Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[WxUSAF]

AIGFS probably all snow for metro areas Monday?

[Weather Will]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Next week on the Gfs in mby is sufficient for me to forget 2 days ago and end the winter looking forward to next year's Niño. 

It is close to being good for many of us.  Someone should start a thread Th. If it is still there. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Verbatim would be an impactful mixed precip event north of DC with temps in the 20s.

Well, I  should have mentioned that when I posted I had little doubt that it would get shoved south as we approached it.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

AIGFS probably all snow for metro areas Monday?

I have never had much interest in the thing later this week.  I just don't see the win there...the flow is compressed and deamplifying with not enough ambient cold ahead of the wave...so in order to get enough precip we need a wave to amplify more to our west...but that would also mean warmer...it would take such a perfect thread the needle...  

But this wave next week I like.  As much as I can like something at that range in a flawed but not horrible pattern anyways.  Across most guidance it's been a little north but at day 5+ that's actually been where every eventual snow event was at that range...trend has been south from a week out...then back north some at the very end.  The pattern looks meh on the means but if you dig in the TPV is displaced into a location that's worked late in the season before.  It has some similarities to some of our late Feb early March snows of the past.  

[bncho]

CMC has a nice little snow to rain event, drops 3-8" for most

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

AIGFS probably all snow for metro areas Monday?

it's a two wave system, wave 1 is definitely all snow for DC.  Wave 2 night end as some mixed precip DC south but overall 90% of the precip is snow in DC on the AIGFS imo 

[Weather Will]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Verbatim would be an impactful mixed precip event north of DC with temps in the 20s.

Like the cold air forecasted for Monday afternoon.

[bncho]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Like the cold air forecasted for Monday afternoon.

That would be quite a cold March day. 

[Interstate]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

It is close to being good for many of us.  Someone should start a thread Th. If it is still there. 

I think we should go back to starting threats 3 days MAX before a storm.

[adelphi_sky]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

it's a two wave system, wave 1 is definitely all snow for DC.  Wave 2 night end as some mixed precip DC south but overall 90% of the precip is snow in DC on the AIGFS imo 

Post mix type? Smells like snowcrete like last time. Good thing is, no PV arctic freeze for two weeks. 

[paulythegun]

1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said:

Post mix type? Smells like snowcrete like last time. Good thing is, no PV arctic freeze for two weeks. 

That was like 1.5"+ QPF in the form of sleet on top of 4-8" of snow with temps in the teens followed by record cold. Once in a generation thing. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Post mix type? Smells like snowcrete like last time. Good thing is, no PV arctic freeze for two weeks. 

can't tell that.  I can see the AIGFS MSLP and surface and 850 temps.  But we know there is almost always a layer slightly warmer than 850 so towards the end of the second wave the 850's get close enough that there is probably a warm layer somewhere and DC mixes but 90% of the precip is over by then, it's not like Jan 25.  

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

That was like 1.5"+ QPF in the form of sleet on top of 4-8" of snow with temps in the teens followed by record cold. Once in a generation thing. 

I’m glad it’s unusual lol. Hard pass on another one any time soon. I want a 4-6”+ snowstorm that doesn’t require monitoring the correlation coefficient radar.

[Weather Will]

Canadian has the early next week event and is colder.

[Miss Pixee]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Imo we just had a winter as good as 2010. Their wasn't much winter that winter. Just big snows that melted within a week or so. Those were fun storms but I had more fun this winter. 

Not sure where you're located but none of the snow in my area was gone like that...literally two weeks and still had lots of cover in shade. Shopping store parking lots had 30 foot piles that sat around until late March, pretty nasty looking by then. Had some dumb neighbors who stranded their cars in bus lanes and got towed.

Winter isn't snow, btw...its the most misrepresented season. The so called shortest day is the beginning of winter not the end. Then people want spring whenever they don't get the snow they want. Then when spring hits almost nobody talks about it.

Plus early spring is bugs and mud, nothing growing yet. Stinky too, lol. April is when the growing season hits.

[Nomz]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I have never had much interest in the thing later this week.  I just don't see the win there...the flow is compressed and deamplifying with not enough ambient cold ahead of the wave...so in order to get enough precip we need a wave to amplify more to our west...but that would also mean warmer...it would take such a perfect thread the needle...  

