The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[Blizzardo]

I am on the All In go big or go home train!

[Metasequoia]

21 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I think NWS Upton’s WSW starting point of 6-10 inches for the NYC metro area….more on Long Island is very reasonable and realistic right now. I think the 0z runs tonight will allow us to narrow it down further as we very likely reach model consensus…..finally

I would love to know Snowman19's latest thoughts. 

[SACRUS]

2/21 12z GEFS

 

Total QPF Mean 2/22- 2/23-24

 

 

SNow 10:1

[nycsnow]

Omg the rap stalls south of li 

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/21 12z Summary

Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC

/
Snow 10:1  NYC

SREF: 1/8 / 17.1
NAM: 2.5 / 24.1
NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.4 / 13.9
RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1
GFS:  2.0 / 20.3
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.8
GGEM: 1.5 / 14.7
GEFS: 1.8 / 17.8

Updated with GEFS

[nycsnow]

still snowing and stalled

[Snowlover11]

10-20” lollis to 24”

[Jt17]

Updated with GEFS

The model outputs with lesser amounts are getting much bigger...


.

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

still snowing and stalled

Nudity

[SACRUS]

 

Track / speed more crucial on the 12z suite all looking good - great.  RGEM/ICON AIGFS a bit quicker than GFS/NAM.  The QPF will be better honed in on later 18z/00z and tomorrow with meso models.  At the time Nam/GFS more robust but banding likely under done on the globals in general.  There will likely (as occurs in these rapidly developing storms) bands that drop 0.5 or more in 2-3 hours / 3 - 6 inches of snow.

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Nudity

Not saying it cause it’s a bomb but RAP has been great 

only model to pick up on the sleet line stalling at Long Island sound 

[EasternLI]

UKIE amped up a bit

[nycsnow]

Ukie looks great 

[Jt17]

Ukie looks great 

Ukie playing a methodical yet slow game of catch up.


.

[donsutherland1]

The 14z experimental NBM V5.0:

[SACRUS]

 

2/21 12z UKMET
 

Total QPF 2/22-2/23- 24

 

 

Snow 10:1

[SACRUS]

 

UKIE Cyclone

 

[nycwinter]

steve d has 14-20 inches at the coast and 12-16 for the city and nearby areas..

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

steve d has 14-20 inches at the coast and 12-16 for the city and nearby areas..

Well he certainly changed his tune! 

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/21 12z Summary

Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC

/
Snow 10:1  NYC

SREF: 1/8 / 17.1
NAM: 2.5 / 24.1
NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.4 / 13.9
RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1
GFS:  2.0 / 20.3
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.8
GGEM: 1.5 / 14.7
GEFS: 1.8 / 17.8
UKMET: 1/2  / 12.9

Updated with UKMET

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Ukie looks great 

Solidly driving very heavy amounts well into the Catskills FWIW.

[SACRUS]

[MANDA]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 14z experimental NBM V5.0:

Nice look with the 20" number in NEPA.  Offers some credibility on solid amounts getting into NWNJ.

[JBWestchester]

3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Well he certainly changed his tune! 

After browbeating anyone who dared suggest a storm for the northern MA. 

[bwt3650]

Gfs got us here, but time to lean into the nam, rap, hrrr etc for details. For 48 hours, model after model to some degree is zoning in on Monmouth, ocean county, middlesex nj. Thats the jackpot. The rest of us can suffer with our 12-18. What a ride this winter. Glad it’s back.


.

[Nibor]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 14z experimental NBM V5.0:

This is the more conservative one?

[NJwx85]

The globals are under modeling the snow totals. It’s time to focus on the short term high res models to see where the best banding will be. The track and intensity at this point should be locked in.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

This is the more conservative one?

Yes. That's correct. For purposes of comparison, the 14z v.4.3 had 24.6" of snow in NYC vs. 19" on v.5.0.

[ILoveWinter]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The globals are under modeling the snow totals. It’s time to focus on the short term high res models to see where the best banding will be. The track and intensity at this point should be locked in.

I'd like to see the 12z Euro come west some but agree that we are getting closer to the meso's wheelhouse. 

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Updated with UKMET

Love seeing the large shift NW on the UKMET. Still the lowest however still a foot.