Masswx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: NAM not as amped as 18z Recovering now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Any trends up here? Maybe a hair less but within model noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Bit of an LBSW on the HRRR. Though still very impactful lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I really like the 3k NAM…so much that I really don’t even look at the 12k much anymore except for mid/upper charts that aren’t as readily available with the 3k. I don’t view the SREFs much anymore…ineedsnow forces me to see it. But when they transitioned away from the ETA and RSM members for the NMM and ARW we still kept watchful eyes on it. You would know better than me what the verification stats are, but sensible wx wise I feel like the NMM members performed better. Even with this storm, the SREFs have had some members tracking the sfc low into LI or SE MA. No other operational models are doing that. They’re still pretty far NW at 21z, but every run they keep ticking SE toward the globals But I appreciate all of the work that goes into these models and in trying to further the science and improve the verification and resolution. I agree with all of this as the transition started happening when I was still forecasting full time. The older SREF suite definitely seemed to handle east coast cyclogenesis better so they had a decent amount of utility in those types of storms. I remember they were hammering some of that banding in the Jan 2011 storm too and eventually most of the other guidance converged to them. I’ll also say they used to perform exceptionally in the SWFEs too. I used them constantly in the 2007-08 and 2008-09 winters with excellent results. Obviously the newer SREFs are superior to the older ones in many other areas, but it came at the expense of one of the more important types of event we forecast for in this part of the county. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 now-casting this will be a ton of fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't love the trends today.....hoping 00z changes, but not a good start, apparently. less amped might actually be better for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Seems too slow Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: less amped might actually be better for us.. yeah seems like its closing off at 500 a bit slower anyway compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 23 minutes ago, Masswx said: Recovering now It did a loop off the mid-Atlantic but hugs the coast somewhat. Recovered nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, ma blizzard said: yeah seems like its closing off at 500 a bit slower anyway compared to 18z Oh, good....I stop looking at guidance for like the final 18 hours before a big dog, otherwise I'll drive everyone batshit. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 30 minutes ago, SeanInWayland said: I recall reading in a book about the blizzard of '78 that there were two local maxima around Boston--Burlington with 50" and Foxboro-Sharon with close to the same. So yeah, other storms have a long way to go to match 78. Burlington the next town over from Woburn, so makes sense that total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Track of NAM is just slightly north of 18z at 39hr. 1mb weaker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3k is wild! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Definitely a further northward tug. I can tell right away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 3k is wild! Jeez it is. What a slow crawler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Toms River NJ jack on this run.. Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 1mb weaker Oh fuck! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, dendrite said: I really like the 3k NAM…so much that I really don’t even look at the 12k much anymore except for mid/upper charts that aren’t as readily available with the 3k. I don’t view the SREFs much anymore…ineedsnow forces me to see it. But when they transitioned away from the ETA and RSM members for the NMM and ARW we still kept watchful eyes on it. You would know better than me what the verification stats are, but sensible wx wise I feel like the NMM members performed better. Even with this storm, the SREFs have had some members tracking the sfc low into LI or SE MA. No other operational models are doing that. They’re still pretty far NW at 21z, but every run they keep ticking SE toward the globals But I appreciate all of the work that goes into these models and in trying to further the science and improve the verification and resolution. I hate to call any model useless, but if my name was 'Big Balls' and I worked at DOGE, I'd probably get rid of the SREF (and maybe the CFS in favor of AI). It's consistently overamped during costal storms and I never use it either. It's configuration isn't ideal for severe weather/convection too (16km dxdy/only 40 vertical levels). The one + about it, the individual members are very diversified. Some fun combinations of schemes which promotes a huge model spread (ideal for an ensemble!)... It'd be replaced by the RRFS though. It's quite fun to work with! Unfortunately, I do think WRF will be replaced by something like the MPAS. In terms of efficiency, the MPAS is better (takes less resources to run)... No need to feed bcs onto 3 different grids. It's the future and we're already experiencing it (FV3 core; ignoring AI). Generally, we're told not to configure modeling systems with a resolution ~12km. It's a gray zone for convective parameterization... Too fine for parameterization, but too course to explicitly predict it. We need NAM 12km to feed NAM 3km bcs. It's a sacrificial lamb. <4km should do fine with convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I don't think I have ever seen the HRRR this nuts w/ winds gusts this high over such a large area. Huge area of 65 kt + gusts. And you look how far NW the sfc freezing line gets (makes it to Weymouth), Some serious damage from wet paste S of BOS. I envision CoastalWx losing power or internet for an extended period. What will he do? Can't go the library b/c it will be closed! He'll have to drive around w/ his PC running in his car to find a WiFi hotspot! What about 5G? One thing I have found during big snowstorms, cell networks get extra taxed and way slow at times. And cell towers need power as well. Time to pull out a Telebit 56k modem for dial-up?! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Oh fuck! It made a miraculous recovery. Same strength next panel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Oh fuck! It's ok the 3k is 2mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Nam is not less amped just doesn’t get precip as far north as.. low is a tic north .. 25-50” around southern ct through nyc metro to central jersey wild run .. another jack NE too 20-30” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I just want a damn blizzard warning.. 3k would do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 This 3km NAM run is pants tent in SE MA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, ineedsnow said: I just want a damn blizzard warning.. 3k would do it Finally got one after 9 years 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 00z HRRR slays looks like timing is a bit slower than 18z run. Qpf way down from 18z run despite similar track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 This would be an interesting 3 hours… 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 lol SE Mass. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 NAM 10 to 1 in NJ still think heavier totals come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: lol SE Mass. Just keeps snowing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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