The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[qg_omega]

6 to 12 is a good call for NYC

[EasternLI]

Canadian amped up a bit vs 00z

[Blizzardo]

1 minute ago, Chet-NYC said:

Same here in Staten Island.  I vividly remember there was this strip that sort of went along the turnpike, including Staten Island, through Newark that got 30" or a bit more.   Even worse were the drifts.  I had 40" piled up against the front of my house. 

Newark, Elizabeth, Bloomfield were all 30+ I believe so yea draw a line. I encountered 15 foot drifts 

[Picard]

3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Certainly nw nj is under tight gradient

Watching the models, +/- 30 miles will make a big difference up here between less than 6" or more than 12".  Personally, I'm routing for 6-12" and watching the costal areas get dumped on.  I'm actually OK with not getting 18-20" up this way, but we'll see.  Not looking to jinx anything, just giving my personal take.

[nycsnow]

[SACRUS]

2/21 12z GGEM

 

Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

 

Snow 10:1

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/21 12z Summary

Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC

/
Snow 10:1  NYC

SREF: 1/8 / 17.1
NAM: 2.5 / 24.1
NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6
ICON: 1.4 / 13.9
RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1
GFS:  2.0 / 20.3
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.8
GGEM: 1.5 / 14.7

 

Updated with GGEM

[Prue11]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

6 to 12 is a good call for NYC

Agreed. 10-16” more south and east 

[Snowlover11]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

6 to 12 is a good call for NYC

Thanks Lonnie Quinn.

[Nibor]

CMC at 500 mb was a step closer to the GFS

[WestBabylonWeather]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

6 to 12 is a good call for NYC

This place isn’t for you. 

[psv88]

I thought the Canadian looked great 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

6 to 12 is a good call for NYC

It was but I think 12-18 is better.

[MJO812]

Just now, psv88 said:

I thought the Canadian looked great 

Yep nice shift west

[nycsnow]

Just now, psv88 said:

I thought the Canadian looked great 

It def trended better. Euro caves today or tn

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, Picard said:

Watching the models, +/- 30 miles will make a big difference up here between less than 6" or more than 12".  Personally, I'm routing for 6-12" and watching the costal areas get dumped on.  I'm actually OK with not getting 18-20" up this way, but we'll see.  Not looking to jinx anything, just giving my personal take.

there’s an equation that needs to be balanced here. Heavier snow near the coast, but tomorrow during the day away from the cement jungle you’re gonna accumulate faster. it all shakes out in the wash, but the further you are from a cement jungle in a snowstorm with marginal temps the better off you are. Once the storm gets going and the sunsets it’s not gonna matter.

 

[wxman]

At this point mostly looking at model noise.  The exact distribution of the snowfall is going to be a nowcast situation (as almost always) with areas to the east favored...but there will be outliers like the 12Z GFS showing 21" for PHL while the Canadian shows 10".  No great reason to pick one depiction over the other, both are plausible in this setup.  Storm bears resemblance to Boxing Day 2010 but with a less extreme gradient (as currently depicted in the modeling)...but even in that storm it wasn't purely east-west in the snow totals...and with all the blowing and drifting will be hard to say who gets what, exactly.  Right now I'd forecast 10" to 20" across NJ and call it a day unless something really surprises us as the day progresses.   

[BoulderWX]

Mesos tonight will help us figure out the details. Going to step away for a bit so I don’t go crazy 

[Northof78]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I thought the Canadian looked great 

It did, very nice improvement, essentially in line with GFS now

[Northof78]

1 minute ago, wxman said:

At this point mostly looking at model noise.  The exact distribution of the snowfall is going to be a nowcast situation (as almost always) with areas to the east favored...but there will be outliers like the 12Z GFS showing 21" for PHL while the Canadian shows 10".  No great reason to pick one depiction over the other, both are plausible in this setup.  Storm bears resemblance to Boxing Day 2010 but with a less extreme gradient (as currently depicted in the modeling)...but even in that storm it wasn't purely east-west in the snow totals...and with all the blowing and drifting will be hard to say who gets what, exactly.  Right now I'd forecast 10" to 20" across NJ and call it a day unless something really surprises us as the day progresses.   

Spoken like an intelligent and prudent Hillsboroughian....

[nycsnow]

Bombing out

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 minute ago, wxman said:

At this point mostly looking at model noise.  The exact distribution of the snowfall is going to be a nowcast situation (as almost always) with areas to the east favored...but there will be outliers like the 12Z GFS showing 21" for PHL while the Canadian shows 10".  No great reason to pick one depiction over the other, both are plausible in this setup.  Storm bears resemblance to Boxing Day 2010 but with a less extreme gradient (as currently depicted in the modeling)...but even in that storm it wasn't purely east-west in the snow totals...and with all the blowing and drifting will be hard to say who gets what, exactly.  Right now I'd forecast 10" to 20" across NJ and call it a day unless something really surprises us as the day progresses.   

I think a cross between this one and the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm.

[MANDA]

With the 12Z data so far this morning I am comfortable with my 10-15” forecast for my area.  Don’t plan on any changes until after I see the mesos this evening.  I think it is a good blend between the insane NAM totals and tamer RGEM.  

[Blizzardo]

And like every other monster storm... There will be subsidence outside the banding... And those areas will be considerably less snow

[MJO812]

Im tracking the storm for next week while tracking this one. Insane

 

[Jt17]

Euro still not on board eh

It hasn't run yet... And 6z was its best run yet.


.

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Euro still not on board eh

it's more of a city east storm on the Euro...can't discount it 100%.   There will be a sharp western cutoff somewhere

[Blizzardo]

I like 20-30 with lollies to 36 in areas!! 

[Northof78]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Im tracking the storm for next week while tracking this one. Insane

 

One at a time...

[nycsnow]