2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[Ji]

Swoon

?

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Wow. What a headache for @MillvilleWx

Not so much. I am National center, so it’s only a slight headache lol 

My disco for the storm is out. Heavy Snow and Ice discussion WPC

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Jake Wx said:

Never been more grateful to have 700’ of elevation to help with accumulations 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Not so much. I am National center, so it’s only a slight headache lol 

My disco for the storm is out. Heavy Snow and Ice discussion WPC

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

You buying into the west trends? I’m sure you loved seeing the euro and then especially its EPS move pretty nicely west at 12z 

[Warm Nose]

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Not so much. I am National center, so it’s only a slight headache lol 

My disco for the storm is out. Heavy Snow and Ice discussion WPC

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

.

Oh hell yeah...

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

?

what does this mean

[Warm Nose]

Just now, bncho said:

what does this mean

The unreleased version of the Euro shows the storm more NW than the current ops model.

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

what does this mean

More snow

[dailylurker]

Gfs bad?

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

[mappy]

Just now, dailylurker said:

Gfs bad?

About the same qpf wise compared to 12z. Taking climo and temps into account for snow totals 

[SnowenOutThere]

Wow did no one post the gfs 

[arlwx12]

LWX's latest guess for DCA is 2.5.

Why?

I think it's the temperatures. Latest estimates are 35 at 6 pm, 33 at 9 pm, 32 finally at midnight.

Mixed with rain throughout the night, so snow depth may be lower.

Of course, things COULD change.

 

[Ji]

Dt is on a rampage

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wow did no one post the gfs 

We kinda got bncho’d a bit, so we all assume it’s not far off 12z 

[Jake Wx]

Just now, arlwx12 said:

LWX's latest guess for DCA is 2.5.

Why?

I think it's the temperatures. Latest estimates are 35 at 6 pm, 33 at 9 pm, 32 finally at midnight.

Mixed with rain throughout the night, so snow depth may be lower.

Of course, things COULD change.

 

18z hrrr at 8pm

[AmericanWxFreak]

.

[Ji]

About the same qpf wise compared to 12z. Taking climo and temps into account for snow totals 

I’ve lost 22 since Wednesday 12z

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Ji said:

Dt is on a rampage

I wouldn’t love anything more than for that man to be banished to a remote island, just an asshole through and through. 
 

we know he loves model hugging, and sure he can make good points, but I read his blog from last night…led with emotion more than logic on the why for shifts. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, AmericanWxFreak said:

.

Slightly improved. 

[mappy]

[AmericanWxFreak]

21z RAP


.

[Jake Wx]

Latest RAP, kuchera is jucied 

[mitchnick]

Rap....Now we're talking. Finally one of the models gets a 1'+ out this way.

[Wetbulbs88]

GFS seemed like a step back. We’d really rely on the IVT. 
 

hopefully the other more western depictions of the field work out. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Jake Wx said:

Latest RAP, kuchera is jucied 

lol that’s wild, I have no idea what to forecast for dc. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Never been more grateful to have 700’ of elevation to help with accumulations 

At least you can actually USE your elevation now unlike the last 5-6 years!

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright so someone give their best guess for Baltimore. Legit don't know what to think of this anymore, lol

I’ve been solid on 2-6” for MBY so far. Think I’ve seen enough to bump that to 3-7” but I’m still cautious for us. But I feel good about the floor. Seems most bust potential on the high end?

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

DC metro might get Raleigh’d a bit here

Someone probably will get screwed. DCA is always the best odds.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

GFS seemed like a step back. We’d really rely on the IVT. 
 

hopefully the other more western depictions of the field work out. 

It wasn’t