on this. It’s been pretty much right over the radar site for its life cycle. 

It’s incredibly cool to watch

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Icon way north

Congrats maine

Lol... Icon

[CoastalWx]

Signs of Napril on the models. At least to start. 

[Damage In Tolland]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Signs of Napril on the models. At least to start. 

Models also showed a snowy and cold mid/ late Morch and that turned out terribly wrong 

[UnitedWx]

13 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

IDK, almost 40” of snow on the ground a few weeks ago and almost 2.5” of rain yesterday and I don’t see much in the way of runoff while driving around and not many basement pumping calls came in yesterday…..I think we are drier than you think

Certainly not dry IMBY. We had pretty much all of the snow melt before the rain, so you aren't going to see excess runoff. I was doing some yard cleanup yesterday afternoon and even the frost has gone very quickly. Those drought maps are as suspect as a BDL snow meaurement

[UnitedWx]

15 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well... given another 70 years of unabated CC and maybe that will have become common March practice.  

By then we'll be seeding the atmosphere and folks will be bitching that it's become far too cold... You will NEVER win

[powderfreak]

Ohhh GFS.  

 

[CoastalWx]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Models also showed a snowy and cold mid/ late Morch and that turned out terribly wrong 

Yeah, it’s over.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

50/50 ...  heh, which ironically, could be the coupled variance result, but I mean just my confidence in the matter.

The thing is, the global temperatures are something just shy of unnervingly close to doing something similar to what happened in 2023 - which took off prior to the actual +ENSO.  

That year was buried inside the global mean doing something else ... Or was it?  I mean the RONI stuff sort of skews culpability in the differentials.  You kind of want a non-RONI based outlook in tandem, so to make a comparison to the RONI outlook - see the difference.   Digress..  

Anyway, "IF" the wholesale globe bursts again, I don't feel personally as confident that a warm SST band is as forcing that way.   I'm curious what this rusty curve looks like in 2 months

Depends....if this burgeoning +ENSO is as strong as some guidance implies, I think it will be plenty discernible, albeit perhaps with some residual cool ENSO residue.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Ohhh GFS.  

 

Shoot me. Just enough to be a PITA. I’m all set with the wintry truffle butter.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Shoot me. Just enough to be a PITA. I’m all set with the wintry truffle butter.

Could see you hips and lips shoveling a path to the chickens to this song. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could see you hips and lips shoveling a path to the chickens to this song. 
 

 

Charts just flying around the chicken coop..

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Signs of Napril on the models. At least to start. 

Seems like it's mostly the operational GFS?

The Euro and CMC ( though the latter only out to 10 days) appear to be seeded by anti CC moles in the modeling division of their foreign sources.

heh  but the operational GFS is trying to lift the ambient polar boundary somewhat N. It's not obvious like you said. "sighs". But it's coherent enough. 

Shit, we're after the Equinox in a coffee break.  Eventually, the Euro/CMC are going to lose to the fact the June is still coming.  In other words, seasonality gives a nod to the operational GFS.