The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

I'm usually not one to do this but just an awful performance by the Euro.  

lol

[brooklynwx99]

it has never been more happening in the history of happenings 

[SACRUS]

Biggest difference is the speed NAM-GFS vs RGEM/Euro etc otherwise very similar

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Agree. I always hated obs threads. 

But if a legend wanted to create one I would never say no.  Way too much respect for the man. 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol

So bad 

[Jt17]

So bad 

Two more runs and it will catch up the GFS while the first snowflakes already falling lol


.

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

2/22 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC
/
Total 10:1 Snow NYC c

 

 

SREF mean: 2.2 /  21
NAM: 2.8 / 27.5
NAM 3k: 2.0 / 19.5
ICON: 1.4 / 13.5
RGEM: 1.3 / 13.3
GFS: 1.6 / 16.7
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.6
GGEM: 1.5 / 13.8
GEFS: 1.7 / 17
UKMET: 1.2 / 11
EURO AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.7
EURO:  1.4 / 12.8  

 

2/22 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC
/
Total 10:1 Snow NYC

 

 

SREF mean: 2.2 /  21
NAM: 2.8 / 27.5
NAM 3k: 2.0 / 19.5
ICON: 1.4 / 13.5
RGEM: 1.3 / 13.3
GFS: 1.6 / 16.7
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.6
GGEM: 1.5 / 13.8
GEFS: 1.7 / 17
UKMET: 1.2 / 11
EURO AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.7
EURO:  1.4 / 12.8  

 

• Total QPF (NYC): 1.65 inches

• Total Snow (10:1, NYC): 16.0 inches

[Rjay]

Just now, Jt17 said:

Two more runs and it will catch up the GFS while the first snowflakes already falling lol


.

It did this in 2016.  Also none of the OPs ended up catching up completely to hi res guidance.  Also just like in 2016 it seems like have another battle between the hi res American guidance and the global OPs in regards to precipitation amounts. 

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes left to get your guesses in

[Snowlover11]

Lock it up, lock it in, let it begin

[WeatherGeek2025]

i'm in and i feel conservative now 

[WeatherGeek2025]

LfG!!!! wow this is exciting

[jm1220]

17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Agree. I always hated obs threads. 

Mine did pretty well this winter so far! (I'm not doing it lol)

[MANDA]

21 minutes ago, Rjay said:

So bad 

Just can never remember so much flip flopping.  It has had fails but this last week if runs was just horrendous.

[Rjay]

39 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Mine did pretty well this winter so far! (I'm not doing it lol)

You're one of the posters I respect the most so you have free rein to do whatever you want in regards to starting threads.  You and Rob should have green tags.  Bx and I are grateful for both of you. 

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Just can never remember so much flip flopping.  It has had fails but this last week if runs was just horrendous.

You look at the last 4 days of Euro runs and then compare it with this, it's actually crazy.

Last 16 runs of the gfs

 

 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

You're one of the posters I respect the most so you have free range to do whatever you want in regards to starting threads.  You and Rob should have green tags.  Bx and I are grateful for both of you. 

I have someone else in mind. @Allsnow

[Rjay]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I have someone else in mind. @Allsnow

We love him too lol

[Rjay]

He's getting possibly the blizzard of the decade for our sub named after him just as Randy did in 2016. 

[Nibor]

Did anyone post the 3z RAP?

[brooklynwx99]

SPC is forecasting a thundersnow risk!

 ...Discussion...

   Strong short-wave trough is digging southeast toward the OH Valley
   late this evening. This feature will phase with the southern stream
   and induce a surface low off the NC coast early in the period.
   Intense deepening is expected with this offshore cyclone which will
   lift north-northeast during the overnight hours.

   Isolated thunderstorms may develop along the trailing cold front as
   it surges south across the FL Peninsula during the day, but poor
   lapse rates and weak buoyancy suggest the risk for robust convection
   is not particularly high.

   Intense low-level warm advection will aid the potential for
   lightning discharge in midlevel convection along the middle Atlantic
   coast and southern New England. Forecast soundings suggest the
   majority of this activity will be within heavier snow bands along
   the northwest-north side of the cyclone.

   Across the Pacific northwest, significant midlevel cooling and
   steepening lapse rates are expected along the WA coast by early
   afternoon. Weak SBCAPE is expected to develop across this region and
   some risk for lightning is possible with convection that develops
   within this warm-advection regime.

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has a nice band near coastal NJ not too far south from NYC. Sometimes bands end up elsewhere than modeled.

IMO its impossible for any model to pinpoint exactly where any extreme amounts will fall caused by banding - have seen that happen in many storms over the years.

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Did anyone post the 3z RAP?

Snows itself out 

[Mo Snow]

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Did anyone post the 3z RAP?

That low does NOT want to move wow

[NEG NAO]

My question now is what is everyone's opinion on what could go wrong with this storm causing much lower snowfall amounts then modeled in certain areas ? One area I think that is overdone is  the NAMS 42 inches on the Ocean County coast .

[Mo Snow]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

My question now is what is everyone's opinion on what could go wrong with this storm causing much lower snowfall amounts then modeled in certain areas ?

Upton hedging with 3-23" lol

 

Mt. Holly has a crazier 1-25" for Philadelphia 

 

[WeatherFox]

Snowfall rates can jackpot with thunder snow. Though I have seen it go either way. Either heavy snow, or a change to sleet!

[MJO812]

Sref is very consistent

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO its impossible for any model to pinpoint exactly where any extreme amounts will fall caused by banding - have seen that happen in many storms over the years.

They usually end up further NW than forecast 

[WeatherFox]

8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

My question now is what is everyone's opinion on what could go wrong with this storm causing much lower snowfall amounts then modeled in certain areas ? One area I think that is overdone is  the NAMS 42 inches on the Ocean County coast .

Dry slot, boundary layer warms to mixed precip, storm track much further east of benchmark.