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March Madness


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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Still time for something before mid month because pattern can support it, but it gets harder and harder…at least around here.

Well, it's not a climo-thing for me...it's a "the set up would blow in January"-thing....looks like we are going to have a 50/50 High.

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1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Yup today will be the warmest day

That's not what I said so don't "yup" me... haha.

I said the NAM may not be right about the magnitude.

I also said the NAM could be wrong about the absolute wind direction - if it's more 240 than indirect cooling is likelier confined to SE zones. 

The NAM is right to cool the air mass that passes over the Bite water region NE of Jersey, in general

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We will get today in with full cover but that should do it. What a run though. Solid cover 12/26-1/14 and 1/18 to 3/9 here in death valley and I think there were at least a few days earlier in December. 6 inches or greater depth 1/26-3/8. As far as I am concerned that's close enough to wire to wire down here in the tropics.

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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's not what I said so don't "yup" me... haha.

I said the NAM may not be right about the magnitude.

I also said the NAM could be wrong about the absolute wind direction - if it's more 240 than indirect cooling is likelier confined to SE zones. 

The NAM is right to cool the air mass that passes over the Bite water region NE of Jersey, in general

"Yuuuup" 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Still time for something before mid month because pattern can support it, but it gets harder and harder…at least around here.

Here’s The big takeaway…this always happens as we approach the mid range…the models lose the system either out to sea, or it turns into a cutter, or gets shredded. This is no different.  Each time this year they’ve come back. The pattern supports a storm, that’s the important part. We will see where this heads over the course of this week. signal is there.  
 

Anybody who thought the models wouldn’t deviate from 8-10 days out was fooling themselves.  This loss of the system was coming…it always does. 
 

Maybe this time it doesn’t come back, it’s as good a possibility as any, but we don’t know that yet.  See where it stands come the end of the week…and that’s a ways out. 

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