Nomz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 minutes ago, Ji said: So euro was extremely disappointing I also lost 18 inches from 12z on the GFS should I never log back on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Not really. It has been consistently a fail for us. And it makes sense at the upper levels. For a model with an over amplified bias it’s been a huge letdown 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zwyts Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1) Knickerbocker 2) 2/23/26 3) 1899 4) PD1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 The GFS is now in NAM at 84 hr territory 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, rjvanals said: The GFS is now in NAM at 84 hr territory Stay in the Richmond, VA “anals” please 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, DDweatherman said: Stay in the Richmond, VA “anals” please He is soooo annoying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zwyts Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 6 minutes ago, rjvanals said: The GFS is now in NAM at 84 hr territory GFS is so bad with this kind of setup. The model isn't designed for East coast snowstorms and unfortunately it sucks at them. I'm sure it may be superior in a bunch of areas. Not this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 12z Euro ensembles are a bit east but most give us some snow but no real high end potential 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zwyts Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I think the jack might be a bit further west at elevation. Thurmont maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 9 minutes ago, balltermen said: I think the jack might be a bit further west at elevation. Thurmont maybe Nothing says the Jack will be west at all. Bermuda will be the jack soon. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I could have cashed out at folks jackpot 8 pages back and went to sleep…but I had to keep playing and order bnachos…I swear this hobby is just like the casino 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Almost time for our 6z NAMing/GFSing*summoning the snow gods* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 6z NAM looks much better than 0z More phasing of the ns vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terrapinwx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Stalls too far south to get a GFS result, but gets solid coastal action into the cities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 NAM looking like a middle of the road outcome between the gfs and euro (coastal wise) at first glance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Nam at range precip field quite a bit wester on this run. Looks like it’s in GFS camp…gives Norfolk 30 inches lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 WB 6Z 12K NAM and not done on the shore. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 NWS snippet A high energy but low predictability pattern looms for the back half of the weekend. The pattern is forecast to be very amplified, but in flux as a deep upper-level low digs out of the Gulf of Alaska inducing a downstream ridge-building event over the western U.S. This pattern amplification in the vicinity of western North America comes with low predictability due to data sparse regions over the North Pacific. Meanwhile, a pair of downstream upper lows interact/merge over Maritime Canada, with inherent low predictability with two cutoff lows interacting. If the upstream ridge-building event takes place a bit further west near 120 W longitude on Saturday, downstream trough amplification would be favorable for phasing over the mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys Saturday night. A subsequent low track hugging the coast would become more likely in this scenario, aided by downstream blocking and a potential source of cold air given the upper lows over Maritime Canada and surface high pressure attempting to ridge into northern New England. There is also an appearance of an inverted trough signature in a subset of model guidance over the last couple cycles, given interaction between a more amplified northern stream wave and a bit more distant offshore southern stream low. This could factor into precipitation amounts and placement. After reviewing the 00z model guidance suite, some subtle consistency has been noted although subtle uncertainty remains. Most of the models has a low tracking up from GA/AL toward the NC coast and off the Delmarva coast during the late Saturday night into late Sunday timeframe. The question remains in the proximity toward the coast along with cold air availability, and the overall scope of the precip shield pending the placement/intensity of the system. 25 to 50 miles could make a huge difference between seeing little to no wintry precip or impactful precip, especially for those east of the mountains where the confidence remains low due to thermal issues especially below elevations of 1500 feet. The 00z GFS/GEFS solutions have come down a tad, but still produce measurements on the order of 10+" of snow over a large chunk of the area. Meanwhile, the 12z EPS ensembles came up some, but at much more conservative levels which align with deterministic runs of the NAM, RDPS, GDPS, GEM, CMC, EURO/EURO AIFS, and UKMET. The latest NBM also came up a bit and aligns with the majority compared to the GFS/GEFS outliers, especially along and east of I-95. With that said, the 6/12z model suites should put the remaining puzzle pieces together as we will sit 60 hours from the event. Three scenarios remain: 1) The phase of all of these upper level features occurs too late, with low development offshore and too far southeast. 2) Similar to scenario 1, but an inverted trough on the back side of the low brings snow to eastern portions of the region. 3) Low develops closer to shore and strengthens along Delmarva Peninsula, resulting in the most snow for our areas. We still remain in the "wait and see" period with this storm, so just take precautions now, should the worst case scenario play out. Having a preparedness kit stocked up is never a bad idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 WB 6Z ICON also ticked west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 There are quite a few NAM like solutions in the GEFS members . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just reviewed the overnight runs, looks like mostly a hold, or at least similar to 12z yesterday. 18z was the high bar. Hoping to see more of a consensus today... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 WB 6Z GFS is running. Looks about the same through HR 33. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS is running. Looks about the same through HR 33. Remarkably consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 HR 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 HR 51, 54 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Looks maybe a few hours faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Money frames coming through 54 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 60 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Very heavy snow throughout region through 57 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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