The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

AI. Cut back a touch

this is now now casting time using radars and various types of surface reports and observations - I don't think any model can keep up to date at this time because of all the complex interactions in the atmosphere constantly changing

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

time will tell thats all I have to say

And therein lies part of the problem. People have been calling this a historic storm now for 24 hours before even a flake falls.
 

 I'm not even sure what the word historic means anymore, to break into the top 20 the city needs 15.4 inches from the storm. Would that be historic? If they get 15.3 is that not historic? They got 11.4 inches last month so if they get 11.3 is that a bust? 
 

I get the excitement and I hope it is a great storm, but people calling a storm historic before anything happens.......

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

12z HREF through tomorrow 12z:

Even if on deducts one category, NYC has 12"-15" of snow by 12z tomorrow on the HREF.

What are your thoughts on the GFS and general model cut-backs? Could the further south solution be due to the warmer water temps being south?

[Mail Man]

Dooming time feels like it happens all the time 

[MANDA]

17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

problem I see - the Nam cut totals at 12Z and the Canadian already had reduced total at 0Z Last night

 

Speaking as a member of the N & W crowd I'm with you.  There were some concerning signals popping up last evening.  One reason I did not go higher than 12-18".  Even thought about leaving my 10-15" forecast alone.  Not a good thing when you have to rely on banding and ratios to get you to the finish line.  It can get you there but you don't want to have to depend on it.  I just want to get 12" here to verify my forecast.  Personally I think the 18" high end is fading for this area and for near certain N & W of here.  Just gotta watch radar and mesos from here on in.  One of my concerns has always been the RGEM was never on board for big totals out this way.  The RGEM is not a trash model.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And therein lies part of the problem. People have been calling this a historic storm now for 24 hours before even a flake falls.
 

 I'm not even sure what the word historic means anymore, to break into the top 20 the city needs 15.4 inches from the storm. Would that be historic? If they get 15.3 is that not historic? They got 11.4 inches last month so if they get 11.3 is that a bust? 
 

I get the excitement and I hope it is a great storm, but people calling a storm historic before anything happens.......

I would rate historic as in the top 10 % of all time greatest snowstorms

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Literally zero support for this 

There was as of the last model cycle, the NWS doesn’t fluctuate as rapidly as this forum. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, Mail Man said:

Dooming time feels like it happens all the time 

often enough....the last storm was not advertised as the apocalypse though...we knew we would lose a lot to sleet. 

[Jt17]

Literally zero support for this 

You like looking at 3 models with the lowest totals and selectively forgetting the models that do show more and deciding that's your forecast. They like to see a sub 970 low crawling up the coast and chilling by Atlantic City and extrapolate that the higher end of model guidance is more likely since that should dump a ton of snow.


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[wxman]

First flakes now in my backyard.  Temp 34.4 Let's go!  We are in nowcast mode. 

[EastonSN+]

Canadian

[Mail Man]

I’m more worried about the Rain as of now then the east trend

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

often enough....the last storm was not advertised as the apocalypse though...we knew we would lose a lot to sleet. 

But yet forum wide there was 11-18 inches. A few exceptions on the shore and CNJ. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Mail Man said:

I’m more worried about the Rain as of now then the east trend

really....this is steady rain now....

[North and West]

Every time, no matter what happens, remember it is out of our control. All of it is. No matter if it surprises or disappoints, you can’t change it. Maybe you want to prove you’re smarter or better one or another, but no matter what you think, you have no impact on the final outcome. Enjoy the journey.


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[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And therein lies part of the problem. People have been calling this a historic storm now for 24 hours before even a flake falls.
 

 I'm not even sure what the word historic means anymore, to break into the top 20 the city needs 15.4 inches from the storm. Would that be historic? If they get 15.3 is that not historic? They got 11.4 inches last month so if they get 11.3 is that a bust? 
 

I get the excitement and I hope it is a great storm, but people calling a storm historic before anything happens.......

I thought it’s mostly historic cuz of the strength and wind. The snow totals other than the NAM/GFS haven’t been that historic for NYC. It’ll be a historic snowfall for the NJ coast. 

[Juturna]

Idk she looks quite healthy to me and the upper levels aren’t even developed yet. She looks like she’s going to be a monster. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

But yet forum wide there was 11-18 inches. A few exceptions on the shore and CNJ. 

not much of nj saw more than a foot, and was not expected to.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, Mail Man said:

I’m more worried about the Rain as of now then the east trend

That’s the least of the worries. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Canadian

if that were to verify it would only be a SECS in many areas - I would discount it at the present time

[RDRY]

East tics have now taken the heavy band offshore On the GFS. It's 6-8 if that happens.

[Stormlover74]

Down to 35 snow mixing in

[psv88]

GEM LEM looks great. 
 

don’t mind the cut back. Less snow clearing for the wife and less damage for me to repair in the marriage lol

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

You like looking at 3 models with the lowest totals and selectively forgetting the models that do show more and deciding that's your forecast. They like to see a sub 970 low crawling up the coast and chilling by Atlantic City and extrapolate that the higher end of model guidance is more likely since that should dump a ton of snow.


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As of latest cycle there is not one model that paints 20+ for all of nj, nyc, and Long Island. Only the NAM had that to begin with. 
 

all I’m saying is their isn’t support for those numbers as “expected” especially in the western part of the area - when all short range models have scaled back and come closer to the globals. 
 

going to be an amazing storm. Just keeping it real. 

[Mail Man]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

That’s the least of the worries. 

I hope so because I’m still rain. Then again I’m on the coast

[weatherpruf]

Just now, North and West said:

Every time, no matter what happens, remember it is out of our control. All of it is. No matter if it surprises or disappoints, you can’t change it. Maybe you want to prove you’re smarter or better one or another, but no matter what you think, you have no impact on the final outcome. Enjoy the journey.


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this. its just all the people who downplayed it, well, can you blame them? storm hasn't gotten going yet, so we wait for nws to start dropping totals and making excuses. and, its really hard to get a blockbuster in cnj in late feb....boston different story. i have no idea what will happen but frankly, at 63 and no garage to keep equipment in, 2 feet is a bit much for me. i've got to dig my stuff out of a shed at the other end of the yard...

[Juturna]

2 minutes ago, RDRY said:

East tics have now taken the heavy band offshore On the GFS. It's 6-8 if that happens.

How is this helpful to anyone? First, 6-8 where? Even if you take the GFS verbatim, it’s pumping out over an inch liquid for a large portion of the forum. 

[winterwarlock]

Reggie'

 

'

[Prue11]

4 minutes ago, Mail Man said:

I’m more worried about the Rain as of now then the east trend

You gotta be kidding me lol you’ll be fine 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Mail Man said:

I hope so because I’m still rain. Then again I’m on the coast

The best dynamics will be right along the coast. It was expected to start as rain on the immediate coast, may last until mid afternoon.