But this wave next week I like.  As much as I can like something at that range in a flawed but not horrible pattern anyways.  Across most guidance it's been a little north but at day 5+ that's actually been where every eventual snow event was at that range...trend has been south from a week out...then back north some at the very end.  The pattern looks meh on the means but if you dig in the TPV is displaced into a location that's worked late in the season before.  It has some similarities to some of our late Feb early March snows of the past.  

Agreed on this week. Both are just weak clippers (i.e. BOS might get 1-2 from each) that usually pass way north, or when they come south, just get destroyed by the mountains. Never really had a chance.

[mitchnick]

This why next week is likely the end of the line. Lol

[psuhoffman]

Not sure this is the right thread but...  something to keep in mind for future miller b storms, almost every single one going back to the 80s, tends to trend west up until about 24-36 hours out, and then shifts east and pulls the rug out at the last minute to some extent.  Some didn't do it to us...like Jan 2015 which did that rug pull to NYC, or Feb 89 that rug pulled me in NJ, but they all do it.  Some recent examples for our area are Dec 2000, Boxing day, March 8, 2018, Feb 1 2021, and this week.  Where around 24-48 hours out things were trending west and we got excited and then at the very end reality set in and the storm ended up just a little northeast.  That is the MO.  That happens ALWAYS every single time.  Expect it.  It just is how the models are with these miller b storms.  I don't know why.  I have just observed they tend to be under amplified and too far east around days 4-7 then over correct and get us excited around day 2-3 and then shift back at the last minute and everything shifts 50-75 miles east the final 24 hours.  

That doesn't mean we can't EVERY get a lot of snow from a miller B, but it's super rare and we want it amplifying well west not relying on getting the very back edge of the developing CCB zone because that will almost always end up further east than guidance shows 2-3 days out.  

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This why next week is likely the end of the line. Lol

perfect timing for my spring skiing up in New England

A month of 50 degree skiing in suncreen, T shirts and wacky outfits 

[snowfan]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This why next week is likely the end of the line. Lol

End of cold pattern storm. We've seen it many times.

[Kay]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not sure this is the right thread but...  something to keep in mind for future miller b storms, almost every single one going back to the 80s, tends to trend west up until about 24-36 hours out, and then shifts east and pulls the rug out at the last minute to some extent.  Some didn't do it to us...like Jan 2015 which did that rug pull to NYC, or Feb 89 that rug pulled me in NJ, but they all do it.  Some recent examples for our area are Dec 2000, Boxing day, March 8, 2018, Feb 1 2021, and this week.  Where around 24-48 hours out things were trending west and we got excited and then at the very end reality set in and the storm ended up just a little northeast.  That is the MO.  That happens ALWAYS every single time.  Expect it.  It just is how the models are with these miller b storms.  I don't know why.  I have just observed they tend to be under amplified and too far east around days 4-7 then over correct and get us excited around day 2-3 and then shift back at the last minute and everything shifts 50-75 miles east the final 24 hours.  

That doesn't mean we can't EVERY get a lot of snow from a miller B, but it's super rare and we want it amplifying well west not relying on getting the very back edge of the developing CCB zone because that will almost always end up further east than guidance shows 2-3 days out.  

"Current satellite imagery, ship buoys, and surface observations near the East Coast are showing that the main surface low is about 150 miles ESE of Ocean City, MD and 150 miles ENE of Virginia Beach, VA. It is about 50 miles further to the east-northeast and about 6 hours faster than model guidance suggested earlier."   LWX early Sunday evening

[BlizzardNole]

29 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I’m glad it’s unusual lol. Hard pass on another one any time soon. I want a 4-6”+ snowstorm that doesn’t require monitoring the correlation coefficient radar.

Agreed.  If that Jan. 25 thing was half the QPF but all snow, it would have been 10 times better IMO

[bncho]

Euro AI keeps it south

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro AI keeps it south

because its a weak POS wave...who cares if we miss 2" of snow!  Had the wave been more amplified it would have hit us.  If it is that weak I don't even care.  

