MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 6 to 12 is a good call for NYC It was but I think 12-18 is better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, psv88 said: I thought the Canadian looked great Yep nice shift west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, psv88 said: I thought the Canadian looked great It def trended better. Euro caves today or tn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Picard said: Watching the models, +/- 30 miles will make a big difference up here between less than 6" or more than 12". Personally, I'm routing for 6-12" and watching the costal areas get dumped on. I'm actually OK with not getting 18-20" up this way, but we'll see. Not looking to jinx anything, just giving my personal take. there’s an equation that needs to be balanced here. Heavier snow near the coast, but tomorrow during the day away from the cement jungle you’re gonna accumulate faster. it all shakes out in the wash, but the further you are from a cement jungle in a snowstorm with marginal temps the better off you are. Once the storm gets going and the sunsets it’s not gonna matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 At this point mostly looking at model noise. The exact distribution of the snowfall is going to be a nowcast situation (as almost always) with areas to the east favored...but there will be outliers like the 12Z GFS showing 21" for PHL while the Canadian shows 10". No great reason to pick one depiction over the other, both are plausible in this setup. Storm bears resemblance to Boxing Day 2010 but with a less extreme gradient (as currently depicted in the modeling)...but even in that storm it wasn't purely east-west in the snow totals...and with all the blowing and drifting will be hard to say who gets what, exactly. Right now I'd forecast 10" to 20" across NJ and call it a day unless something really surprises us as the day progresses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Mesos tonight will help us figure out the details. Going to step away for a bit so I don’t go crazy 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: I thought the Canadian looked great It did, very nice improvement, essentially in line with GFS now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, wxman said: At this point mostly looking at model noise. The exact distribution of the snowfall is going to be a nowcast situation (as almost always) with areas to the east favored...but there will be outliers like the 12Z GFS showing 21" for PHL while the Canadian shows 10". No great reason to pick one depiction over the other, both are plausible in this setup. Storm bears resemblance to Boxing Day 2010 but with a less extreme gradient (as currently depicted in the modeling)...but even in that storm it wasn't purely east-west in the snow totals...and with all the blowing and drifting will be hard to say who gets what, exactly. Right now I'd forecast 10" to 20" across NJ and call it a day unless something really surprises us as the day progresses. Spoken like an intelligent and prudent Hillsboroughian.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Bombing out 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, wxman said: At this point mostly looking at model noise. The exact distribution of the snowfall is going to be a nowcast situation (as almost always) with areas to the east favored...but there will be outliers like the 12Z GFS showing 21" for PHL while the Canadian shows 10". No great reason to pick one depiction over the other, both are plausible in this setup. Storm bears resemblance to Boxing Day 2010 but with a less extreme gradient (as currently depicted in the modeling)...but even in that storm it wasn't purely east-west in the snow totals...and with all the blowing and drifting will be hard to say who gets what, exactly. Right now I'd forecast 10" to 20" across NJ and call it a day unless something really surprises us as the day progresses. I think a cross between this one and the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 With the 12Z data so far this morning I am comfortable with my 10-15” forecast for my area. Don’t plan on any changes until after I see the mesos this evening. I think it is a good blend between the insane NAM totals and tamer RGEM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 And like every other monster storm... There will be subsidence outside the banding... And those areas will be considerably less snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Im tracking the storm for next week while tracking this one. Insane 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Euro still not on board ehIt hasn't run yet... And 6z was its best run yet. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: Euro still not on board eh it's more of a city east storm on the Euro...can't discount it 100%. There will be a sharp western cutoff somewhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I like 20-30 with lollies to 36 in areas!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Im tracking the storm for next week while tracking this one. Insane One at a time... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I am on the All In go big or go home train! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 21 hours ago, snowman19 said: I think NWS Upton’s WSW starting point of 6-10 inches for the NYC metro area….more on Long Island is very reasonable and realistic right now. I think the 0z runs tonight will allow us to narrow it down further as we very likely reach model consensus…..finally I would love to know Snowman19's latest thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 12z GEFS Total QPF Mean 2/22- 2/23-24 SNow 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Omg the rap stalls south of li 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: 2/21 12z Summary Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC / Snow 10:1 NYC SREF: 1/8 / 17.1 NAM: 2.5 / 24.1 NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6 ICON: 1.4 / 13.9 RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1 GFS: 2.0 / 20.3 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.8 GGEM: 1.5 / 14.7 GEFS: 1.8 / 17.8 Updated with GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 still snowing and stalled 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10-20” lollis to 24” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Updated with GEFSThe model outputs with lesser amounts are getting much bigger... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: still snowing and stalled Nudity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Track / speed more crucial on the 12z suite all looking good - great. RGEM/ICON AIGFS a bit quicker than GFS/NAM. The QPF will be better honed in on later 18z/00z and tomorrow with meso models. At the time Nam/GFS more robust but banding likely under done on the globals in general. There will likely (as occurs in these rapidly developing storms) bands that drop 0.5 or more in 2-3 hours / 3 - 6 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: Nudity Not saying it cause it’s a bomb but RAP has been great only model to pick up on the sleet line stalling at Long Island sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 UKIE amped up a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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