2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

I bet those get bumped by about an inch by the end of the day.

That's what it was for the metro the prior map oddly. 

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro and GGEM do big west jumps and get the metro areas some coastal love as gfs shits the bed. That figures.

Honestly if the GFS comes back west at 18z I’d chalk it up to noise. If it suddenly becomes the least snowy model though and THEN its original idea of a beltway bomb comes to fruition, that would be hysterical.

[bncho]

EPS is like 100 miles west

[baltosquid]

love seeing most members west of the mean.

edit: removed image since I was ninja’d anyway

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Honestly if the GFS comes back west at 18z I’d chalk it up to noise. If it suddenly becomes the least snowy model though and THEN its original idea of a beltway bomb comes to fruition, that would be hysterical.

To be honest it was way off with Synoptics on the January storm too. Had it cold down into Richmond and 2 big waves when others didn’t. 

[RickinBaltimore]

Just now, bncho said:

EPS is like 100 miles west

West and a slightly deeper low

[osfan24]

14 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Wait holy shit, the next frame is even better

Im sure it’s wrong but this is what we need to get hammered. Guessing we might get a NAMming at 18z.

[clskinsfan]

I would feel pretty good if I was up around Baltimore for this one. I know you guys have been getting screwed as badly as we have out here. This is probably the one for you all. 

[DDweatherman]

Hard not to like what the ai, euro, and eps just did at 12z, after also seeing a nice jump from the cmc. Let’s please crush happy hour

[DDweatherman]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

I would feel pretty good if I was up around Baltimore for this one. I know you guys have been getting screwed as badly as we have out here. This is probably the one for you all. 

Couple more cycles in the improvement department and Baltimore will ring in double digits here.

[Solution Man]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Atleast you have eggs in there

Them damn shelves working 

[mitchnick]

Eps snowfall and qpf.

[LordBaltimore]

11 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Honestly if the GFS comes back west at 18z I’d chalk it up to noise. If it suddenly becomes the least snowy model though and THEN its original idea of a beltway bomb comes to fruition, that would be hysterical.

All the haters killed its self confidence

[Solution Man]

24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If they turn out to be correct (which is unlikely but not impossible), we could get the CCB all the way to 81

I like where our area sits, right at Bull Mountain 

[yoda]

CTP issued warnings and issued watches further west 

[TSSN+]

Just now, yoda said:

CTP issued warnings and issued watches further west 

Well then

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow likely. Total snow accumulations between 6 and
  12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Sunday
  night and Monday.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may
  down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel
  could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for where the heaviest
  snow bands will occur. Snow totals could be higher depending on
  these localized bands. Snowfall at times could exceed 1 inch per
  hour rates.

[LeesburgWx]

Feeling good here in Loudoun. I think I am just enough east to get some decent snow, whether its from the IVT potential or LP being closer to the coast. West of Loudoun is the question mark imo.

[yoda]

Just now, yoda said:

CTP issued warnings and issued watches further west 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...

PAZ057>059-064>066-221130-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Hershey, York, Pottsville, Lancaster,
Lebanon, Gettysburg, and Harrisburg
143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow likely. Total snow accumulations between 6 and
  12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph Sunday
  night and Monday.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may
  down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel
  could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for where the heaviest
  snow bands will occur. Snow totals could be higher depending on
  these localized bands. Snowfall at times could exceed 1 inch per
  hour rates.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...

PAZ024-033-221130-
/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T0600Z-260224T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0002.260222T0600Z-260224T0600Z/
Cambria-Somerset-
Including the cities of Somerset and Johnstown
143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and
  10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Cambria and Somerset Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may
  down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Travel
  could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall totals on the ridgetops will be
  locally higher due to the enhanced upslope snow.

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

CTP hoisted warnings. LWX and PHI shouldn't be too far behind.

[yoda]

Dunno if this is more from LE... but...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM TO BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...

PAZ017>019-025>028-034>036-042-049>053-221130-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0005.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Sullivan-Union-Snyder-
Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Including the cities of McConnellsburg, Bloomsburg, Mount Union,
Danville, DuBois, Altoona, Philipsburg, Lewisburg, Berwick,
Bedford, Laporte, Huntingdon, Selinsgrove, Clearfield, Sunbury,
Mifflintown, State College, Shamokin, Lewistown, and Chambersburg
143 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
  8 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for where the heaviest
  snow bands will occur. Snow totals could be higher depending on
  these localized bands.

[somecallmetim]

My parents' who are in their mid-80s live less than a mile From the coast in central CT. Heading up there first thing in the AM to "help them" and chase. An act of mercy and self interest. Bringing the DFH 120.

[Heisy]

Think someone said NAM runs off the NMB? Here is WB 15Z SREF NMB...

I was incorrect. The 15z srefs use 12z NAM initialization. However, tracking it last day or so it seems the next NAM run matches the prior NMB run. Not exactly the amounts, but the axis of its precip. Could just be a coincidence I’m not sure. We’ll see!

[EHoffman]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

CTP hoisted warnings. LWX and PHI shouldn't be too far behind.

I really think they're gonna go WWA for DC and immediate burbs

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, EHoffman said:

I really think they're gonna go WWA for DC and immediate burbs

Given the wind and heavy wet snow risk, I would lean towards a low end warning event of 4" - 6".

[weathercoins]

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

I really think they're gonna go WWA for DC and immediate burbs

Eh I think 3-6” gets a warning usually and 2-4״ just seems to have such a boom potential on pretty much all guidance 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

I really think they're gonna go WWA for DC and immediate burbs

Usually agree, but with wind and the snow being heavy and wet... they might err on caution and go warning

[EHoffman]

Just now, weathercoins said:

Eh I think 3-6” gets a warning usually and 2-4״ just seems to have such a boom potential on pretty much all guidance 

It strikes me as a WWA and then if we get some good CCB into the area we get bumped to a warning at some point tomorrow.  

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Given the wind and heavy wet snow risk, I would lean towards a low end warning event of 4" - 6".

That’s how I would do it. It’s not a 3” fluffy powder WWA type of event. It’s a 4”+ heavy dripping wet slush that will weigh down trees and limbs and power lines. 

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
154 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

DEZ002-NJZ017>019-021-220800-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.W.0002.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/
/O.EXA.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.260222T1500Z-260223T2300Z/
Kent-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-
Including the cities of Moorestown, Glassboro, Dover, Cherry
Hill, Mount Holly, Millville, and Camden
154 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  between 14 and 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...In Delaware, Kent County. In New Jersey, Camden,
  Cumberland, Gloucester, and Northwestern Burlington Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

[DDweatherman]

I’ll enjoy my WSW for 6-12 and 40mph gusts for now while we await more great trends this aftn, thanks