“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[MuddyWx]

Impressively consistent with 18z, but why can't I buy it 

[Henry's Weather]

00z vs. 18z GFS (grain of salt, amateur analysis)

confluence in 50/50 region trended weaker but what was far more impactful was the speed of the kicker (faster) and the decreased amplitude of ridging preceding the s/w.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Wishlist over next 48 hours:

Stronger omega block, N trend confluence, slower/weaker kicker, stronger ridge centered over ID.

Giving this one a 20% of hitting

Good post.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We’ll end up with some type of compromise in the end between gfs/euro which unfortunately won’t be enough to wet our whistles. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

UK is a whiff. Worse than 12z. 

[SnoSki14]

25 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Wishlist over next 48 hours:

Stronger omega block, N trend confluence, slower/weaker kicker, stronger ridge centered over ID.

Giving this one a 20% of hitting

Yeah odds are against it given the seasonal trends but it's fun having something to track. 

And at least spring is around the corner. 

[weathafella]

GFS AI is bupkis for the most part.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Will be a fitting end to this winter to whiff on all 3 potential snow events this week down here.

One memorable event

[weathafella]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Will be a fitting end to this winter to whiff on all 3 potential snow events this week down here.

One memorable event

One historically memorable but several moderate events.  Best winter in 4 years.

[Ginx snewx]

70 knots at 925 blizzard 

[weathafella]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

70 knots at 925 blizzard 

Too bad the fish don’t feel it in air speed….

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Too bad the fish don’t feel it in air speed….

That's over  Harwich Cape Cod Massachusetts USA 

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Will be a fitting end to this winter to whiff on all 3 potential snow events this week down here.

One memorable event

 

34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’ll end up with some type of compromise in the end between gfs/euro which unfortunately won’t be enough to wet our whistles. 

Two major models showing a foot here. It's not inside 96 yet.  

[brooklynwx99]

AIFS is significantly NW

[MJO812]

Euro AI with a big shift west

[MJO812]

[brooklynwx99]

legit major storm for parts of SNE 

[Snowcrazed71]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Well well well .... Let's bring it in another 25-50 miles and the while tri-state will be involved

[NoCORH4L]

Off hours drunk run?

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Off hours drunk run?

0z isnt an off hour

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro is bleh. Better than 12z but significantly worse than 18z.

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

??  Only the AI is out and it’s the Best Run in 3 Days.  

Euros been out for a while, its worse than 18Z but better than 12Z. still off shore

[George001]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You can pick and choose..that's what a forecaster does, dude. Having the EURO as the main voice of dessent gives me some serious pause.

I didn’t word that great, I disagree with picking and choosing that it sucks vs is good depending on how much snow it shows. Picking and choosing because certain models are better in certain setups or you are seeing something in the large scale pattern that favors a certain outcome…. Yeah that’s good forecasting. I’m criticizing doomcasting, not what you are doing. Wanting the Euro suite to stabilize as a hit before buying in is reasonable. My issue is with the side with the models that show the least snow process (imo a lot of people have overcorrected due to recent lean years). Again, you aren’t doing that, and honestly I don’t disagree with you. I’m not on the blizzard train myself. I’m not ruling it out, but gun to head I’d favor a glancing blow. Once the Euro stabilizes and what solution it locks on to will be very telling.

[George001]

Euro AI is back on board for a major storm. If the regular Euro and EPS jump on board tomorrow that would be huge. Hopefully we can get a big bump west, big 12z runs coming up.

[ineedsnow]

Last few model runs have shown a more amplified downstream ridge
and have thus trended back northwest with a potentially very
powerful coastal storm Sun night into Mon. That being said,
these trends moreso serve to underscore the run-to-run
variability as this is a Day 4-5 forecast, which is an eternity
in the model world. If these trends continue as much of the
guidance suggests, then there may be a period of perhaps
significant impacts Sunday night into Monday. Plenty of time
here and the model trends will be very important over the next
48 hours. Not much more we can say at this point, but it is way
too early to write this one off and it still bears watching.

 

[CoastalWx]

Both ai and eps ensemble west of 18z.

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Both ai and eps ensemble west of 18z.

don't do it

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Both ai and eps ensemble west of 18z.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

One historically memorable but several moderate events.  Best winter in 4 years.

Yep thats not even debatable since 22-23 was 01-02 level bad. 23-24 and 24-25 were also dog shit winters that didn't even crack 20" here. 

21-22 was the last OK (at best) winter across the region.