February 22-23 Storm Thread/OBS

[Heisy]

Never easy. I can’t believe we’re going into 12z on Friday with this much disagreement.

[Duca892]

EURO holds firm with the IVT instead. I mean we are inside of 70hrs and there is this much disagreement between 2 main models lmfao.

positive is that I don’t believe a single model is a total whiff. Think at least every model shows 1+ inches 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Wow on the euro. Hold its ground. Less than an inch most of South Jersey where the GFS has 3 feet in spots. 

The pros say go with the Euro. I say go with the least snowiest model. I think we all.know inside how this will play out, let's not kid ourselves. Its been fun tho.

[Birds~69]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wow on the euro. Hold its ground. Less than an inch most of South Jersey where the GFS has 3 feet in spots. 

The pros say go with the Euro. I say go with the least snowiest model. I think we all.know inside how this will play out, let's not kid ourselves. Its been fun tho.

I don't see the fun in getting screwed. It's like the Birds being up 34-7 at halftime and losing in the final minute. Uhghh...

[coastal front]

What’s a 30” difference between fiends? Kidding aside mostly every model has slowly trended towards a snowier outcome through 6z besides the euro. Let’s remember how far out to sea it was at this point yesterday. 

[Heisy]

Wow on the euro. Hold its ground. Less than an inch most of South Jersey where the GFS has 3 feet in spots. 
The pros say go with the Euro. I say go with the least snowiest model. I think we all.know inside how this will play out, let's not kid ourselves. Its been fun tho.

Euro Ai and icon are good middle ground models. Makes sense to me.

Correct me if I’m wrong, the nc storm, under 3 days didn’t the gfs/nam combo beat the euro for snow down there?

[Duca892]

DT now acknowledging he has to change up his forecast just outside of the EURO now.

[coastal front]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Euro Ai and icon are good middle ground models. Makes sense to me.

Correct me if I’m wrong, the nc storm, under 3 days didn’t the gfs/nam combo beat the euro for snow down there?

Yea I do recall hearing the same thing during that storm. Even the it over performed most modeling 

[Blue Dream]

So I’m getting 30” or 2”. Got it 

[coastal front]

AIFS ensembles showing close to 10” on the coast. Euro ensembles look like a tick west. Good signs for the bigger outcomes we all hope to see

[penndotguy]

Looks like if we average out guidance looking at it so far today  it snows our entire sub forum, would be an insane gradient few inches out here in Berks to a MECS along coastal areas. 

[Heisy]

Weenie post warning

9z srefs just beefed tf up.

[coastal front]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Weenie post warning

9z srefs just beefed tf up.

The first piece of guidance to support a gfs like solution. We might have a nam bomb coming in a few hours 

[The Iceman]

38 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Euro Ai and icon are good middle ground models. Makes sense to me.

Correct me if I’m wrong, the nc storm, under 3 days didn’t the gfs/nam combo beat the euro for snow down there?

Yes it did. We kept holding out hope because of the fucking euro and euro ai on that storm were teases until like 36 hours out.

[Voyager]

30 minutes ago, Blue Dream said:

So I’m getting 30” or 2”. Got it 

Maybe you'll get 32"... 

[wkd]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Weenie post warning

9z srefs just beefed tf up.

What are those two sref models

[ChescoWx]

11 hours ago, Duca892 said:

I would just throughly enjoy one last 2-4in snowfall here in Whitehall to put us at or above an average winter. Would be memorable 

Some spots like here in EN are already over a full season average winter at 37.4"

[Heisy]

What are those two sref models

They’re not even worth discussing. However, the fact that one NBM member is a huge hit gives me a clue we MIGHT see the 12z Nam go crazy

[Heisy]

Yes it did. We kept holding out hope because of the fucking euro and euro ai on that storm were teases until like 36 hours out.

You live down there? I remember tracking from afar and just seeing the euro cave to them close in, but I couldn’t confirm that

[The Iceman]

 

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

You live down there? I remember tracking from afar and just seeing the euro cave to them close in, but I couldn’t confirm that

Parents and grandparents do and they’re always asking me what the weather is going to do so I follow there just as close as here lol

[Duca892]

NAM rolls at 8am? 

[wkd]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

They’re not even worth discussing. However, the fact that one NBM member is a huge hit gives me a clue we MIGHT see the 12z Nam go crazy

I thought at first you had double posted the same map, but on much closer inspection I saw one was SREF(nmb c00) and the other SREF (arw c00).  I was just wondering what the difference was.

[BBasile]

Hopefully we get something.  This rain has decimated the snow cover.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

Met in a different sub states 0z and 6z suites were actually steps back from 18z yesterday 

[Duca892]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Met in a different sub actually states 0z and 6z suites were actually steps back from 18z yesterday 

......then what is literally everyone else missing lmfao 

[MJO812]

Check the 6z ukie. Its further west and rains lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Check the 6z ukie. Its further west and rains lol

In fairness almost all guidance has rain for the area thru 7-9PM sunday with temps crashing after that. Question remains how much precip is left after that time.

[Duca892]

I don't understand model lines lol. I was always under the impression the 540 line is your freezing line. Is that just completely inaccurate? lol 

[The Iceman]

1 minute ago, Duca892 said:

I don't understand model lines lol. I was always under the impression the 540 line is your freezing line. Is that just completely inaccurate? lol 

short answer: There are many layers to the atmosphere than just the 540 thickness. You want the 2M temp maps which shows the actual surface freezing line. That still won't be the answer here because dynamics will mean it can snow above 32 but the 2M temp maps are a more accurate representation of the surface conditions than the 540 thickness.

[The Iceman]

41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Met in a different sub states 0z and 6z suites were actually steps back from 18z yesterday 

You mind quoting it? I can't find that post.