Presidents' day Snow potential

[Nibor]

 

[EastonSN+]

Hoping CPK can record a couple of inches. I am personally pulling for CPK to reach average would be a shame not to with all the cold (conscious we are ina dry spell).

[jm1220]

12z is a meh-vent. We need more significant trends north at this point. Maybe better for the I-195 to Philly corridor. 

[NEG NAO]

starting at 12Z today its better to prioritize the mesoscale models - the various NAMS, HRRR -etc. etc. IMO - of course the GFS is going to start playing games going south then north does it all the time

[MJO812]

Euro slightly south. 1-3 for nyc with more in CNJ.

[Nibor]

AI Euro bumped qpf a little bit from 6z. Not as robust as 0z.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah but closer to an inch then 2 to 4

I think 1 to 3 is a good call for our area, but obviously still some uncertainty. I want to see the HRRR jump aboard by the 0z run tonight. 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro slightly south. 1-3 for nyc with more in CNJ.

stick with the Mesoscale models 36 - 48 hours out GFS and Euro jumps 50 - 75 miles one way or the other drive us nuts

[coastalplainsnowman]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

12z is a meh-vent. We need more significant trends north at this point. Maybe better for the I-195 to Philly corridor. 

'meh-vent' is a great term that I wish I came up with.

[donsutherland1]

The 12z HREF:

Deducting one category would still produce a 1"-2" snowfall for the New York City area and its nearby suburbs and a coating to an inch across most of Westchester and Rockland Counties. That is largely in line with the overall model guidance. I suspect that there will be an area with 2"-4" snowfalls in central New Jersey. The 12z NAM appears to be a high outlier overall. 

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

stick with the Mesoscale models 36 - 48 hours out GFS and Euro jumps 50 - 75 miles one way or the other drive us nuts

The nam being the furthest north is always a red flag

[Nibor]

A minor difference in the northern stream is all it takes for more robust precip to make it's way into our subforum. Gotta watch for more phasing like the 0z AI euro if we want to see more qpf. 6z and 12z took small steps away from that.

[MJO812]

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

this makes the most sense!

[TJW014]

Don't move anything!

Sincerely, C/S NJ

[TJW014]

Should the trends over the last 24 hours pan out tomorrow night, it teaches everyone a few lessons 

1. Models suck, and they've been getting worse, for a number of reasons. 

2. Some mets/weenies are hard-asses (look at Twitter).

3. Just because an ensemble, OP, or meso model solution is IMPROBABLE, doesn't mean it's IMPOSSIBLE.