2026-2027 Super El Nino

[raindancewx]

Locally we tend to see more robust monsoon precipitation, advancement and development when the snow pack is destroyed early in the season. At the automated snow measurement site on Ski Taos at 11,000 feet above sea level, we had ~40 inches of snowpack left on 5/23/23. In 2026, that was the day the snowpack fully melted. Would prefer not to relive July 2023, as it's essentially as warm as it can get here due to the complete lack of rain in our wettest month. I believe its our warmest month on record.

Fortunately the source of the July 2023 heatwave here was the June 2023 heatwave in Mexico, which is not present. The El Nino developing still looks pretty different from 2023-24.  My records from June 2023 show towns even at 8,000+ in elevation in Central Mexico were running over 90 degrees for highs, v. typical readings in the low 70s. Some of those same towns have had rain-cooled highs in the 60s already this month.

Sum	3070	2240	-	-	0	649	T	0.0	-
Average	99.0	72.3	85.6	6.7	-	-	-	-	0.0
Normal	91.2	66.5	78.9	-	0	429	1.64	0.0	-
2023-07-01	92	67	79.5	0.7	0	15	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-02	95	69	82.0	3.1	0	17	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-03	96	67	81.5	2.5	0	17	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-04	98	70	84.0	5.0	0	19	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-05	99	68	83.5	4.5	0	19	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-06	99	69	84.0	4.9	0	19	T	0.0	0
2023-07-07	97	72	84.5	5.4	0	20	T	0.0	0
2023-07-08	96	71	83.5	4.4	0	19	T	0.0	0
2023-07-09	100	68	84.0	4.9	0	19	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-10	99	78	88.5	9.4	0	24	T	0.0	0
2023-07-11	101	78	89.5	10.4	0	25	T	0.0	0
2023-07-12	100	75	87.5	8.4	0	23	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-13	99	74	86.5	7.4	0	22	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-14	103	74	88.5	9.4	0	24	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-15	100	74	87.0	8.0	0	22	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-16	100	71	85.5	6.5	0	21	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-17	104	70	87.0	8.0	0	22	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-18	103	75	89.0	10.1	0	24	T	0.0	0
2023-07-19	101	75	88.0	9.1	0	23	T	0.0	0
2023-07-20	101	79	90.0	11.1	0	25	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-21	98	73	85.5	6.7	0	21	T	0.0	0
2023-07-22	97	69	83.0	4.2	0	18	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-23	95	68	81.5	2.8	0	17	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-24	100	73	86.5	7.8	0	22	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-25	103	76	89.5	10.9	0	25	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-26	102	72	87.0	8.4	0	22	T	0.0	0
2023-07-27	101	75	88.0	9.5	0	23	T	0.0	0
2023-07-28	100	73	86.5	8.1	0	22	T	0.0	0
2023-07-29	98	71	84.5	6.1	0	20	T	0.0	0
2023-07-30	97	75	86.0	7.7	0	21	0.00	0.0	0
2023-07-31	96	71	83.5	5.2	0	19	T	0.0	0

[Stormchaserchuck1]

June is typically not a big month for ENSO to effect the N. Hemisphere pattern, but we continue to see differences in the North Pacific

[roardog]

51 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

June is typically not a big month for ENSO to effect the N. Hemisphere pattern, but we continue to see differences in the North Pacific

Isn’t the pattern around day 10 close to the normal +enso June look though?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

31 minutes ago, roardog said:

Isn’t the pattern around day 10 close to the normal +enso June look though?

We get a little low south of the Aleutians Days 5-9. Around Day 10 a ridge is building into the Gulf of Alaska. I guess you can say that's close, but a slight difference west makes it more -PNA. 

