LeesburgWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, bncho said: YO THAT ALBERTA VORT IS PHASING I THINK Bring us home bncho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, DDweatherman said: H5 is souther, and wester, and amper on the Nam so far lol Following the boundary? Wouldn't be the first time that's happened with mild weather leading in. Kinda makes more sense than a further east solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Based off the 18z suites thus far, mostly short term guidance, the changeover window for many is 15z in the far western suburbs to 19z for the I-95 corridor. Will be very interesting to see how this plays out tomorrow from a nowcasting standpoint. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, bncho said: well, i'm VERY glad i live where i live. just far east enough to get into the CCB, plus 400' elevation Yes, this is one of those times, at least during the day and early evening tomorrow. When those of us who live on the "hills" just above the fall line at 300ft or above can do slightly better than those nearby at lower elevation. You will probably beat me with your extra 100 feet lol. The march 2013 fail storm was like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Parents driving from Wilmington Amtrak to Easton on the Eastern Shore tomorrow afternoon. What time do we think it will be a safe drive until?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Jake Wx said: That's 0z lol 2 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Nam is still playing catchup with the amplitude of the western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3k is a beat down again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Oh... okay (18z NAM h5 30) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 There is A LOT MORE snow out west on the NAM! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Well this NAM is not providing any desperately needed certainty lol. This really is going to be a nowcast event with a massive range for DC/MD going into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 20 minutes ago, bncho said: @MillvilleWx the HRRR and NAM 3k have been consistent on a McLean/Tysons/Vienna local jack. Is this due to elevation? (12” vs 5” at DCA 10:1) I actually am not sure, but can't be a bad thing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, yoda said: Oh... okay Wow, how much better can we get over 2-3 more cycles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: That's 0z lol 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 OMG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, bncho said: There is A LOT MORE snow out west on the NAM! Thats what the western suburbs need! Slp is 10-20 miles NW but the precip shield is way west and heavier because of better H5 as you showed in your pbp 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Nam is going annular 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7-9pm Jebwalk in order if the nams are right 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 In NAM We Trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Terpeast said: Thats what the western suburbs need! Slp is 10-20 miles NW but the precip shield is way west and heavier because of better H5 as you showed in your pbp We like tuck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, yoda said: We like tuck wtf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Jake Wx said: lol if this verifies DC is going to do … a tad better than 2-4” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 NAM is the most aggressive with the flip to accumulating snow. We've seen the opposite before, where the NAM tries to flip us to sleet and we all laugh, until it happens. Hopefully the NAM is getting the vertical profiles correct and we all win. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, LP08 said: 7-9pm Jebwalk in order if the nams are right I was just about to say, if this works out, a Sunday evening Jebwalk will be in order (with camera in hand)!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Nam is a smoke show, absolutely beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 The 500mb progression on the NAM is just perfect for heavy snow in this area. Wow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: 7-9pm Jebwalk in order if the nams are right Huge mashed potatoes falling from the sky, it would be a lot of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: NAM is the most aggressive with the flip to accumulating snow. We've seen the opposite before, where the NAM tries to flip us to sleet and we all laugh, until it happens. Hopefully the NAM is getting the vertical profiles correct and we all win. It was nearly the most accurate IMO with the flip over to sleet in the January storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1002mb to 977mb in 12 hrs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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