The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Said it a million times but people hear what they want to hear.  We've rarely if ever had a SECS/MECS w/o Euro being on board at this time range.

You were right.  Even if the Euro showed something but it hasn't showed anything in days.

Modeling is still awful these days. How do you have all of them showing a big snowstorm except one model and then all lose it.

[MJO812]

This will most likely be the 2nd big snowstorm we would miss out this winter due to the pacific. 

[kat5hurricane]

3 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

I was a forecaster back in 2014 when the Euro completely crapped it’s pants on a coastal low within 24 hours

granted, that was a fundamental issue with the input of the model since the SST’s were egregiously incorrect off the coast of the Carolinas, IIRC, but it’s not infallible

I Left the weather game a long time ago, and have forgotten a good bit over time since I’ve focused on my new career, but I can tell you models don’t make the weather

Never said that the Euro was infallible and in fact I emphasized that point in my posts but the odds are when the highest scoring model doesn't buy a solution for many cycles odds are in its favor and it's just my own instinct from being a weather junkie for decades that the Euro is more often a leader than the GFS. I'd bet anything that we see the GFS start to cave starting now and if not then likely by 0z. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You were right.  Even if the Euro showed something but it hasn't showed anything in days.

Modeling is still awful these days. How do you have all of them showing a big snowstorm except one model and then all lose it.

Other than the gfs most of the models jumped off the big solutions days ago

[nycsnow]

Gfs probably going to be a bigger hit already more amped at 500

[wthrmn654]

10 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Overall the EC is worse than 18Z but better than 12Z

The CMC para is a tick SE of the OP, but improved a lot from its 12Z run. 

Can you or other pros please do model run analysis from now on, you are way better then those saying it's west,  it's east,  huge hit, not a hit, etc.  Confusion

[Wxbear25]

3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Never said that the Euro was infallible and in fact I emphasized that point in my posts but the odds are when the highest scoring model doesn't buy a solution for many cycles odds are in its favor and it's just my own instinct from being a weather junkie for decades that the Euro is more often a leader than the GFS. I'd bet anything that we see the GFS start to cave starting now and if not then likely by 0z. 

I don’t disagree with you. I think the GFS’s solution is wildly over-optimistic, but I also think the Euro’s depiction is underdoing it. In reality, I think it falls somewhere inbetween

What I definitely do not think is that the threat fora decent, even good, snowfall is completely gone like some would have you believe

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS is going to hold serve!

[WestBabylonWeather]

I’m very open to a GFS win and be wrong 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Gfs probably going to be a bigger hit already more amped at 500

Looks better

[mattinpa]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Looks better

I’d just like to see ANYTHING look like that today. I would love a huge storm to end this winter but have to wonder if GFS is just doubling down on nonsense.

[WeatherGeek2025]

it's going to tuck 

[mob1]

Holy crap does the GFS destroy parts of the Mid Atlantic. It's so insanely amped and tucked. I officially give up.

[Neblizzard]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it's going to tuck 

Yup and slam SNJ

[bncho]

what the FUCK is the GFS

[winterwarlock]

the gfs is comical with its 2 day storm and 3 ft Md/va

[mob1]

So we're either getting this or this

[jm1220]

It occludes and stacks before it really gets up here lol. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, bncho said:

what the FUCK is the GFS

Its a sucky weather model but that's not important right now

[WeatherGeek2025]

it's going to ride up eventually and tuck. Look out westchester and putnam that'll be the bullseye in my opinion! Euro will come in eventually by the time the storm starts because it's the worst model

[mob1]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It occludes and stacks before it really gets up here lol. 

Still plenty good for us, let's share the goods with our southern brethren. 

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its a sucky weather model but that's not important right now

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Its a sucky weather model but that's not important right now

I’m in that central Jersey bullseye and I can assure you as the sun will rise tomorrow this outcome will not happen 

[Blizzardo]

Gotta say.... Ain't seen a wrapped up sub 980L like that on the maps in a long time... Long long time... Lol Mother of God....

[CentralNJSnowman]

Feels like with most storms after the fact, there tends to be a lot of confusion (and maybe a bit of revisionist history) about which model 'got things right'.  That's probably due in part to all the models waffling back and forth at different time ranges.  With this storm, there should be absolutely no question...if ends up being a non-event, the Euro nailed it.  If it ends up being a major snowstorm for our area, the GFS nailed it.  Neither of them have really varied much at all (while the others have all moved somewhat from run to run).

[mikem81]

AI also much improved and trending NW run to run since yesterday

[winterwarlock]

[nycsnow]

[wthrmn654]

Average the left and right tracks and it will probably be the overall outcome

[jconsor]

2 hours ago, Nibor said:

Last night when the AI euro shifted west I thought it was a good sign that the other western guidance wasn't complete bs. Still, it would add confidence if the Euro Op showed something closer to the GFS or the CMC.

If I'm not mistaken the AI euro is better past 5 days but they get fairly close in scoring within 5. @donsutherland1 probably has better data on that.

This article speaks more about skill of AI models in medium range (beyond day 5), but I believe same applies in the 3-4 day range - AIFS ensemble has superior skill to EPS and other physics-based ensembles.  AI-GEFS has superior skill to GEFS but isn't as skillful as AIFS ensemble.

https://x.com/Brady_Wx/status/2021333729088585882

Given that GEFS and GEPS are closer than the EPS to AIFS ensemble (as well as AI-GEFS) in terms of more amplified trough initially over Ohio Valley/Great Lakes with more downstream ridging, and deeper upper low closer to the mid-Atlantic coast, I would weight them more than EPS in this setup. All models shifted in that direction (when compared to yesterday's 0z run) after ingesting a new batch of upper air data from recon.

It appears to me that the EPS under-amplification bias may be at play here and it is most likely playing catch-up here, like the AI summary that Sacrus posted intimated happens sometimes in NE US winter storms.