wthrmn654 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 13 minutes ago, NsWx516 said: So did the Blizzard of 1888 You were alive for that? Makes you 137 years old 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseyshorewxguy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 but several forecasters are mentioning rain to start - very confusing situation and differences of opinionit's not confusing at all . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseyshorewxguy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I don't think the rain at the front end is about a close approach. It's about a marginally cold airmas coupled with light precip.thank you for an intelligent post.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 00z SREF mean Total QPF through 2/24 00z Snow 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NsWx516 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, wthrmn654 said: You were alive for that? Makes you 137 years old Weather Twitter told me so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: We'll see how things go over the next day but I like areas west of us to see the most snow. Yep. Often these like to tick east a little at the very end. I can definitely see the scenario where the death band sets up over NJ and Hudson Valley but way too early to iron out those details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Prue11 said: So you’re thinking Li isn’t jackpot zone? No I don't. Well maybe Nassau. Again we are kinda far out for this though. Nnj down to the Jersey shore, nyc and lower HV would be my guess right now but that could easily change over the next 24-36 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2/21 00z Summary Total QPF NYC / Total 10:1 Snow NYC SREF: 1.5 / 14.1 NAM: 2.3 / 22.3 ICON: 1.8 / 16.7 RGEM: 1.0 / 9.2 GFS: 1.9 / 19.1 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.6 / 16 GGEM: 1.4 / 13.5 UKMET: 1.0 / 11 GEFS: 2.1 / 20.5 Euro: 0.7 / 5.9 Euro AI AIFS: 1.1 / 10.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 20 minutes until getting NAM'd. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: 20 minutes until getting NAM'd. Let's keep our expectations in check though. Remember NAM struggles mightily beyond 36-48hrs, we're just entering its more accurate range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 45 minutes ago, Rjay said: 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T5403CG Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 No I don't. Well maybe Nassau. Again we are kinda far out for this though. Nnj down to the Jersey shore, nyc and lower HV would be my guess right now but that could easily change over the next 24-36 hours. So you believe the eventual track will be over or inside the benchmark?Never seen a track SE of the benchmark jackpot west of Long Island and eastern New England... Given the current modeling, this storm is reminding me more and more of 12/19-20 2009... Storm came off VA/NC and bombed as it moved NE... Storm skirted just SE of the benchmark... It unloaded on Long Island... through eastern New England...Obviously if the track continues to move N/W, and it does end up inside the benchmark, I can see the deformation zone moving further west into NJ...The next 24 hours are gonna tell us a lot... just glad it doesn't look like it did 24 hours ago... Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 46 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: terrible post, this could go another 100 miles west and NyC will still be snow. Why? It’s happened more often than not for the immediate coast, and temps going quite warm as the precip moves in. Usual spots will JP. NNJ, LHV etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 When will the HRRR start becoming important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 18 minutes ago, Rjay said: No I don't. Well maybe Nassau. Again we are kinda far out for this though. Nnj down to the Jersey shore, nyc and lower HV would be my guess right now but that could easily change over the next 24-36 hours. Joe cioffi believes the lower Hv or Sw CT will see the heaviest snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Mail Man said: When will the HRRR start becoming important Within 24 hours. Even better within 12 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 This does look most similar to boxing day of any storm i can remember and I believe NE NJ jackpotted in that One. Either way I think everyone in the subforum probably gets double digits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 every single model shows a back bent warm front over us in the mid levels except for the longer range rgem. i am very confident of 18+ for most of us 16 2 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Why? It’s happened more often than not for the immediate coast, and temps going quite warm as the precip moves in. Usual spots will JP. NNJ, LHV etc Theres no warmth coming with this system at any levels, temps will crash once storm intensifies. This is completely different setup than say 1/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: every single model shows a back bent warm front over us in the mid levels except for the longer range rgem. i am very confident of 18+ for most of us 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 18 minutes ago, T5403CG said: So you believe the eventual track will be over or inside the benchmark? Never seen a track SE of the benchmark jackpot west of Long Island and eastern New England... Given the current modeling, this storm is reminding me more and more of 12/19-20 2009... Storm came off VA/NC and bombed as it moved NE... Storm skirted just SE of the benchmark... It unloaded on Long Island... through eastern New England... Obviously if the track continues to move N/W, and it does end up inside the benchmark, I can see the deformation zone moving further west into NJ... The next 24 hours are gonna tell us a lot... just glad it doesn't look like it did 24 hours ago... Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk Most of our posters benchmark is different from New England's benchmark. Nyc and Nj's bm is east of AC. Also the west trend on the models hasn't stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 57 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: Highest recorded snowfall by me in Montville, NJ (Morris County, NJ) was about 27 inches in the March 2018 storm. Would love to experience that again. And a fun fact…there has never been 30 inches of snow ever officially recorded in NJ. 29.7 is the record in 1947. Do you think we will ever see 30+ inches, especially with today’s seemingly deeper strengthening storms? . It's happened several times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 On 2/19/2026 at 11:03 AM, jconsor said: This article speaks more about skill of AI models in medium range (beyond day 5), but I believe same applies in the 3-4 day range - AIFS ensemble has superior skill to EPS and other physics-based ensembles. AI-GEFS has superior skill to GEFS but isn't as skillful as AIFS ensemble. https://x.com/Brady_Wx/status/2021333729088585882 Given that GEFS and GEPS are closer than the EPS to AIFS ensemble (as well as AI-GEFS) in terms of more amplified trough initially over Ohio Valley/Great Lakes with more downstream ridging, and deeper upper low closer to the mid-Atlantic coast, I would weight them more than EPS in this setup. All models shifted in that direction (when compared to yesterday's 0z run) after ingesting a new batch of upper air data from recon. It appears to me that the EPS under-amplification bias may be at play here and it is most likely playing catch-up here, like the AI summary that Sacrus posted intimated happens sometimes in NE US winter storms. Excellent article. Thanks very much for posting. The AIFS single was really amplified with this system since later last weekend. I like that it corrects the OP Euro and ensembles suppression tendency we have often seen since the Euro upgrade around 2015 with coastal storms along the East Coast. Open Snow also put out the best seasonal long range winter forecast that I have seen for this winter back in November. Although the write-up didn’t mention it, wonder if they have an experimental in house AI seasonal forecast tool which they didn’t want to mention yet? https://opensnow.com/news/post/november-update-2025-2026-winter-forecast-preview Skilful global seasonal predictions from a machine learning weather model trained on reanalysis data https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01198-3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T5403CG Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Most of our posters benchmark is different from New England's benchmark. Nyc and Nj's bm is east of AC. Also the west trend on the models hasn't stopped. Got ya... but every model is tracking this SE of 40/70... that is not conducive to NYC and west having the best dynamics... it screams Long Island and Eastern New England...Just trying to understand where the thought process is that the track will be inside 40/70 (That's where Boxer Day storm tracked)?Need some education so I can see what I am missing here... Thanks...Sent from my motorola edge 2024 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxingdayblizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: every single model shows a back bent warm front over us in the mid levels except for the longer range rgem. i am very confident of 18+ for most of us these comments don't come often from forky! that's when you know it's exciting... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Most of our posters benchmark is different from New England's benchmark. Nyc and Nj's bm is east of AC. Also the west trend on the models hasn't stopped. Isnt our benchmark 40/70? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mail Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, nycsnow said: That's nuts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boxingdayblizzard Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 00Z NAM initializing... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: Isnt our benchmark 40/70? depends on how the low gets there 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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