Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[TowsonWeather]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Y’all better not sleep on the norlun trough idea. That thing could be pretty epic if that ends up being the main player for snowfall. Even if the coastal misses, a solid phase and a moisture transport between 925-500mb can still be pretty prolific. Forecasted some 12-18” norluns across the Northeast in my time. Not saying 12-18” is in the realm of possibility here, but they can pack quite a punch for a period when they setup. 
 

Liked the tends a lot today for the storm prospects, so I want to see this maintain or improve beginning tonight. That NS interaction across the Continental divide into the plains will be really important. More interaction will lead to better influences downstream. That was something noted on cluster analysis that more interaction and phasing early allows for heights downstream over Atlantic Canada to pump meaning greater amplitude of the trough upstream. A positive feedback mechanism. This is also coincident to the more coupled 25H jet composition which is what you want for an intensifying SLP along the Atlantic seaboard. 
 

I remain on the winter desk tomorrow through the weekend, so I’m still trying to reel this one home for us. My time here depends on it according to Randy 

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

Not sure if anyone posted this or not but the individual members really dont get any better than this..  the vast majority are west of the mean.. maybe too much?

[TowsonWeather]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Is the "IVT" this storm's version of the "sampled flight data" from last storm?  I don't recall reading about IVTs in other storms in several years?

It doesn't happen with every storm. But we've definitely had them plenty of times before.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Is the "IVT" this storm's version of the "sampled flight data" from last storm?  I don't recall reading about IVTs in other storms in several years?

They are a a north of Philly thing. We are losing if we depend on that shit.

[Jake Wx]

18z WEATHERNEXT AI

[Amped]

2 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

18z WEATHERNEXT AI

I am fully prepared for this to come a lot closer than we all thought but still no cigar.

[Brianonymous]

This is like a 2 week normal snow thread rollercoaster, condensed down into a day or two. Neat.

[SnowGolfBro]

The biggest takeaway from 18z for me is that the GFS coastal bomb scenario went from impossible to unlikely.  A HUGE upgrade in hopium

[Ji]

Latest Blend 

I mean gfs gives you 30

[stormtracker]

[Imgoinhungry]

Pbp should be extra spicy


.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, PBP is going to be interesting

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Control yourself. I don’t see an umbrella in your drink. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

I mean gfs gives you 30

Yeah but this isnt the GFS- Its a blend, and more in touch with reality

[TowsonWeather]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm jealous. Now I want Mexican and margs

[Nomz]

When 00z comes in over bermuda

 

 

[Duca892]

Can a man get a god damn NAM'ing plesae 

[caviman2201]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ahh the ol spicy rim... 

[CAPE]

Not sure if this has been posted- probably has but I'm a little drunk and just noticed it. Damn bourbon.

 

King GFS?  LOL

[stormtracker]

And now these mfers gave us free shots.  I told them i need to be coherent for the GFS pbp. The stare was as blank as an untitled document in Word.  

[IronTy]

36 minutes ago, CAPE said:

They are a a north of Philly thing. We are losing if we depend on that shit.

Roger, guess I need to read up on them as I don't ever recall so much angst over it in my time here.  

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

And now these mfers gave us free shots.  I told them i need to be coherent for the GFS pbp. The stare was as blank as an untitled document in Word.  

What will be a better PBP? Randy Drunk AF or Ji over on Patreon?

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

And now these mfers gave us free shots.  I told them i need to be coherent for the GFS pbp. The stare was as blank as an untitled document in Word.  

Drunk PbP should be fun.

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not sure if this has been posted- probably has but I'm a little drunk and just noticed it. Damn bourbon.

 

King GFS?  LOL

We saw it once before.  A long time ago. 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

#HoCoBullseye

[winter_warlock]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

What will be a better PBP? Randy Drunk AF or Ji over on Patreon?

Either one would be highly entertaining!

[Jake Wx]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

And now these mfers gave us free shots.  I told them i need to be coherent for the GFS pbp. The stare was as blank as an untitled document in Word.  

goat

[Jake Wx]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

#HoCoBullseye

Columbia is prime time 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

And now these mfers gave us free shots.  I told them i need to be coherent for the GFS pbp. The stare was as blank as an untitled document in Word.  

By 1030 Whitney might be more coherent to do it. You can drink in April.  

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

And now these mfers gave us free shots.  I told them i need to be coherent for the GFS pbp. The stare was as blank as an untitled document in Word.