March Madness

[SouthCoastMA]

Tolland now Jersey climo?

[dendrite]

And he thought he could protect his pack.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=G3147&hours=168

[512high]

39 for the low @ 42 light breeze, shop heat back on....

[SouthCoastMA]

Should get well into the 50s today

[Typhoon Tip]

Technically not a back door front.

Not according to WPC's last analysis.    It 'sa front coming down steeply from the N but it's not back dooring

this is more synoptically driven than a meso-beta scaled BD effect.   Also, with that high building ESE toward the Maritime the way it is modeled to do so means that there is no way to 'retreat' or really even mix out that mass prior to main frontal sweep early tomorrow.

Case closed.  enjoy you're dog shit New England curse.

[dendrite]

Whatever you want to call it…it has more momentum on the BD angle of the front. The “cold” over upstate NY gets bullied out pretty easily by the WAA push.

[dendrite]

+28 for ORH yesterday…that’s the highest departure since April 2023.

I had to go back to Jan 2020 to find one higher. Of course they’re all positives. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's semantics, sure ... but I just thought it was interesting. I cracked that open this morning, thinking I'd see a BD yet that's a synoptic normal front. 

whatever, the flow is NE and rudely steeling yesterday's joy;  no one outside this social media is either aware nor gives a shit about the differences.  agreed -

 

 

[WinterWolf]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

41 here. Party is over.

While I hope you’re right…I want the streets cleaned up so I can keep the truck clean.  
 

There is no way you can know this..and you know it.  March has 3 full weeks to go, and with Mr. PV hanging close by…it may not be over.   But I do hope you are correct.  Beautiful morning here…so much for the NAM getting it right today with cool and damp. What a POS. 

[Brian5671]

NAM fail today.   Already 50 here.   Another nice one on tap.   Let's get rid of more snow piles

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

While I hope you’re right…I want the streets cleaned up so I can keep the truck clean.  
 

There is no way you can know this..and you know it.  March has 3 full weeks to go, and with Mr. PV hanging close by…it may not be over.   But I do hope you are correct.  Beautiful morning here…so much for the NAM getting it right today with cool and damp. What a POS. 

I can look ahead and see the pattern and know it. I’m not talking about a random fluke either. I’m not counting on that. The overall pattern looks done. And I’m not counting a sloppy inch or two that’s gone an hour later either.

[Typhoon Tip]

actually initializing elevated convection over the top of this newly arrived dome too -

y'all may even get wet in mid NH

[CoastalWx]

Next week was the real shot and that shit the bed. I know the 0ZGFS was trying to hint at something a little later, but I don’t see any model agreement showing that.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

actually initializing elevated convection over the top of this newly arrived dome too -

y'all may even get wet in mid NH

Can tell there is elevated instability noted by the cumulus. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week was the real shot and that shit the bed. I know the 0ZGFS was trying to hint at something a little later, but I don’t see any model agreement showing that.

Lol…And the longer range can’t shit the bed yet again…cuz that never happens lol.   Really?  You’re smarter than that. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week was the real shot and that shit the bed. I know the 0ZGFS was trying to hint at something a little later, but I don’t see any model agreement showing that.

Totally disagree. PV is near. Still active. Time will tell. One SW timed right 

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I can look ahead and see the pattern and know it. I’m not talking about a random fluke either. I’m not counting on that. The overall pattern looks done. And I’m not counting a sloppy inch or two that’s gone an hour later either.

Not in this conversation but ... I sense that depending on March as a wintry month has gradually lessening support in reality -

 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can tell there is elevated instability noted by the cumulus. 

I saw that.. .interesting high based towers

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally disagree. PV is near. Still active. Time will tell. One SW timed right 

This. While I’m good with it being over.  There are possibilities as you point out.  Will Scott be humbled again this winter…

[Sey-Mour Snow]

56 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Tolland now Jersey climo?

He might hit 70.. looks like 80s for NJ

[Sey-Mour Snow]

LOL GFS is 3-6" of snow on the grass for DC.. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

He might hit 70.. looks like 80s for NJ

Gorgeous here…let’s get another 70’s day, and then snow tomorrow afternoon. 

[Typhoon Tip]

There is nothing false in intimating that the risk for wintry event, next week, "shit the bed" in the models. 

That's essentially true. 

It may be fair to say that an event could return in modeling? 

However,  there are other indicators suggesting that those odds are pretty long. 

It's just that there are those that don't like the circumstance at hand, much less when someone iron pans the reality.  They read it,  ... they react.  Usually by picking apart specific word choice to tailor a some way to make it wrong. Heh. okay

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Gorgeous here…let’s get another 70’s day, and then snow tomorrow afternoon. 

I’m already up 11 from yesterday at 9am 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This. While I’m good with it being over.  There are possibilities as you point out.  Will Scott be humbled again this winter…

Good luck to you guys 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

LOL GFS is 3-6" of snow on the grass for DC.. 

best spot to be with that. Weakens here 

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally disagree. PV is near. Still active. Time will tell. One SW timed right 

PV is way the hell in nrn Canada. 

[weatherwiz]

If anyone wants or is looking for winter storms, the northern Rockies, northern Plains, and upper-Midwest is where you'll want to be

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Wild in nyc metro , upper 80s ? 

[SouthCoastMA]

3/20 was another missed opportunity. Have a decent shortwave coming out of the gulf and the ridge just gets pushed east/trough lifts out beforehand.