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

This might be because you were chasing the storms this winter that missed us lol. 2009/10 is the gold standard for epic stretches imo. As far as wall to wall winters, 2013-15 were top shelf. Too many missed opps so far this winter for me to grade it any higher than a B…and imby it’s probably a B-. The frozen lakes were the big show. 2022 was better here.

I knew this would be controversial lol. Don't get me wrong. That was a legendary winter. I just had more actual fun this winter. Being free of a job during winter definitely added points. I'm a fan of winter. I love cold, frozen lakes, gray cold days, snowcover that doesn't melt. The fact I chased probably added points too. I've experienced 135" of snow and hiked over 100 miles on snowpack/snowcreate. I just REALLY enjoyed the glacier and arctic flow from the nw. I had so many memorable experiences from that. 

Walking through wetlands on a path of ice (frozen creek) that was sparking like diamonds through the cat tails while surrounded by ridges covered in glistening icepack was surreal and magical. 

 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

so what you're saying is 09-10 had a perfect pattern paired in tandem with some incredible luck, that's why it was so extremely rare?

You didn't have a blast with all that snow?

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

perfect timing for my spring skiing up in New England

A month of 50 degree skiing in suncreen, T shirts and wacky outfits 

After Sunday, I  was ready for it with a disgusted attitude.  But after seeing the Gfs and Canadian, I'd love to get 1 more, then let it cook. Sun and 70'ish sounds pretty good right now.

[87storms]

15 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I knew this would be controversial lol. Don't get me wrong. That was a legendary winter. I just had more actual fun this winter. Being free of a job during winter definitely added points. I'm a fan of winter. I love cold, frozen lakes, gray cold days, snowcover that doesn't melt. The fact I chased probably added points too. I've experienced 135" of snow and hiked over 100 miles on snowpack/snowcreate. I just REALLY enjoyed the glacier and arctic flow from the nw. I had so many memorable experiences from that. 

Walking through wetlands on a path of ice (frozen creek) that was sparking like diamonds through the cat tails while surrounded by ridges covered in glistening icepack was surreal and magical. 

 

I believe it. It’s definitely a subjective, imby sport. Some storms hit me different than others. I might need to get a dog to drag my ass out into the cold more often lol. This winter hasn’t clicked for me because it’s just not what I’ve been craving. I wanted a fresh powder snowstorm to go hiking in, not crunchy stuff (the shoes you recommended seem cool, though) and with all the cold I didn’t get that, which is kinda lame. I know it’s all about making the most of what you can’t control, but that’s what I wanted lol. Winter isn’t done yet, so we’ll see. Otherwise, I have been getting out to shoot hoops and bike at times even in the cold (aside from the Siberia pattern we had for a few weeks).

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS 1pm Monday

[wxman]

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not sure this is the right thread but...  something to keep in mind for future miller b storms, almost every single one going back to the 80s, tends to trend west up until about 24-36 hours out, and then shifts east and pulls the rug out at the last minute to some extent.  Some didn't do it to us...like Jan 2015 which did that rug pull to NYC, or Feb 89 that rug pulled me in NJ, but they all do it.  Some recent examples for our area are Dec 2000, Boxing day, March 8, 2018, Feb 1 2021, and this week.  Where around 24-48 hours out things were trending west and we got excited and then at the very end reality set in and the storm ended up just a little northeast.  That is the MO.  That happens ALWAYS every single time.  Expect it.  It just is how the models are with these miller b storms.  I don't know why.  I have just observed they tend to be under amplified and too far east around days 4-7 then over correct and get us excited around day 2-3 and then shift back at the last minute and everything shifts 50-75 miles east the final 24 hours.  

That doesn't mean we can't EVERY get a lot of snow from a miller B, but it's super rare and we want it amplifying well west not relying on getting the very back edge of the developing CCB zone because that will almost always end up further east than guidance shows 2-3 days out.  

You would think that this is the exact type of thing the the AI models would address?  At least where I am the euro AI never really loved the blizzard and while I'm happy with my 16.3" it was not the 2 feet shown on many non-AI models.  In some respects outside the immediate coast up through NYC-BOS the euro AI was closer to reality.