BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: I bet those get bumped by about an inch by the end of the day. That's what it was for the metro the prior map oddly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Euro and GGEM do big west jumps and get the metro areas some coastal love as gfs shits the bed. That figures. Honestly if the GFS comes back west at 18z I’d chalk it up to noise. If it suddenly becomes the least snowy model though and THEN its original idea of a beltway bomb comes to fruition, that would be hysterical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 EPS is like 100 miles west 6 5 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 love seeing most members west of the mean. edit: removed image since I was ninja’d anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Honestly if the GFS comes back west at 18z I’d chalk it up to noise. If it suddenly becomes the least snowy model though and THEN its original idea of a beltway bomb comes to fruition, that would be hysterical. To be honest it was way off with Synoptics on the January storm too. Had it cold down into Richmond and 2 big waves when others didn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, bncho said: EPS is like 100 miles west West and a slightly deeper low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 14 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Wait holy shit, the next frame is even better Im sure it’s wrong but this is what we need to get hammered. Guessing we might get a NAMming at 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I would feel pretty good if I was up around Baltimore for this one. I know you guys have been getting screwed as badly as we have out here. This is probably the one for you all. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Hard not to like what the ai, euro, and eps just did at 12z, after also seeing a nice jump from the cmc. Let’s please crush happy hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, clskinsfan said: I would feel pretty good if I was up around Baltimore for this one. I know you guys have been getting screwed as badly as we have out here. This is probably the one for you all. Couple more cycles in the improvement department and Baltimore will ring in double digits here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Atleast you have eggs in there Them damn shelves working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Eps snowfall and qpf. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Honestly if the GFS comes back west at 18z I’d chalk it up to noise. If it suddenly becomes the least snowy model though and THEN its original idea of a beltway bomb comes to fruition, that would be hysterical. All the haters killed its self confidence 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 24 minutes ago, Terpeast said: If they turn out to be correct (which is unlikely but not impossible), we could get the CCB all the way to 81 I like where our area sits, right at Bull Mountain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 CTP issued warnings and issued watches further west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, yoda said: CTP issued warnings and issued watches further west Well then ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow likely. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Sunday night and Monday. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for where the heaviest snow bands will occur. Snow totals could be higher depending on these localized bands. Snowfall at times could exceed 1 inch per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Feeling good here in Loudoun. I think I am just enough east to get some decent snow, whether its from the IVT potential or LP being closer to the coast. West of Loudoun is the question mark imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, yoda said: CTP issued warnings and issued watches further west URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... PAZ057>059-064>066-221130- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Hershey, York, Pottsville, Lancaster, Lebanon, Gettysburg, and Harrisburg 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow likely. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Sunday night and Monday. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for where the heaviest snow bands will occur. Snow totals could be higher depending on these localized bands. Snowfall at times could exceed 1 inch per hour rates. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... PAZ024-033-221130- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T0600Z-260224T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.260222T0600Z-260224T0600Z/ Cambria-Somerset- Including the cities of Somerset and Johnstown 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Cambria and Somerset Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall totals on the ridgetops will be locally higher due to the enhanced upslope snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 CTP hoisted warnings. LWX and PHI shouldn't be too far behind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Dunno if this is more from LE... but... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA... PAZ017>019-025>028-034>036-042-049>053-221130- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0005.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon- Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Sullivan-Union-Snyder- Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Including the cities of McConnellsburg, Bloomsburg, Mount Union, Danville, DuBois, Altoona, Philipsburg, Lewisburg, Berwick, Bedford, Laporte, Huntingdon, Selinsgrove, Clearfield, Sunbury, Mifflintown, State College, Shamokin, Lewistown, and Chambersburg 143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for where the heaviest snow bands will occur. Snow totals could be higher depending on these localized bands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somecallmetim Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 My parents' who are in their mid-80s live less than a mile From the coast in central CT. Heading up there first thing in the AM to "help them" and chase. An act of mercy and self interest. Bringing the DFH 120. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Think someone said NAM runs off the NMB? Here is WB 15Z SREF NMB...I was incorrect. The 15z srefs use 12z NAM initialization. However, tracking it last day or so it seems the next NAM run matches the prior NMB run. Not exactly the amounts, but the axis of its precip. Could just be a coincidence I’m not sure. We’ll see! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: CTP hoisted warnings. LWX and PHI shouldn't be too far behind. I really think they're gonna go WWA for DC and immediate burbs 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, EHoffman said: I really think they're gonna go WWA for DC and immediate burbs Given the wind and heavy wet snow risk, I would lean towards a low end warning event of 4" - 6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: I really think they're gonna go WWA for DC and immediate burbs Eh I think 3-6” gets a warning usually and 2-4״ just seems to have such a boom potential on pretty much all guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, EHoffman said: I really think they're gonna go WWA for DC and immediate burbs Usually agree, but with wind and the snow being heavy and wet... they might err on caution and go warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, weathercoins said: Eh I think 3-6” gets a warning usually and 2-4״ just seems to have such a boom potential on pretty much all guidance It strikes me as a WWA and then if we get some good CCB into the area we get bumped to a warning at some point tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Given the wind and heavy wet snow risk, I would lean towards a low end warning event of 4" - 6". That’s how I would do it. It’s not a 3” fluffy powder WWA type of event. It’s a 4”+ heavy dripping wet slush that will weigh down trees and limbs and power lines. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 154 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 DEZ002-NJZ017>019-021-220800- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/ /O.EXA.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/ Kent-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland- Including the cities of Moorestown, Glassboro, Dover, Cherry Hill, Mount Holly, Millville, and Camden 154 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 14 and 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...In Delaware, Kent County. In New Jersey, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Northwestern Burlington Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I’ll enjoy my WSW for 6-12 and 40mph gusts for now while we await more great trends this aftn, thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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