“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think the rate of maturation is a huge issue in these latest iterations....it's just getting booted ENE.

Which is why even being west don’t guarantee much. The NAM run is west but still gearing up to be punted set. Need it to come north 

[George001]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Which is why even being west don’t guarantee much. The NAM run is west but still gearing up to be punted set. Need it to come north 

NAM = garbage outside of 24 hours. Like you said in your previous post, we need another bump NW from the Euro at 0z. The Euro isn’t perfect, but no fucking way am I ignoring what it shows this close to the event. 

[Diggiebot]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Which is why even being west don’t guarantee much. The NAM run is west but still gearing up to be punted set. Need it to come north 

Hence a sema cc special 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It always comes down to where it gets kicked ENE, I just don't like these systems in general that form off the Carolinas, To many things to go wrong.

Yup, I prefer off of s NJ or Delmarva....but that has been a theme this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, George001 said:

NAM = garbage outside of 24 hours. Like you said in your previous post, we need another bump NW from the Euro at 0z.

The NAM disparaging seems like a defense mechanism because it matches the EURO and GFS pretty well.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup, I prefer off of s NJ or Delmarva....but that has been a theme this season.

Exactly, Were on the same page.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Which is why even being west don’t guarantee much. The NAM run is west but still gearing up to be punted set. Need it to come north 

Well, that was a much better run than 18z.....just not there yet.

[dryslot]

Can't gauge the rest of the 0z suite off the Nam anyways as its in la la land.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The NAM disparaging seems like a defense mechanism because it matches the EURO and GFS pretty well.

 

Just now, dryslot said:

Can't gauge the rest of the 0z suite off the Nam anyways as its in la la land.

 

[George001]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The NAM disparaging seems like a defense mechanism because it matches the EURO and GFS pretty well.

No defense mechanism here. I literally agreed with him that we need another bump NW, Euro is more east than the NAM. I would be saying the same shit if the NAM showed a monster 2 foot blizzard. We are on the same page about the Euro, I know some people here don’t like it but this close in it’s quite good. 

[ineedsnow]

Icon going to be closer at 0z but was pretty crappy at 18z

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

NAM was weird at h500.  Like the kicker was almost a phaser.

Lousy wave spacing there.

[Typhoon Tip]

NAM skill in this range is vaguely dependable at best. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think the rate of maturation is a huge issue in these latest iterations....it's just getting booted ENE.

I think rate matters because as lows rapidly deepen they tend to get pulled to the H5 low. And in this case because it can’t move much in latitude it gets pulled west before the whole thing unravels and it gets booted ENE. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Last 4 runs is a clear and impactful shift though. Kinda looking at that and not the end result. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

No defense mechanism here. I literally agreed with him that we need another bump NW, Euro is more east than the NAM. I would be saying the same shit if the NAM showed a monster 2 foot blizzard. 

I want to see continued improvement from the varsity models because if they come in still looking like the NAM, we may be arriving at a suboptimal consensus.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Closer in it’s better but hour 84…

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think rate matters because as lows rapidly deepen they tend to get pulled to the H5 low. And in this case because it can’t move much in latitude it gets pulled west before the whole thing unravels and it gets booted ENE. 

I understand that, but all I meant was that it doesn't seem to be as "LBSW" like.....still not there yet, but I think we have seen some improvememnt with that.

[dryslot]

I'm more concerned about the boob lows and convection to the east mucking this up once again like the last coastal.

[Prismshine Productions]

Iconic closest it has been in 36 hours

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Lousy wave spacing there.

That's been a consistent theme. I'll keep model watching through Saturday morning. Some snow tomorrow will keep it less stressful to track.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

What I am interested in seeing is if we were observing the beginning of major shift with the varsity suite at 18z, like John intimated we may be....I wouldn't expect the NAM to portend that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Closer in it’s better but hour 84…

Not arguing that, but if it looks like the other models, not sure I see the point

[SouthCoastMA]

RGEM looking more amped at 66. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ugh....cardio at 430AM....just gonna catch the GFS, then crash.

[George001]

I’m gonna stay up for the AIFS and Euro then wake up for the full 6z suite. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ugh....cardio at 430AM....just gonna catch the GFS, then crash.

And a 4k calorie breakfast to follow?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And a 4k calorie breakfast to follow?

My breakfast every day is a protein shake. I'm not sure why you and Kev seem to think I weigh 350lbs.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Iconic closest it has been in 36 hours

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

We’re in the midst of the whip back trend that would seem

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My breakfast every day is a protein shake. I'm not sure why you and Kev seem to think I weigh 350lbs.

Lol. I bust. Last time I saw you at the gtg you ordered a new meal everytime Kev filled his beer glass. Crushed every dish in that place.