I'm just really looking at the PNA, June will likely be the 5th consecutive month of -pna, and the average is no joke, it's less than -1/month

1965, 1982, and 2023 all had a 4-month streak of -PNA that were broken in June. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

June PNA will likely finish <-1, but it doesn't have a high correlation to the Winter, surprisingly

[snowman19]

The EPAC has come alive….invests/convection galore. I think this has a very good chance of being a historic TC season in the EPAC
 

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

 

This past November was in 2025.

Part of the reason this El Niño is becoming record breaking so early on is due to the accumulation of record SST warmth in the WPAC. The WWBs beginning in November 2025 started the kelvin waves and warm push eastward.

These are record breaking WWBs that we haven’t seen since the late 1990s. So a record WPAC warm pool initiation plus record WWBs equal a record El Niño.

Also note how Nino 1+2 never fully cooled off after the last super El Niño in 2023-2024. So it’s no surprise that this event is becoming so strong given the much warmer background state that it’s originating in.

Past climate reconstructions along with modeling support the hypothesis that it’s normal for El Niños to become more frequent and stronger as the world warms. So the 2020s will be the first decade with super El Niños over +2.0° occurring only 3 years apart.

Plus recent studies show that at some point in the future we can warm enough to enter a sustained El Niño climate. But we really don’t know the global temperature threshold at which this could theoretically happen.

Still uncertain if this could even occur in our modern warmer climate or the stronger and more frequent El Niño mode continues.

 

https://apnews.com/article/4379af505f994766a4fa332e9c7a923a

https://www.colorado.edu/today/2024/09/25/1-2-el-nino-events-could-be-extreme-mid-century

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.354.6317.1210

https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/10/631/2019/

 

 

 

 

 

17 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah but the maps of Austrailia are from 2025,not 2026,its not as warm as those are showing,just saying

 

[GaWx]

Nino 3.4 warmed only 0.2 in today’s release for last week averaged out vs the prior week from 0.5 to 0.7 vs my guess based on daily OISST levels/changes of it warming 0.3 (from 0.5 to 0.8). But this difference could possibly be mainly due to rounding. For example, perhaps the prior week was, say, +0.46 vs last week being, say, +0.74 or whatever.

 It has gotten more E based the last 5 weeks but (as per what I recently posted) the Euro doesn’t have it getting more E based overall from this point forward and thus keeps it from getting anywhere near as E based as 1997-8:

 

                            1+2          3          3.4      4

29APR2026         0.6        0.4        0.4        0.5
 06MAY2026         1.0        0.5        0.4        0.5
 13MAY2026         1.3        0.6        0.4        0.6
 20MAY2026         1.6        0.7        0.5        0.6
 27MAY2026         1.7        0.8        0.5        0.7
 03JUN2026         2.1        1.0        0.7        0.7

 

[olafminesaw]

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

More traditional June El Niño 500 mb pattern forecast for next week as this record El Niño continues to gain steam.

 

[mitchnick]

On 6/7/2026 at 9:16 AM, snowman19 said:

 

 

“No surprises in the latest NMME climate model output. Niño intensity has ticked up in a few of the models (the CanESM5 was one of the last moderate Niño holdouts last month but it's all in on a near-record event now). I think the NCAR CESM1 broke or something this month.

The response looks extremely classic too. Wet anomalies across the tropical Pacific, with the NE and Central Pacific also active thanks to the +PMM. The Atlantic will be dry and hostile for basically the whole season, with drought possible in the Caribbean. The Gulf Coast will likely have a wet and stormy winter as the subtropical jet gets cranking.”

 

You forgot to mention temps/precip on the NMME are pretty sweet for winter lovers in the east for Dec-Feb.

Individual months look decent as well imho. Links start in December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=T2ma_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6

 

[LakePaste25]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You forgot to mention temps/precip on the NMME are pretty sweet for winter lovers in the east for Dec-Feb.

Individual months look decent as well imho. Links start in December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=T2ma_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nmme&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month_nmme&runtime=2026060800&fh=6

 

I imagine most of that will be rain, but there’s always the chance for a big snow storm just like in 15-16, 82-83, etc