NsWx516 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 At what point do we start discussin the threat for Friday on the gfs lol 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 On February 20, 2026, the PNA was -1.475. The PNA is forecast to remain negative through the remainder of February. During the second half of February and afterward, most of the big I-95 Area snowstorms occur with a negative PNA on account of shortening wave lengths. A major to potentially historic blizzard is possible Sunday into Monday. With 10.0" or more snow, Winter 2025-2026 would be on track to become just the third winter on record in New York City to record two 10" or greater snowstorms, a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0° or below and 30.0" or more seasonal snowfall. Winter records go way back to 1869-1870. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, NsWx516 said: At what point do we start discussin the threat for Friday on the gfs lol When this one is over. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, NsWx516 said: At what point do we start discussin the threat for Friday on the gfs lol In a different thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro is a solid 6 to 12 Euro is still playing catch - up I think the NWS is ignoring it now - but some private METS which will remain nameless are still considering it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 06z Summary Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC SREF: 1.8 / 16.9 NAM: 2.3 / 22.5 RGEM: 1.5 / 14.7 ICON: 1.4 / 12.9 GFS: 2.3 / 22 GFS AI AIFS: 1.6 / 15.8 UKMET: 1.0 / 10.4 GEFS: 1.8 / 18.4 EURO: .09 / 10.1 EURO AI AIFS: 1.1 / 11.1 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I just need 7” more to hit 40” on the year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, NEG NAO said: Euro is still playing catch - up I think the NWS is ignoring it now Mt Holly covered its bases well here. 8-16 forecast, takes care of the Euro's lower tier and touch bases of GFS/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Everyone will be rating this an A+ winter in 48 hours 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 06z : Models Mean Total QPF (NYC): 1.49 inches Mean 10:1 Snowfall (NYC): 15.5 inches 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Start time guesstimate anyone ? 8 am ?????? and when does she get cranking is it in the afternoon or at night ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Mt Holly covered its bases well here. 8-16 forecast, takes care of the Euro's lower tier and touch bases of GFS/NAM. big difference when trying to remove 8 inches from your driveway VS. 16 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 So far this season I sit at 45.8". With this one I may hit 60" by Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 That was a big shift west by the EURO even if its less than the GFS. At this point even if they converge its a huge storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Probably lose 0.2-0.3 before best snow/dynamics and cooling takeover but still looking like a solid foot or more i95 east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, NEG NAO said: big difference when trying to remove 8 inches from your driveway VS. 16 ps the drifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Drizzle Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 @donsutherland1 Good morning, the late-"Icehater," a great poster on the old NYC Metro forum wrote that the temperature during the "Lindsey Storm" of February, 1969 hovered around 34 F and never went below freezing. Would you have temperature data for that storm for CPK or other points? FD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I bet we’re gonna have a large coverage blizzard warning by afternoon update. Don’t see why they wouldn’t upgrade today or tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I thought the NWS leans on the NBM for their forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: ps the drifts yeah with 16 inches could equal 2- 3 foot drifts which will be shoveling for a week - still have a small pile of ice to remove today from 27 days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I posted this late last night and not sure i am navigating the CIPS analog website correctly but this is what i was able to find - fwiw if anything: Individual Analogs 1. 20200306/18002. 19800207/06003. 20180307/18004. 20230314/00005. 20130325/18006. 20150127/00007. 20180313/00008. 20140326/00009. 19830116/000010. 20010305/180011. 20060212/120012. 19840329/120013. 20130306/180014. 20110127/000015. 19870126/1200 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/2025183767418040518?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 09z SREF Total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24 10:1 Snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I thought the NWS leans on the NBM for their forecast only when it makes them look good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NsWx516 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/2025183767418040518?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw I saw this before so Bernies locked in, he was playing it very conservative at the beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 12z Summary Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24 NYC / Snow 10:1 NYC SREF: 1/8 / 17.1 NAM: 2.5 / 24.1 NAM 3k: 2.2 / 21.6 ICON: 1.4 / 13.9 RGEM: 1.3 / 13.1 GFS: 2.0 / 20.3 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.8 GGEM: 1.5 / 14.7 GEFS: 1.8 / 17.8 UKMET: 1/2 / 12.9 Euro : 1.0 / 10.2 Euro AI AIFS: 1.3 / 12.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: I posted this late last night and not sure i am navigating the CIPS analog website correctly but this is what i was able to find - fwiw if anything: Individual Analogs 1. 20200306/18002. 19800207/06003. 20180307/18004. 20230314/00005. 20130325/18006. 20150127/00007. 20180313/00008. 20140326/00009. 19830116/000010. 20010305/180011. 20060212/120012. 19840329/120013. 20130306/180014. 20110127/000015. 19870126/1200 where is the January 1996 storm ? Had 0ver 30 inches here but I was in Northern Ocean County at the time and only had 20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Boxing Day still seems like one of the best analogs to me and the same model led the way on both. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Quote .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Confidence has increased to the point where winter storm and blizzard warnings have been issued across the forecast area. A major winter storm is forecast to impact the area Sunday into Monday. Model guidance has congealed in taking a deepening low off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday northeast to near the 40N...70W benchmark Monday. This track is often favorable for all snow across the region. The low undergoes explosive deepening in 12h, tracking from near the North Carolina coast Sunday afternoon to east of the Delmarva Sunday night. Most of the guidance shows pressure falls on the order of 25 to 30 mb in 12 hour. The low deepens to around 970 mb as it approaches the benchmark Monday morning. This storm, expected to be early 1000 miles across in diameter, will produce heavy precipitation and gale to storm force winds over the adjacent coastal waters. Model soundings show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 40 to 50 mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT. Even inland area will see near blizzard conditions with winds just a bit weaker. The highest winds will occur Sunday night into the first half of Monday. Liquid equivalent amounts of around an inch across far NW portions of Orange county will be near an inch, with upward of an 1.5" at the coast. There is even some guidance suggestive of amount around 2 inches at the coast. However, while there is good overall agreement in the guidance, there still have been small adjustments east and west and a consenus forecast (blend of WPC and NBM) was used. Snow ratios are expected to start of around 10:1 and then possibly get up to 12-13:1. Temperatures initially on Sunday may get into the lower and mid 30s, expect most locations to fall to around freezing if not lower as the heavy snow develops in the afternoon. So ratios right off the bat along he coast may even be lower for a short time. Snowfall amounts of 14 to 18 inches are forecast along the coast with 10 to 14 inches across the interior. NBM deterministic forecasts point to amounts of 14 to 24 inches across the area, highest along the coast. But due to some wobbling of the low track a bit, we do want to see more continuity. NBM 90th percentile has amounts of 2 to 3 ft. The 00Z LREF (EPS, GEPS, and GEFS) mean has about a foot at the coast and 7 to 8 inches across far western sections of Orange County in the Lower Hudson Valley. The EPS is contributing lower amounts with a more eastern solution. Should it come a bit more west, than the higher totals are not out of the realm possibility. Snow is forecast to develop from SW to NE on Sunday, in the morning from NYC and points north and west, and the in the afternoon for the remainder of the area. The heaviest snow and wind will be Sunday night into Monday morning. Snow will end from west to east during the afternoon hours. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Boxing Day still seems like one of the best analogs to me and the same model led the way on both. Agree but praying this one turns out different for me. I got like 7” and 15 miles east had over 20”. Could be similar lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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