Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Ji]

Is there anything to the LA rain rule?  Forecast is for heavy rain there Th.   Usually that means a big east coast storm is coming?

Jb rule

[Interstate]

This might be premature... but I like the backside energy on the H5 42

[87storms]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Is there anything to the LA rain rule?  Forecast is for heavy rain there Th.   Usually that means a big east coast storm?

In a zonal flow, yes. I miss the days when we’d get an easy west to east system that redeveloped over the TN Valley.

[Nomz]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I wouldn’t go that far lol, but it has improved. I can recall numerous winter storm watches and warnings growing up that ended up being a bust for a variety of reasons (downsloping, temps, etc.). Models didn’t seem to handle the impacts of terrain very well.

I got it from this review
https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/126785/aav7274_CombinedPDF_v1.pdf?sequenc 

[Amped]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

This might be premature... but I like the backside energy on the H5 42

Yeah there's a little more ridging building over the west coast too, but slightly lower heights ahead may offset.

[Snowman.]

0z AI GFS improved from 18z

[Solution Man]

GFS not backing down through 75

[midatlanticweather]

We need constant improvement from each of the more trustworthy models from here forward 

 

 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Solution Man said:

GFS, not backing down through 75

Good! We need double down not back down, let’s get after it. 

[Interstate]

87-93H will let us know

[bncho]

Ladies and gents, it's the 0z suite. Let's get started.

[Solution Man]

Snow on doorstep at 84

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Ladies and gents, it's the 0z suite. Let's get started.

Yes but can the H5 catch up and capture

[NorthArlington101]

GFS is a bomb

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GFS at 90

[Interstate]

The H5 at 87 look even more negative tilted

[Solution Man]

Moderate snow through region @87

[Weather Will]

93

[Scraff]

Bring that queso @bncho Love it. 

[Weather Will]

96

[Cobalt]

The lower heights out front are negated by the stronger h5 low and a nice shift of the ridge out West. Encouraging to see that backing into Idaho over the last few runs. 

[Interstate]

Just now, Interstate said:

The H5 at 87 look even more negative tilted

[Jake Wx]

oh ok i see you

[Weather Will]

99

[Solution Man]

998 of OBX @ 98

[Solution Man]

Pounding….Gloucester,,,Richmond….CAPETOWN, rocked…up through Md eastern shore 

[SnowenOutThere]

Its even better than its 18z run. It has a slightly stronger and more westward H5

[Weather Will]

102

[WEATHER53]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

Ladies and gents, it's the 0z suite. Let's get started.

That high is near perfection 

[87storms]

Gfs wants to give OC one of its greatest snowstorms on record.