DDweatherman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m not quite as excited as some other folks here - baby steps at h5 only going so far. Think most of this is the IVT (which I do think has a shot). I’m mainly just looking at h5 and the tilt at h57, a bit more south at the base and a cleaner interaction of the energy. That and the sfc low is absolutely further west which at the very least influences the IVT a good bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, rjvanals said: The surface is also torched for most of the precip 34/34 at 00z Monday with snow falling. It would accumulate, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: Sooooo-what happened? 12z Euro is incrementally better upstairs, but the surface is just torched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago That IVT band is serious.. for whoever gets under it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The run is fine but we have a torched surface and are on the western edge of the IVT. Super high bust potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, Jake Wx said: THE KING HAS FALLEN Just a recommendation: best to wait until event is over before declaring a model has fallen 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, MN Transplant said: 34/34 at 00z Monday with snow falling. It would accumulate, but... Jan 2011 storm had that pounding ULL snow after dark with similar surface temps. Think it was like 7-8:1 ratios? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I would honestly like to say thank you all for over the years for providing an education to myself. Whether it's winter or severe weather during the other seasons. Again thank you all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Euro won’t correct all the way in one run. Let’s see if we can get a trend started at HH! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Razor close for so many on the 12z Euro. We're talking a difference of two degrees either way means huge boom or bust potential. Smart money is to bank on things being warmer than forecast at the surface. 9/10 times, if we're relying on precipitation rates to dynamically cool the atmosphere we're going to lose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Do your own ratios... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Essentially over west of Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, WxUSAF said: Jan 2011 storm had that pounding ULL snow after dark with similar surface temps. Think it was like 7-8:1 ratios? I mentioned the march storm we had in the past earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, bncho said: Do your own ratios... I’m accept. Even at 7-8:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Jan 2011 storm had that pounding ULL snow after dark with similar surface temps. Think it was like 7-8:1 ratios? Yes. Jan 26, 2011 was the best example of how we "win" with a marginal airmass. A rapidly strengthening storm that flips to frozen precip as nightfall occurs. Of course, that storm was at the end of January with a lower sun angle and occurred during a more climo favored time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, yoda said: I mentioned the march storm we had in the past earlier. The St Patrick's day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I think something like 2-6” is a reasonable call for the metro area right now. More for the beaches. Potentially a screw zone somewhere in between? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago That IVT has a January 2011 or February 2014 flavor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, bncho said: Do your own ratios... 3-5 imby, 4-6 DC north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, GreyHat said: I would honestly like to say thank you all for over the years for providing an education to myself. Whether it's winter or severe weather during the other seasons. Again thank you all. And we’re so glad that after years of lurking you made an account in December 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, mitchnick said: Essentially over west of Bay Wow so essentially a hold ( at the surface at least). Don't envy NWS. Looking forward to CWG's 2-12" first call. Got to stick w/ the King though for now I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Terpeast said: 3-5 imby, 4-6 DC north I'm gonna guess we aren't gonna know exactly where that IVT is gonna setup until what...gametime? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, WxUSAF said: I think something like 2-6” is a reasonable call for the metro area right now. More for the beaches. Potentially a screw zone somewhere in between? Euro screws the beaches until NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Jan 2011 storm had that pounding ULL snow after dark with similar surface temps. Think it was like 7-8:1 ratios? I had 4"+ of snow from both March 2013 storms and neither dropped below 33 degrees. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, mitchnick said: Euro screws the beaches until NJ Yeah but it’s still improved over 0z. Other guidance is all very good for the beaches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, MN Transplant said: I had 4"+ of snow from both March 2013 storms and neither dropped below 33 degrees. We don’t speak of March 2013 in Maryland 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: I had 4"+ of snow from both March 2013 storms and neither dropped below 33 degrees. That storm gives me PTSD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Yeah, it's all about the backside cold conveyor belt (CBB) and deepening Trowal zone, and for us near/within the beltways, I think we're gonna want much of that action after 22Z. Rain or just white rain before that. Interesting, I keep seeing IVT tossed around (integrated water vapor transport). Usually a term used with ARs (Atmospheric Rivers), but we certainly to see these plumes here in the East. Analogous to a PW axis, theta -e axis, TROWAL, -- merely another tool to show that there's good moisture pooling/isentropic ascent upstairs. Our snow here in the cities will be completely tied to that CCB/Trowal/IVT or backside deformation axis. Any QPF before that is dead to me, but perhaps not to folks well N and W of the fall line. Setting my bar here in central AA pretty low for now, 2-4" with the wrap around and heavier rates. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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