Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Very good call. I was hoping we would pull something off. 

My final call was 2-4", in line with NWS. Can't predict the future, but I should have known that these rain-to-snow scenarios rarely work for us here. Climo just won out. 

I cant see locations.  Where are you?

[bncho]

Still puking 

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol....told y'all the last week of Feb was bad fortune for warning level snow! This definitely will NOT count--best we get is a couple inches during this week. Gotta be either before Feb 20th or after March 1st!

BWI literally got 6.3 inches of snow nearly 11 years to the day - Feb 21st, 2015. Your superstitious view on late February warning-level snow is really just a byproduct of the fact that warning level snow at any time of winter is incredibly rare, but it also just isn't true. 

[Flying Bouncy House]

8 minutes ago, Kay said:

LWX seems to think that central MD, the eastern WV panhandle, and south into the VA piedmont will get a piece of the norlun trough, and the upper level energy dropping in from the NW tonight (paraphrasing from AFD 3 hours ago). Maybe DOA calls for some of these areas premature?

What Norlun?  It’s going to be 150 miles east.

[TheColtrane]

Hey stop me if you've heard this one before in the DMV:

• Marginal temps
• Global models showing good totals several days out!
• Short-term models showing good totals 1-2 days out!!!
• Marginal temps
• Bust

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Kay said:

@TSSN+ @DDweatherman thoughts?

2-4” from it is my plan for us so long as it develops out by HGR and has the intensity modeled.

[Kay]

Just now, Flying Bouncy House said:

What Norlun?  It’s going to be 150 miles east.

LWX believes it will set up in "portions of the area" I typed.

[Wetbulbs88]

3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I cant see locations.  Where are you?

Chevy Chase. I live in Admo, DC, but am here while we're renovating the kitchen. Thought I'd be in a better position here but didn't matter. 

[WxUSAF]

0.7”. 0.3” last hour. Goes without saying but even a seasonal airmass leading into this would have made a big difference 

[Kay]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

2-4” from it is my plan for us so long as it develops out by HGR and has the intensity modeled.

OK well I wasn't asking for accums thoughts, but that's great as it seemed you were confidently declaring the storm busted and over for some of these areas.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

0.7”. 0.3” last hour. Goes without saying but even a seasonal airmass leading into this would have made a big difference 

Does this fit psu’s narrative that 20 years ago we woulda gotten 3-6” by now?

[MillvilleWx]

Man, the deformation axis over the eastern shore is going to be WILD. 2-3”/hr rates in some of these at this point. Got a nice coastal front signature near Fenwick and the MD/DE border at the coast. Incredible 

[Eskimo Joe]

Transformer blew in the neighborhood. Most of the area in the dark. Trees starting to sag with only 1" - 2" of snow on them

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Chevy Chase. I live in Admo, DC, but am here while we're renovating the kitchen. Thought I'd be in a better position here but didn't matter. 

You still have a chance tonight.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Kay said:

OK well I wasn't asking for accums thoughts, but that's great as it seemed you were confidently declaring the storm busted and over for some of these areas.

Well I am for 81 corridor from MRB to OKV/Winchester. Maybe 1/2” left. Where are you located? Sorry I’m on mobile. 

[Weather Will]

Winter storm warning  forecast...

[Flying Bouncy House]

2 minutes ago, Kay said:

LWX believes it will set up in "portions of the area" I typed.

Cool.  I’m just going to assume they are wrong again.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Does this fit psu’s narrative that 20 years ago we woulda gotten 3-6” by now?

I never think it’s that simple to just subtract 2F. It was a dog shit antecedent airmass. It happens. It was dog shit for the beaches too and they just won, that’s a Nina for you.

[weatherbook]

A goose just landed in the front yard in the snow. I've never seen that happen in a snowstorm. We're approaching 2" in Oakton.

[gunny23]

10 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

Moco offices and schools 2 hour delay. No word on gov...

OPM code yellow. Director giving early unofficial word. 2 hr delay, unscheduled leave/telework.

Loudoun just closed

[Kay]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Well I am for 81 corridor from MRB to OKV/Winchester. Maybe 1/2” left. Where are you located? Sorry I’m on mobile. 

I'm nowhere near you, this was not a imby thing, it was based on reading the last few pages. Best of luck. I'm in Harford but actually thinking good thoughts for the wester weenies.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I never think it’s that simple to just subtract 2F. It was a dog shit antecedent airmass. It happens. It was dog shit for the beaches too and they just won, that’s a Nina for you.

On this one I’m with you, airmass leading in was a turd and larger pattern were in isn’t ideal either. There are some good transient pieces in place, but it could be better. 

[gunny23]

7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I cant see locations.  Where are you?

Someone wisely pointed out last storm if you turn your phone sideways, you can see locations

[bncho]

Thought this photo was cool or something, idk

[Kay]

3 minutes ago, Flying Bouncy House said:

Cool.  I’m just going to assume they are wrong again.

They may be. We shall see! Good luck.

[rjvanals]

Just hit an inch in Potomac with Snow 32f

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Winter storm warning  forecast...

They never gave us a warning out here. So not faulting them for our forecast. It was good. We will still have some snow showers pass through tonight I'm sure. But the good stuff is east of the Blue ridge. We had our fun earlier today though. 

[snowmagnet]

3 minutes ago, weatherbook said:

A goose just landed in the front yard in the snow. I've never seen that happen in a snowstorm. We're approaching 2" in Oakton.

That's funny. Maybe he is pointing the way to the Norlun. 

[Nomz]

Norlun is pretty clearly defined on radar now. Definitely wider than 10 miles lol but could condense as it creeps east.

[DraydenWX]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Winter storm warning  forecast...

 

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Winter storm warning  forecast...