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Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th


Rjay
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Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

doesn't climb as much ambit to me it's noise that's a strong system

a "Strong System" is great and all, but the problem is once its super closed off like that, its tough to get latitude unless the tilt of the whole longwave it resides in is negative, even then odds are by the time it gets north its occluded

Even so, its hard to look at that 500mb chart and not like where we are at the moment. 

We not far off from a historic storm

We're also not far off from a complete whiff too, but ya know lol

 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep but still a good run. Its right there.

We need to see the whiff models trend towards the GFS/CMC, GFS AI was a start. 

It's ok if the GFS/CMC aren't a bullseye yet but ensembles and other models need to trend towards them. 

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3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

UKMET a miss

 

prateptype_ukmo-imp.us_ma.png

yup. Unlike the GFS and CMC, which are still "wide right", the UKMET lingers a piece of energy over SE Canada that suppresses heights along the coast and forces the system easy instead of NNE then NE

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