2026-2027 Super El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If the PDO doesn't turn positive, I think the el nino stays below +2C, and 94-95 is our best analog. PDO should flip if we get above +2C, and definitely if it's above +2.5C. There has never been a +2.5C el nino that had a -PDO.

Definitely not the best winter, but we could get something out of one month (most likely February).

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If the PDO doesn't turn positive, I think the el nino stays below +2C, and 94-95 is our best analog. PDO should flip if we get above +2C, and definitely if it's above +2.5C. There has never been a +2.5C el nino that had a -PDO.

Definitely not the best winter, but we could get something out of one month (most likely February).

The PDO doesn’t force ENSO to do anything or prevent it from doing anything, it’s a completely separate extratropical entity. In fact, there are studies that show that ENSO events (especially strong ones) can influence/modulate the PDO if anything, not the other way around. Eric Webb has been arguing that the well coupled ++PMM (subtropical entity) is acting as a +PDO right now

[Stormchaserchuck1]

There is some overlap, but ENSO and the PDO effect different areas in the Pacific - ENSO is further east and PDO is further west. 

[jaxjagman]

+PDO can happen even in a NINA,but more likely in a NINO,maybe more study to what actually starts a period?Dacula has the Index of the PDO going back into the last century

https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

There is some overlap, but ENSO and the PDO effect different areas in the Pacific - ENSO is further east and PDO is further west. 

Chuck and others, check this out:

June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958!

This is pretty surreal in our warming world:

2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C!

2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C

 

1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C

1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Ever since the Solar Max in May 2024, where a weakened magnetic field brought the aurora borealis very far towards the central part of the Earth - The warm season has been getting this cold 60-90N. At the end of last September, I think we had the lowest 500mb on record for the month in the N. Hemisphere, all time.