2026-2027 Super El Nino

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Super, east-based El Niño (strongest in history) along with a +QBO and we have the usual weenie accounts on social media hyping a very cold winter 

@forkyfork

It is the opposite of end of the spectrum from half all the clowns you post 24/7 as if you work for them

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't know how true that is but I don't believe it's going to be a wall to wall torch with very low snows. I think this winter will be highly variable and the back half will generate at least 1 major snowstorm for the east. 

Here's your 4 analogs 72-73,82-83,97-98 and 15-16..all had above normal temps..72-73 and 97-98 was virtually a shutout..82-83 and 15-16 had a historic blizzard. That's a good rundown of what you might expect.

[roardog]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's why Chuck's formula is negative.

I thought I read somewhere once upon a time that a +AMO is more conducive to a -NAO. Although that doesn’t make a lot of sense since the last -AMO had a lot of -NAO periods in it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't know how true that is but I don't believe it's going to be a wall to wall torch with very low snows. I think this winter will be highly variable and the back half will generate at least 1 major snowstorm for the east. 

Yea, that's there I'm at.

[GaWx]

Arctic ice area currently isn’t doing bad at all vs the avg for 2013-24, perhaps helped by the relatively cold 80N+:

[George001]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Super, east-based El Niño (strongest in history) along with a +QBO and we have the usual weenie accounts on social media hyping a very cold winter 

@forkyfork

Imo the following winter is the one to watch for northern areas, not this upcoming one. I don’t see the roaring STJ dying off quickly especially if the El Niño lingers into the spring before collapsing into La Niña. When you combine the lingering STJ with a La Niña, big things can happen for northern areas. When it comes to sustained cold in an El Niño this powerful, I need to see it to believe it. Historical precedence for these super ninos is a warm east. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Imo the following winter is the one to watch for northern areas, not this upcoming one. I don’t see the roaring STJ dying off quickly especially if the El Niño lingers into the spring before collapsing into La Niña. When you combine the lingering STJ with a La Niña, big things can happen for northern areas. When it comes to sustained cold in an El Niño this powerful, I need to see it to believe it. Historical precedence for these super ninos is a warm east. 

I can even see the el nino being so strong that it carries over into a 2nd year, but ending in fall 2027. This will give a head start to developing la nina, which peaks very strong in 2028-29, kind of like 1988-89. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but boy, will it be very strong. 

[LakePaste25]

N Pac finally waking up to El Niño? This is what you’d expect in the warm season (weak Aleutian Low that slowly deepens). 

 

[snowman19]

N Pac finally waking up to El Niño? This is what you’d expect in the warm season (weak Aleutian Low that slowly deepens). 
 

Classic El Niño forcing is taking over the Northern Hemisphere.



++GLAAM

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I wouldn't call a little -0.25 area on a 324hr map "El Nino taking over the Hemisphere". 

 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, roardog said:

I thought I read somewhere once upon a time that a +AMO is more conducive to a -NAO. Although that doesn’t make a lot of sense since the last -AMO had a lot of -NAO periods in it.

The entire decade of the 1980’s was in the last -AMO cycle. It went from the tail end of the 1970’s to the mid-1990’s. The current +AMO cycle took over in 1995

[LakePaste25]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I wouldn't call a little -0.25 area on a 324hr map "El Nino taking over the Hemisphere". 

 

I think he’s referring to the GLAAM. Nonetheless, I’m sure I’ll wake up to another 10 posts here tomorrow about how it’s 5 degrees in longitude off from some height anomaly map from a century ago so it’s not el niño. 

[EasternLI]

11 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

N Pac finally waking up to El Niño? This is what you’d expect in the warm season (weak Aleutian Low that slowly deepens). 

 

 

Yeah noticed that too, near mid August is the target date to me for maybe something like that to start to show up. AI-ENS on board too and has been. Didn't really look like the standard EPS was as interested as that yesterday. Maybe that idea is starting to gain a little traction. 

 

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I can even see the el nino being so strong that it carries over into a 2nd year, but ending in fall 2027. This will give a head start to developing la nina, which peaks very strong in 2028-29, kind of like 1988-89. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but boy, will it be very strong. 

Do you mean El Niño possibly carrying over like 1957-8/1958-9? That’s the closest I could find followed perhaps by 1940-1/1941-2.

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

Yeah noticed that too, near mid August is the target date to me for maybe something like that to start to show up. AI-ENS on board too and has been. Didn't really look like the standard EPS was as interested as that yesterday. Maybe that idea is starting to gain a little traction. 

 

Part of this is because these ensembles are not very good at spotting troughs in the summer. They tend to over smooth. I think the N Pac will begin to organize by late August/early September. 

