WXNewton Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Following from the southeast forum. True weather weenie here pulling for you guys! Heck I've been losing sleep on this one just as much as I would if NC was in the bullseye! GFS might bring this one home, sure looks like this one will be a fun one to ride out. I hope one day to catch a big Nor'Easter. I'll definitely stay tune to see some observations! Pumped up from a 650 miles away!! I will say the models struggled handing the phase and the ULL for our NC snowstorm a few weeks ago, it was about 36 hrs out before they had a good handle on it. RAP and HRRR was dead on under 12-16 hrs out. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: and you can take a stroll down memory lane if you go back to the beginning of this forum here - all documented I have several times 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Fair point. The euro never showed anything from this until yesterday evening. That's actually crazy. does the Euro receive the same data as the GFS ? Or do they (Euro) gather their own data ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 On 2/19/2026 at 5:10 PM, WestBabylonWeather said: Local news 12 met leaning towards gfs solution. Bill Korbel for the win 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Good point. Imagine the panic tomorrow if warnings go up for 12-18"+ They will slowly increase the totals. I can see 6-12 in the morning forecasts, but by tomorrow night, you might see 12 -18. Some are already saying 12+ on the Jersey shore... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 Just now, NEG NAO said: does the Euro receive the same data as the GFS ? Or do they gather their own data ? Euro has a superior initialization scheme but they receive the same data as far as I know. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: wow - I am only getting 4 - 8 inches now ! It seems that whomever made the map lost sight of the bigger picture in his/her obsession with the minor IVT. The map will be verified for major cities in each of the zones. I've listed them below and also included my initial estimates for comparison. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East of the Parkway Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 8 minutes ago, nycsnow said: 980 would be cat 1 territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 And yea Channel 4 was talking the big B word for you folks out on Eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman92 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Been saying it for 2 days now. It will trend another 50 - 100 miles NW tonight then tomorrow once the in range NAM shows the same it will be a wrap. Whoever is saying only about 6 to 8 inches of snow needs to update their forecast within 12 hours. Should be an easy swath of 12-18 inches NW of where it currently shows it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: Probably did i not say this was going to keep tucking!? I knew it! i think the tucking stops where the SREF is depicting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It seems that whomever made the map lost sight of the bigger picture in his/her obsession with the minor IVT. The map will be verified for major cities in each of the zones. I've listed them below and also included my initial estimates for comparison. Thats a Steve D . map - we will see at verification time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: did i not say this was going to keep tucking!? I knew it! i think the tucking stops where the SREF is depicting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Blizzardo said: And yea Channel 4 was talking the big B word for you folks out on Eastern LI. blizzard for NYC for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Bill Korbel for the win Great Met. Conservative and level headed - no hype. Good guy all around. Know him from his days at WOR radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: did i not say this was going to keep tucking!? I knew it! i think the tucking stops where the SREF is depicting Well when you keep weening out over every storm eventually you'll be right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: blizzard for NYC for sure! It's really difficult to get the sustained winds for the 3 hours but we will find out! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 14 minutes ago, [email protected] said: This is 2010 Boxing Day redux! That would be a disappointment out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Starting to get concerned about the storm being too “tucked” for the immediate coast. We all know that may make at least a portion of the storm wet, not white 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, Jt17 said: There was more support than just American models was my point. But anyway, checkout EuroAI! . Yeah, the Euro AI single meets in the middle between the GFS and other guidance. Has the 2” liquid line from MTP to Ocean county NJ. If that verified exactly, then we could see one primary band further west from Monmouth out into Suffolk. So with the great lifting someone could potentially go 18”+. Would like to see the other guidance come on board by 12z tomorrow to have confidence that some areas could reach those totals. But we don’t have to know for sure until the 12z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Rmine1 said: Starting to get concerned about the storm being too “tucked” for the immediate coast. We all know that may make at least a portion of the storm wet, not white Uh where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Blizzardo said: It's really difficult to get the sustained winds for the 3 hours but we will find out! Haha Maybe at JFK or LAG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Rmine1 said: Starting to get concerned about the storm being too “tucked” for the immediate coast. We all know that may make at least a portion of the storm wet, not white Um no lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Rmine1 said: Starting to get concerned about the storm being too “tucked” for the immediate coast. We all know that may make at least a portion of the storm wet, not white supposed to be rain during the day on sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Rmine1 said: Starting to get concerned about the storm being too “tucked” for the immediate coast. We all know that may make at least a portion of the storm wet, not white Water temps are low this time of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, weathermedic said: Maybe at JFK or LAG Yea, out there would be the best shot at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NsWx516 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 This definitely has Boxing Day vibes to it. Everyone was ready to throw in the towel and the GFS was on its own island. This is pretty much the inverse 2015 storm. Side note, I went and filled up my tank just before and the gas station was empty, I might head to the store to get the milks and breads. I dont think mass panic has set in yet lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Rmine1 said: Starting to get concerned about the storm being too “tucked” for the immediate coast. We all know that may make at least a portion of the storm wet, not white terrible post, this could go another 100 miles west and NyC will still be snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: supposed to be rain during the day on sunday no rain at all maybe south jersey to begin, it'll snow from the start and wet bulb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: supposed to be rain during the day on sunday then as soon as the sun goes down the fun begins - and this could be more difficult to remove then the last storm because it will mainly fall overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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