2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[Quasievil]

I have whiplash.

[baltosquid]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

You particularly were mentioning the good trends at 500 and were patient, now they’re showing up at the surface!! Nice job!!

Every dog has its day as they say! 
 

Also while the mood is relatively good, why not look over at the 15z SREF… 

Tuck city.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

You particularly were mentioning the good trends at 500 and were patient, now they’re showing up at the surface!! Nice job!!

No “nice job” for my PBP….

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Base off the 12z Euro, I could see Washington County, MD and parts of the WV panhandle get added to the watch. 

[bncho]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Every dog has its day as they say! 
 

Also while the mood is relatively good, why not look over at the 15z SREF… 

Tuck city.

Woah… look at those members right over the Delmarva 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Every dog has its day as they say! 
 

Also while the mood is relatively good, why not look over at the 15z SREF… 

Tuck city.

Still time to tuck more. Let's reel it in

[baltosquid]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Every dog has its day as they say! 
 

Also while the mood is relatively good, why not look over at the 15z SREF… 

Tuck city.

Wait holy shit, the next frame is even better

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

LOVING the IVT band over Loudoun

Pretty much all models seem to be narrowing the IVT somewhere between here and Leesburg probably will end up in Delaware 

[Terpeast]

Just now, bncho said:

Woah… look at those members right over the Delmarva 

If they turn out to be correct (which is unlikely but not impossible), we could get the CCB all the way to 81

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Wait holy shit, the next frame is even better

Oh wow  

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

No “nice job” for my PBP….

 

You’ve done an excellent job, way better than me imo.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Wait holy shit, the next frame is even better

Uhhhh…yeah gimme 

[NVAwx]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

No “nice job” for my PBP….

 

Maybe you gotta quit saying "ass hair".  Synonyms include: Whisker, close shave, by a nose, by the narrowest margin, fraction, marginally, shade, by the skin of ___ teeth, etc.  

[DDweatherman]

It’s the sref, sure. But it has been a good prediction of where the Nam/3k suite have headed the following run. 

[MN Transplant]

7 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Just got home from my daughters bball game. On the euro, how much precipitation after 4 or 5pm on sunday? Dont think we will see much stickage until then?


.

Doing some estimation, it looks like 0.5"-0.6" for a lot of us, which is a nice result and lands in the middle of the more conservative models and the NAMs.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Uhhhh…yeah gimme 

Holy moly, maybe we get smoked?!?! 

[DDweatherman]

Saw the HREF in the nyc forum, pretty good too.

[bncho]

EPS WOW

[DDweatherman]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Holy moly, maybe we get smoked?!?! 

Well, a nam’ing in at 3pm wouldn’t hurt. 

[Weather Will]

Think someone said NAM runs off the NMB? Here is WB 15Z SREF NMB...

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

EPS WOW

Pivotal needs to hurry up. I want to see where these lows go

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

lol 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

lol 

Got em right where we want em 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

lol 

 They gonna have to raise them  up  lol

[WxUSAF]

Euro and GGEM do big west jumps and get the metro areas some coastal love as gfs shits the bed. That figures.

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

lol 

I bet those get bumped by about an inch by the end of the day.

[Roger Smith]

Looks like they are using the CBL (can't bust low) model. 

[clskinsfan]

A little surprised there is no advisory of any kind out this way. Most of the models are honing in on the inverted trough smacking this area pretty good. But if that fails we will fail miserably out here again. 

[MN Transplant]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Euro and GGEM do big west jumps and get the metro areas some coastal love as gfs shits the bed. That figures.

This is such a weird model battle.  There's no doubt that the GFS "won" by catching on to the synoptics.  But it was terrible for sensible weather, first spitting out monster amounts inland and then insisting that the main part of the event was during the day on Sunday.  

[WEATHER53]

28 minutes ago, snowfan said:

So 3-12” range still.  Time to move on frin these projection back and forth examples and nowcast