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

Part of this is because these ensembles are not very good at spotting troughs in the summer. They tend to over smooth. I think the N Pac will begin to organize by late August/early September. 

Oh absolutely. And feel the same way about the Pacific timing, I agree.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

27 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Nonetheless, I’m sure I’ll wake up to another 10 posts here tomorrow about how it’s 5 degrees in longitude off from some height anomaly map from a century ago so it’s not el niño. 

Not sure what you're referring to here. Bluewave just made a good post, showing not a 5 degree difference in the July map, but 180 degrees, opposite. Even if we correlate with cooler conditions for a short time, I don't know that it will sustain. LR CPC outlooks are warm. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

Part of this is because these ensembles are not very good at spotting troughs in the summer. They tend to over smooth. I think the N Pac will begin to organize by late August/early September. 

If some people are actually arguing that the extratropics in the Northern Hemisphere are going to somehow magically stay in a La Niña state with a raging super El Niño in place this fall and winter then I have no words. I think (hope), that’s not what some are forecasting, since it would completely defy the laws of physics and reality

[roardog]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If some people are actually arguing that the extratropics in the Northern Hemisphere are going to somehow magically stay in a La Niña state with a raging super El Niño in place this fall and winter then I have no words. I think (hope), that’s not what some are forecasting, since it would completely defy the laws of physics and reality

I think some people are just skeptical because the PDO is so outrageously negative for what is already a super Nino. I know it's still summer but this persistent very -PDO almost defies those same laws of physics and reality you talk about.

[TheDreamTraveler]

8 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

Here's your 4 analogs 72-73,82-83,97-98 and 15-16..all had above normal temps..72-73 and 97-98 was virtually a shutout..82-83 and 15-16 had a historic blizzard. That's a good rundown of what you might expect.

The 2015-2016 winter was absurdly unremarkable except for that monster blizzard. I almost got my entire seasons worth of snow just from that one storm alone. Otherwise it barely snowed at all.

[so_whats_happening]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Arctic ice area currently isn’t doing bad at all vs the avg for 2013-24, perhaps helped by the relatively cold 80N+:

Truly a great retention year all things considered. Low starting point was unfortunately the worst thing to happen. I do however worry as we go into spring/summer of next year after the heat release from this ENSO event unfolds but will have to wait and see how things evolve.

[so_whats_happening]

I truly would laugh so hard if we end up getting a solid winter out of this event just so I can stop seeing the repetitive posts on here.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If some people are actually arguing that the extratropics in the Northern Hemisphere are going to somehow magically stay in a La Niña state with a raging super El Niño in place this fall and winter then I have no words. I think (hope), that’s not what some are forecasting, since it would completely defy the laws of physics and reality

Nothing defies the laws of physics lol. July will be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA, and projections through August 15 put it about -0.5 for the month by then. Do we make 7 in a row?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

28 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I truly would laugh so hard if we end up getting a solid winter out of this event just so I can stop seeing the repetitive posts on here.

People think Super Nino means warm too automatically. The NAO/AO play a role, and if you map N. Pacific 500mb anomalies historically with Super Nino's you will see a N. Pacific trough placement in the cold season where it is usually doesn't extend a 2nd wave ridge so far east. 

[chris21]

12 hours ago, George001 said:

Super El Niño is bad for sustained cold, it isn’t necessarily bad for snow. For say NYC and SE you guys I think could actually do well snow wise because all it takes is one big storm to get you over your seasonal snow totals. I would also think the storm track with the active super Nino driven STJ could be good for the mid Atlantic. Super Nino is bad for coastal SNE and ski areas for 2 reasons however:

1. More of our snow consists of nickel and dime events than huge storms, so the super Nino tradeoff (warmer overall, very few nickle and dime events, elevated risk of huge storms) hits northern areas harder. This is the bigger issue for ski areas, as well as the worse snow retention due to it being milder overall.

2. The active southern jet doesn’t necessarily push storms up the coast if the “big one” does hit , often they slide out after hitting the mid Atlantic rather than coming up (see Jan 2016), and when they do come up they tend to run inland a bit and bring in warmer air, bringing rain to coastal New England. This is the bigger issue for areas like Boston, the juiced up Miller A track often isn’t great here. We tend to do better with Miller Bs and SWFE events. 

I’m not optimistic for my area and the ski areas, but in NYC and the mid atlantic I don’t think how things are developing is necessarily bad in terms of snow prospects. 

It’s been amazing for southern Appalachian ski resorts but further north it’s garbage. Most resorts… Beech, Snowshoe, Sugar easily eclipsed 100 inches. Mt. Mitchell had 170 inches of snow.