E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion

[The Iceman]

1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said:

So SEPA can anticipate at least some wicked thunderstorms right?

Ehhh overnight runs shifted the threat more towards Lehigh valley and Lancaster for our area. Some of the meso’s now are bringing a lot of crapvection throughout the day and the QLCS breaks up and weakens as it approaches SE PA with zero instability. Mid Atlantic/DC area looks primed for a tornado outbreak though. It’s going to come down if the QLCS line can hold together or not for us. That change and slightly later timing though has made this less exciting than yesterday for se pa imo

[The Iceman]

See SEPA is totally screwed severe wise if the HRRR is right, this crap at 18z tomorrow basically ruins the entire threat, dc into central pa though look under the gun 

 

[ChescoWx]

Today should be the calm before the storm. We see temperatures close to normal today in the lower 50's before rain arrives this evening. We have a chance to actually move to above normal precipitation for the year with between 1" to 1.75" of rain possible across the area. There will be a severe weather threat tomorrow especially with a strong cold frontal passage tomorrow evening. We could see temperatures fall by over 25 degrees over just a couple hours after highs well into 60's. Rain will possibly mix with or change to some brief snow before ending by Tuesday morning. We will see well below normal temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday before we return to slightly below normal temperatures for the rest of the work week.

[LVblizzard]

A lot of the mesos fail to advance the most favorable severe parameters past Berks/Lebanon counties tomorrow. This doesn’t diminish the wind threat much but the chance for supercells could be confined to central PA.

[Mikeymac5306]

I could be wrong but if memory serves me right with these severe storms in March we (Philly forum) wind up with a more wind driven event than severe lighting and tornados and such.  West of us could be an issue but the daytime heating is gone, and we get the leftovers especially east of 95. 

[enpawx_observer]

Going to be interesting to see the evolution of this SPC outlook. HRRR and NAM both seem like the cool off a good bit as soon as the line enters Eastern Berks, Western Montco/Chesco. NAM also has been hinting at a later arrival time for the Philly burbs which might tamp down the storms a bit.

[LVLion77]

Perhaps I am wrong, but based on experience I tend to be highly skeptical of these forecasts when there is an easterly flow off the very cold Atlantic ocean. That is a stable air flow in March. The forecasts stubbornly have rain tonight. It likely will not happen until the flow is southerly (later in the am.) Hopefully the action heats in the afternoon, but I have a hard time believing we have anything beyond mist until then.

[Albedoman]

37 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

Perhaps I am wrong, but based on experience I tend to be highly skeptical of these forecasts when there is an easterly flow off the very cold Atlantic ocean. That is a stable air flow in March. The forecasts stubbornly have rain tonight. It likely will not happen until the flow is southerly (later in the am.) Hopefully the action heats in the afternoon, but I have a hard time believing we have anything beyond mist until then.

Yes I agree,  the clody maritime SE fetch is going to destroy the instability factor east of the Blue Mts. No sunshine = no severe weather. The race is on if the sun comes out before the storms hit our area.  I see a duration of light to moderate rain until late in the afternoon as the best bet.  Rumbles of thunder and heavier downpours tomorrow evening with squallywinds at frontal passage . Anyone west of York/Lancaster, watchout.  Tornado watches west of Berks county a good bet

[LVLion77]

Yes I agree,  the clody maritime SE fetch is going to destroy the instability factor east of the Blue Mts. No sunshine = no severe weather. The race is on if the sun comes out before the storms hit our area.  I see a duration of light to moderate rain until late in the afternoon as the best bet.  Rumbles of thunder and heavier downpours tomorrow evening with squallywinds at frontal passage . Anyone west of York/Lancaster, watchout.  Tornado watches west of Berks county a good bet

I wish the flow would turn more sw earlier in the day to remove the maritime layer. Until then drizzle or light showers at best. Hope I am wrong and look like a fool.