Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m not quite as excited as some other folks here - baby steps at h5 only going so far. Think most of this is the IVT (which I do think has a shot).

I’m mainly just looking at h5 and the tilt at h57, a bit more south at the base and a cleaner interaction of the energy. That and the sfc low is absolutely further west which at the very least influences the IVT a good bit. 

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

The surface is also torched for most of the precip 

34/34 at 00z Monday with snow falling.  It would accumulate, but...

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Sooooo-what happened?

12z Euro is incrementally better upstairs, but the surface is just torched. 

[Snowman.]

That IVT band is serious.. for whoever gets under it 

[rjvanals]

The run is fine but we have a torched surface and are on the western edge of the IVT. Super high bust potential 

[Jake Wx]

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

THE KING HAS FALLEN

Just a recommendation: best to wait until event is over before declaring a model has fallen

[WxUSAF]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

34/34 at 00z Monday with snow falling.  It would accumulate, but...

Jan 2011 storm had that pounding ULL snow after dark with similar surface temps. Think it was like 7-8:1 ratios?

[GreyHat]

I would honestly like to say thank you all for over the years for providing an education to myself. Whether it's winter or severe weather during the other seasons. 

Again thank you all.

[SnowGolfBro]

Euro won’t correct all the way in one run. Let’s see if we can get a trend started at HH!

[Eskimo Joe]

Razor close for so many on the 12z Euro. We're talking a difference of two degrees either way means huge boom or bust potential. Smart money is to bank on things being warmer than forecast at the surface. 9/10 times, if we're relying on precipitation rates to dynamically cool the atmosphere we're going to lose.

[bncho]

Do your own ratios...

[mitchnick]

Essentially over west of Bay

[yoda]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Jan 2011 storm had that pounding ULL snow after dark with similar surface temps. Think it was like 7-8:1 ratios?

I mentioned the march storm we had in the past earlier.  

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, bncho said:

Do your own ratios...

I’m accept. Even at 7-8:1

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Jan 2011 storm had that pounding ULL snow after dark with similar surface temps. Think it was like 7-8:1 ratios?

Yes. Jan 26, 2011 was the best example of how we "win" with a marginal airmass. A rapidly strengthening storm that flips to frozen precip as nightfall occurs. Of course, that storm was at the end of January with a lower sun angle and occurred during a more climo favored time of the year.

[bncho]

[rjvanals]

Just now, yoda said:

I mentioned the march storm we had in the past earlier.  

The St Patrick's day storm? 

[WxUSAF]

I think something like 2-6” is a reasonable call for the metro area right now. More for the beaches. Potentially a screw zone somewhere in between?

[Winter Wizard]

That IVT has a January 2011 or February 2014 flavor. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Do your own ratios...

3-5 imby, 4-6 DC north

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

I would honestly like to say thank you all for over the years for providing an education to myself. Whether it's winter or severe weather during the other seasons. 

Again thank you all.

And we’re so glad that after years of lurking you made an account in December 

[Pityflakes]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Essentially over west of Bay

Wow so essentially a hold ( at the surface at least).  Don't envy NWS.  Looking forward to CWG's 2-12" first call.  Got to stick w/ the King though for now I think. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Terpeast said:

3-5 imby, 4-6 DC north

I'm gonna guess we aren't gonna know exactly where that IVT is gonna setup until what...gametime? Lol

[mitchnick]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

I think something like 2-6” is a reasonable call for the metro area right now. More for the beaches. Potentially a screw zone somewhere in between?

Euro screws the beaches until NJ

[MN Transplant]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Jan 2011 storm had that pounding ULL snow after dark with similar surface temps. Think it was like 7-8:1 ratios?

I had 4"+ of snow from both March 2013 storms and neither dropped below 33 degrees.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Euro screws the beaches until NJ

Yeah but it’s still improved over 0z. Other guidance is all very good for the beaches.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

I had 4"+ of snow from both March 2013 storms and neither dropped below 33 degrees.

We don’t speak of March 2013 in Maryland 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

I had 4"+ of snow from both March 2013 storms and neither dropped below 33 degrees.

That storm gives me PTSD. 

[WxMan1]

Yeah, it's all about the backside cold conveyor belt (CBB) and deepening Trowal zone, and for us near/within the beltways, I think we're gonna want much of that action after 22Z. Rain or just white rain before that. 

Interesting, I keep seeing IVT tossed around (integrated water vapor transport). Usually a term used with ARs (Atmospheric Rivers), but we certainly to see these plumes here in the East. Analogous to a PW axis, theta -e axis, TROWAL, -- merely another tool to show that there's good moisture pooling/isentropic ascent upstairs. 

Our snow here in the cities will be completely tied to that CCB/Trowal/IVT or backside deformation axis. Any QPF before that is dead to me, but perhaps not to folks well N and W of the fall line.

Setting my bar here in central AA pretty low for now, 2-4" with the wrap around and heavier rates.