Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[stormy]

14 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Unless there are massive shifts at this point, I think we’re at the point where we have to give the GFS its flowers for this one. 
 

Even if the ground truth ends up not being impressive for some or all of us, it’s clear the GFS had the right synoptic idea for this storm waaaaaaaay ahead of other models - and it’s also been super consistent. As much as we shit on it, this is a reminder that it’s a global weather model that should be paid attention to.

IMO you're on the right track.  The final solution of course will be very interesting but you make some undeniable observations that will be true unless there is a total collapse of the threat.

[IUsedToHateCold]

It's a big day. Euro/CMC/Icon and friends all need to join the GFS party. Sending my energy to the Canadian Shortwave Obedience Program. Shipshape guys. 

Now let's focus and get this done. 

[GreyHat]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

He’s been going around leaving X reactions. So dumb. 

Better than posting. Wouldn't you agree? 

[MickeyTim6533]

1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

It's a big day. Euro/CMC/Icon and friends all need to join the GFS party. Sending my energy to the Canadian Shortwave Obedience Program. Shipshape guys. 

Now let's focus and get this done. 

The canadians could use some support after the gold medal game loss yesterday. lol

[Weather Will]

Within 48 hours, can we take banter to banter?  Thanks!!!!

[Interstate]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

He’s been going around leaving X reactions. So dumb. 

I found his updated NWS forecast

 

[WxUSAF]

GFS was on an island and now it’s not alone but it got joined by the NAM and srefs 

[LordBaltimore]

29 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Unless there are massive shifts at this point, I think we’re at the point where we have to give the GFS its flowers for this one. 
 

Even if the ground truth ends up not being impressive for some or all of us, it’s clear the GFS had the right synoptic idea for this storm waaaaaaaay ahead of other models - and it’s also been super consistent. As much as we shit on it, this is a reminder that it’s a global weather model that should be paid attention to.

People have this idea I think that the quality of models is more different than they really are. Like I remember someone saying yesterday that the GFS takes multiple cycles to flush out bad initialization data. That's literally how every single modern weather model works. It's called 4dvar. It's something that would impact the Euro too

[weathercoins]

Even if a low end warning level event verifies we will be talking about this one for a long time.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm sure it's been mentioned but the 6z Euro is really warm. I was thinking models would start gravitating over to the GFS yesterday, when it was consistent and increasing every run, and other models were starting to trend. That was like 6 runs in a row with a near blizzard! We just don't do big snows without an optimal setup these days. These frontal boundary stationary fronts, with us being on the warm side, always go this way. 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm sure it's been mentioned but the 6z Euro is really warm. I was thinking models would start gravitating over to the GFS yesterday, when it was consistent and increasing every run, and other models were starting to trend. That was like 6 runs in a row with a near blizzard! We just don't do big snows without an optimal setup these days. These frontal boundary stationary fronts, with us being on the warm side, always go this way. 

Probably time to start looking at cams for thermals now though

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Better than posting. Wouldn't you agree? 

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Looking at the SREFs, NAM, RGEM, ICON....those are all pretty significant run to run jumps with the coastal in the direction we want.  Normally by this point in our fails we are already trending very much the opposite....

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Probably time to start looking at cams for thermals now though

Even at 60hrs, I'll take the Euro over the NAM. 

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

Yea. I don’t why people need to be negative. If they don’t think it is not going to happen then why be here. Just to say you were right? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Why?

It's a much better model. NAM might be worse than the GFS. 

[Rhino16]

Even a 2-3” deal would be the best snowfall of the year in my yard. Interested to see the thermal situation over the next few runs. It’s been suspiciously close to 33°.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's a much better model. NAM might be worse than the GFS. 

No I mean the thermals part. It was correct about the warm nose on Jan 25

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Even at 60hrs, I'll take the Euro over the NAM. 

The Euro could show 2” qpf with a temp of 27 and you’ll say snow will be tough to accumulate because Myrtle Beach water temp is 61

[Terpeast]

Just now, stormtracker said:

The Euro could show 2” qpf with a temp of 27 and you’ll say snow will be tough to accumulate because Myrtle Beach water temp is 61

Haha, that’s how he rolls! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

No I mean the thermals part. 

Let's see. These types of situations might go with the models that are a few degrees warmer. I'm not just saying that - many storms hold the warm air when they are riding a frontal boundary like this, especially around DC. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

The Euro could show 2” qpf with a temp of 27 and you’ll say snow will be tough to accumulate because Myrtle Beach water temp is 61

I would be pretty excited if the Euro showed that

[IUsedToHateCold]

5 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yea. I don’t why people need to be negative. If they don’t think it is not going to happen then why be here. Just to say you were right? 

Upvote 1000 times please. There are plenty of better things to do than piss in other people's cheerios because your yard lost 10 inches of digital snow. Nobody wants to read it and nobody cares. 

I've been on this forum and previously Eastern for almost 20 years and my post count is less than 1000. I've posted more in recent years, but I do believe many people should post less. 

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Upvote 1000 times please. There are plenty of better things to do than piss in other people's cheerios because your yard lost 10 inches of digital snow. Nobody wants to read it and nobody cares. 

I've been on this forum and previously Eastern for almost 20 years and my post count is less than 1000. I've posted more in recent years, but I do believe many people should post less. 

Oh

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Even at 60hrs, I'll take the Euro over the NAM. 

You're up late isn't it past your bedtime?

[T. August]

I feel like before every storm people forget that even in the middle of the day, snow can accumulate at 33/34. 

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, GreyHat said:

Oh I guess I'm a terrible poster.

Appreciate your honesty.

[GreyHat]

9 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yea. I don’t why people need to be negative. If they don’t think it is not going to happen then why be here. Just to say you were right? 

I guess reality is hard for you. 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, GreyHat said:

Oh

Give me one good thing you have brought to the forum... other than the increased whining... have you bought any good analysis?

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, GreyHat said:

I guess reality is hard for you. 

I stuck up for you getting a hard time from people a few weeks ago, but this morning you’re bringing the heat upon yourself…