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The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026


Rjay
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my daughter's friend is driving from philly to brooklyn right now with a van full of snakes. i am not making this up. he can't stop for the night they can't sit in the van in the cold, and he can't take them into the hotel with him......

Sequel to Snakes on a Plane?


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Let's do a quick model performance review of the 12Z clown maps snowfall thus. I can't speak for everyone, but all models were busting low relative to what we have here in Brick, NJ. Demonstrates that even the mesoscales are struggling with the dynamics. 

12Z HRRR

image.thumb.png.22221f212efd4f3fb13e1f9b4f42d850.png

 

12Z RGEM

 

image.thumb.png.55c4f8a3f27ab299da452a60cd956c1b.png

12Z NAM 3K

image.thumb.png.b49f7e7d6f9b1858f5a78ab77c1f3b8b.png12Z 12K NAM

image.thumb.png.8f74c2f7b38a085b29c594aa4e7b7a6a.png

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45 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

 

image.png.5f306a51b3f9c3496b6f790eb58ad153.png

Mesoscale Discussion 0115
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0624 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

   Areas affected...New York City into Southern New England

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 230024Z - 230530Z

   SUMMARY...A long-duration moderate/heavy snowfall event will
   increasingly impact NYC into parts of southern New England this
   evening into Monday morning. 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates will
   be likely, particularly after midnight EST.

   DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery from the northern
   Mid-Atlantic/southern New England shows a band of moderate to heavy
   snow moving slowly northward into Long Island. Already, recent
   surface observations reported 1 inch in the last hour at Islip,
   LaGuardia, and JFK. This band should continue to impact parts of
   southern New England this evening. The highest snowfall rates will
   at least initially remain near the coast. With time, the 994 mb low
   analyzed off the Mid-Atlantic coast will deepen, particularly after
   11 pm/midnight EST. This will eventually promote a broader zone of
   stronger isentropic ascent that will promote more widespread
   moderate/heavy snow farther north. Surface winds will also
   concurrently increase with the deepening of the low. Blizzard
   conditions will be possible late this evening into Monday morning.

   ..Wendt.. 02/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   40437381 40837418 41297422 41837324 42027152 41987060
               41757033 41347048 40437381 

I'm assuming this is good news for southern Westchester folks? Coorrect?

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR has snow until tomorrow afternoon. Very impressive run.

Overnight is going to be insane

Screenshot_20260222_201425_Chrome.jpg


A little bit beyond its range but 3PM monday still snowing into much of the area

ref1km_ptype.us_ma.png

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR has snow until tomorrow afternoon. Very impressive run.

Overnight is going to be insane

Screenshot_20260222_201425_Chrome.jpg

northern middlesex and southern union are really on the fringe for the best stuff....hope we cash in. but its still a lot of snow if this is in any way accurate....would put us way above average. in keeping with snowy decembers....

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45 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 7 pm, we have 4.0" of snow, so 1.5" last hour as it's been snowing close to heavily (not crazy heavy, but visibility maybe 3/8 of a mile. Temp still 31F. Just finished my first shoveling and it wasn't too bad - bottom snow layer was wet but snow falling now is somewhat drier, but still packs.

As of 8 pm, 5.25" in Metuchen and it's still 31F; snowing close to heavily but radar is showing a couple of SW to NE oriented bands moving NW towards us, which look really heavy, like maybe 2" per hour heavy.

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I think you guys up north (NYC, and points East,)  may do much better than those of us along coastal Ocean County, NJ.

We need temps to drop soon in order to achieve the currently projected totals.  This is not a post designed to troll or downplay the storm.  Im fully aware of the dynamics involved, and what may lay ahead for those of us down here, but I'm using quite a few decades of life on the water here to make my call.  

As soon as rates fall, im watching our slush compress and melt away into a saturated and fairly warm surface, losing half of what we gain with each higher-rate band.

Could absolutely see points North of Point Pleasant doing better, but I believe we will struggle to pull off more than 8-12 down here in Forked River and Waretown.  Not screaming, "bust," but preparing others for what looks fairly likely at this point.   I am in no way tossing NWS forecasts, but using real-time observations to predict that more southern coastal areas may see a walk-back in total accumulation.  The system is still incredibly enjoyable to track and experience, and I would love to eat crow.  

To those in the jackpot zones, soak it up!  ...and post some pictures.  Cheers. 

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