2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, bncho said:

YO THAT ALBERTA VORT IS PHASING I THINK

Bring us home bncho!

[87storms]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

H5 is souther, and wester, and amper on the Nam so far lol

Following the boundary?  Wouldn't be the first time that's happened with mild weather leading in.  Kinda makes more sense than a further east solution.

[Eskimo Joe]

Based off the 18z suites thus far, mostly short term guidance, the changeover window for many is 15z in the far western suburbs to 19z for the I-95 corridor. Will be very interesting to see how this plays out tomorrow from a nowcasting standpoint.

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

well, i'm VERY glad i live where i live. just far east enough to get into the CCB, plus 400' elevation

Yes, this is one of those times, at least during the day and early evening tomorrow. When those of us who live on the "hills" just above the fall line at 300ft or above can do slightly better than those nearby at lower elevation. You will probably beat me with your extra 100 feet lol. The march 2013 fail storm was like this.

[samdman95]

Parents driving from Wilmington Amtrak to Easton on the Eastern Shore tomorrow afternoon. What time do we think it will be a safe drive until?


.

[Cobalt]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

That's 0z lol

[Amped]

Nam is still playing catchup with the amplitude of the western ridge.

[LP08]

3k is a beat down again

[yoda]

Oh... okay (18z NAM h5 30)

 

[bncho]

There is A LOT MORE snow out west on the NAM!

[weathercoins]

Well this NAM is not providing any desperately needed certainty lol.  This really is going to be a nowcast event with a massive range for DC/MD going into it   

[MillvilleWx]

20 minutes ago, bncho said:

@MillvilleWx the HRRR and NAM 3k have been consistent on a McLean/Tysons/Vienna local jack. Is this due to elevation? (12” vs 5” at DCA 10:1)

I actually am not sure, but can't be a bad thing!

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, yoda said:

Oh... okay

 

Wow, how much better can we get over 2-3 more cycles?

[Jake Wx]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

That's 0z lol

[bncho]

OMG

[Terpeast]

Just now, bncho said:

There is A LOT MORE snow out west on the NAM!

Thats what the western suburbs need! Slp is 10-20 miles NW but the precip shield is way west and heavier because of better H5 as you showed in your pbp

[TSSN+]

Nam is going annular 

[LP08]

7-9pm Jebwalk in order if the nams are right

[LeesburgWx]

In NAM We Trust

[Jake Wx]

[yoda]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Thats what the western suburbs need! Slp is 10-20 miles NW but the precip shield is way west and heavier because of better H5 as you showed in your pbp

We like tuck

 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, yoda said:

We like tuck

 

wtf!

[weathercoins]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

lol if this verifies DC is going to do … a tad better than 2-4” 

[Eskimo Joe]

NAM is the most aggressive with the flip to accumulating snow. We've seen the opposite before, where the NAM tries to flip us to sleet and we all laugh, until it happens. Hopefully the NAM is getting the vertical profiles correct and we all win.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

7-9pm Jebwalk in order if the nams are right

I was just about to say, if this works out, a Sunday evening Jebwalk will be in order (with camera in hand)!!

[TSSN+]

Nam is a smoke show, absolutely beautiful 

[Eskimo Joe]

The 500mb progression on the NAM is just perfect for heavy snow in this area. Wow.

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

7-9pm Jebwalk in order if the nams are right

Huge mashed potatoes falling from the sky, it would be a lot of fun.

[Snowman.]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

NAM is the most aggressive with the flip to accumulating snow. We've seen the opposite before, where the NAM tries to flip us to sleet and we all laugh, until it happens. Hopefully the NAM is getting the vertical profiles correct and we all win.

It was nearly the most accurate IMO with the flip over to sleet in the January storm. 

[Amped]

1002mb to 977mb in 12 hrs