“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[CT Rain]

This hobby is truly the worst.

[MuddyWx]

Nice event for eastern SNE verbatim on the GFS. Still potential, especially for eastern SNE

[Kitz Craver]

AI way east

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

This hobby is truly the worst.

you would think this is meaningful, but the euro will somehow find a way when it’s been god awful all year 

[Ginx snewx]

So much to work with. Got my attention now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Do the AI goofus now…

[dryslot]

Need the euro to even acknowledge this one or meh.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

This hobby is truly the worst.

For real. Imagine doing this for a living? Good luck…

[CT Rain]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

For real. Imagine doing this for a living? Good luck…

At least with work if it misses I won't have to work all day Sunday lol

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

This hobby is truly the worst.

That's no moon.  It's an addiction

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Need the euro to even acknowledge this one or meh.

Has to IMO

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, CT Rain said:

At least with work if it misses I won't have to work all day Sunday lol

You guys had the backups in for the SWFE, no? 

[cleetussnow]

Better - but within 'error' envelope that this could be as well east.  It's not a definitive motif.  Needs more work to say that but there is time and we can all stay tuned.  

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you would think this is meaningful, but the euro will somehow find a way when it’s been god awful all year 

It’s like Moses parting the Red Sea

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

At least with work if it misses I won't have to work all day Sunday lol

Sorry Ryan, if it means we get this big storm and you have to work on Sunday, you'll have to take one on the chin for all of us. Lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

At least with work if it misses I won't have to work all day Sunday lol

Let’s yank this NW for a SNE blizzard and we’ll get Woody to bring you beer. 

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Do the AI goofus now…

It was trending better at first then went to crap

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If a missed opportunity this would be it. Look at this setup 

That really does give one pause in dismissing this...    That 'bump' ridge there in Ontario, is actually REX block - it's just less obvious for being weak.    The key is actually the Maritime low, because between said REX block and that low, that is a huuuge mangus ton of wave mechanics that has to go some where, when it winds up underneath those two. It's going break on the Del Marva in that progression/extrapolation. 

If you look at the Euro's 12z run for that same interval above, you can see what it's doing differently ... It's placing the emphasis on the 2nd S/W feature up there in Manitoba. That little piece of shit above, is a massive S/W in the Euro ...but it's not good. It's in a different phase wrt the total continental wave spacing.  The lead needs to be the one, which is what the GFS/CMC ... well most other guidance was doing at 12z ... 

It's why I'm still 50/50. I only admit that the Euro is physically possible - I need to see this whole mess at 84 hours frankly.   

[WeatherGeek2025]

[8611Blizz]

This storm needs to shit or get off the pot.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

24 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

Would be a little happy about this if the AI version didn’t just boot even further east then 12z with the storm lol

The AI version has moved 1000 miles in the past 24 hours 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

This storm needs to shit or get off the pot.  

mm  not really.  It's 5 days away

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  not really.  It's 5 days away

this is pretty undeniably good. i like seeing the Pacific trough back up so that the ridge axis is closer to ID

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looks like the OP was on the NW side of gefs. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks like the OP was a NW outlier of every gefs member though. 

if this is indeed real, the GEFS will be SE until the very end 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if this is indeed real, the GEFS will be SE until the very end 

Why so?

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Why so?

it’s just nearly always progressive with EC storms 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is pretty undeniably good. i like seeing the Pacific trough back up so that the ridge axis is closer to ID

Agree

[78Blizzard]

I'm waiting for that Euro run that shows us getting destroyed.  Hopefully not a wait in vain.  Then we'll know it's game on.

We'll see the GFS getting back to those snow maps we saw on 3 consecutive runs on Monday.

I can dream, can't I?

 

[brooklynwx99]

it sucks, if it was any other model than the euro, i would have no problem tossing it