2026-2027 Super El Nino

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Isn’t the primary key in winter assuming you're far enough north usually the storm tracks?

Its the primary key for how stormy/snowy winter will be. But you absolutely have to expect thaws/non-winter stretches in a strong nino. The snow season lasts Nov-Apr, so unlike last winter which was steady cold/white during DJF, you go into this winter knowing there will be interruptions and shitty spells but if you can settle into an active pattern, plenty of snow chances too. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, MarcmmKU said:

Not always. Even northern new england isn't immune to literal torches. See December 2015. I am crossing my fingers we don't get something like this again.

December 2015 was just a trainwreck but the rest of the winter wasnt bad here. There was actually a very scenic snowstorm Nov 21st then it was quiet snow-wise til early January. One of the hallmarks of strong ninos tends to be one real shitty month and the rest of the time ok. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is a strong Polar Vortex over the Arctic circle for the next 13 days! Since 2012, May-Aug SLP anomaly 60-90N has flipped in the Winter every time. That's a Winter -AO signal (but it's still early)!

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

19 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98

No, this does not look like 2015 at all. It was never this east-based
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is what Paul Roundy has to say;
 

 

 

 

 

 

@forkyfork

 

[raindancewx]

For the 100-180W subsurface, Mar-May, 1997 and 2026 are nearly identical

Year   March/April/May

1997      1.17 / 2.17 / 2.01

2026    1.36 / 2.24 / 2.00

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

To be fair, we are also putting a major dent in the warm pool, and the warmest waters are now between 160-170E with plenty of westerlies remaining in the forecast.

 

We have a record 30C warm pool from the IO over to Nino 4. So the Nino forcing is linking up with forcing near the Maritime Continent. This is part of the reason that the models have the warmth in Canada and across the Northern Tier states as we head into June.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, mitchnick said:

It didn't cave last year or the year before either fwiw, and did pretty well with the BN temps forecasts.

Usually the seasonal guidance will be biased towards stock ENSO, so when a seasonal model shows that output leading into an intense El Nino episode, it should provide reason for pause.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This is a strong Polar Vortex over the Arctic circle for the next 13 days! Since 2012, May-Aug SLP anomaly 60-90N has flipped in the Winter every time. That's a Winter -AO signal (but it's still early)!

Another nod towards 1997.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98

I think it's important to not get too cute with the EMI when ENSO gets this strong because all of them are going to be "basin wide" in the sense that the anomalies will encompass the entirety of the ENSO area. Good luck getting 2.5C in the east or west, and having 0C on the other end. This is why I'm not really focused too much on EMI.

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Another nod towards 1997.

Unpopular opinion here. 1997-98 wasnt AS bad as it gets a rep for in the Great Lakes. It sucked, but an nunprecedented shutout (just a T) in February sealed its fate in infamy. Nov-Jan was ok, multiple rounds of snow (then a few more in March). The 2nd half of January was solid white ground and gray skies and the temp barely moved. Good enough for snow but I imagine terrible for ice fishing. 

Still high on the list of winters I dont care to ever see again, but significantly better than 1982-83.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Unpopular opinion here. 1997-98 wasnt AS bad as it gets a rep for in the Great Lakes. It sucked, but an nunprecedented shutout (just a T) in February sealed its fate in infamy. Nov-Jan was ok, multiple rounds of snow (then a few more in March). The 2nd half of January was solid white ground and gray skies and the temp barely moved. Good enough for snow but I imagine terrible for ice fishing. 

Still high on the list of winters I dont care to ever see again, but significantly better than 1982-83.

I agree that it could have turned out better than it did with a little luck, but I would take 1982 12x over 1997. Dec 1997 had a great storm here just before Xmas, which was the one good event that entire wretched season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.

[LakePaste25]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll bet if we did 1997 over again, it would work out somewhat better for my area.

I remember HM mentioning awhile ago that the 97-98 season came extremely close to a KU for the NE/Mid atlantic. I keep stressing that a 97-98 redux does not automatically mean “guaranteed low snow season” even for DC/PHL/NY.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I remember HM mentioning awhile ago that the 97-98 season came extremely close to a KU for the NE/Mid atlantic. I keep stressing that a 97-98 redux does not automatically mean “guaranteed low snow season” even for DC/PHL/NY.

As an anecdotal note, I think the run of "bad luck" for the east coast has come to an end and feel like we are starting to more efficiently cash in for a while. Just a hunch.

[GaWx]

19 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these events always begin very EP, that's nothing new. not much support on a persistent EP event... we should see things move basin-wide by the time winter rolls around. looks pretty 2015-16 esque in that regard, not 1997-98

Cansips is still going full Modoki unlike Euro and CFS. But I think it may have a Modoki bias based on at least one previous year.

Latest Cansips DJF has warmest SST anomalies over W region 3.4/region 4: (**corrected** as I had region 3 typo)

 

*Edited for typo

[GaWx]

 Latest CFS DJF fits super Nino climo well unlike what Cansips is still showing, which may be related to it having Modoki:

CFS DJF: looks like what one would expect with super-Nino:

 

Cansips DJF: still looks off but may be due to it having Modoki

[bluewave]

The long range forecasts from the CanSIPS have a strong cold bias. Notice how the model had a cold spring especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast from the older forecasts. Didn’t really begin to catch on until the March 1st update. But even then it was too cold. 
 

Verification 2nd warmest spring on record for the CONUS

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

Follow

Spring (Mar-May) temperature departure from the 1991-2020 normal. Seems warm.

 

 

‪Climatologist49‬

 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

· 20h

Spring 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S. (2012). A majority of locations had a top 5 warmest spring compared to all springs since 1895 and many places had their warmest. Only a small area of the northern Plains had a cool spring compared to the full period-of-record.

 

2:07 PM · Jun 1, 2026

Everybody

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The long range forecasts from the CanSIPS have a strong cold bias. Notice how the model had a cold spring especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast from the older forecasts. Didn’t really begin to catch on until the March 1st update. But even then it was too cold. 
 

Verification 2nd warmest spring on record for the CONUS

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

Follow

Spring (Mar-May) temperature departure from the 1991-2020 normal. Seems warm.

 

 

‪Climatologist49‬

 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

· 20h

Spring 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S. (2012). A majority of locations had a top 5 warmest spring compared to all springs since 1895 and many places had their warmest. Only a small area of the northern Plains had a cool spring compared to the full period-of-record.

 

2:07 PM · Jun 1, 2026

Everybody

Thanks, Chris.

 Indeed, Cansips was much too cold in the E US this spring. And it has been too cold there at other times. But I’m curious. Does it actually have a well analyzed documented cold bias in the E US based on an amply sized sample based on a good number of years? I wouldn’t be surprised but it’s important to know, of course.

[forkyfork]

cope and cry

[forkyfork]

18 hours ago, Cobalt said:

it's okay, we're all wrong sometimes

 

it made a bunch of weird losers mad. mission accomplished <3

[FPizz]

18 hours ago, Cobalt said:

it's okay, we're all wrong sometimes

 

Typical awfulness from the worst red tagger on the board

[forkyfork]

41 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

cope and cry

what is this going to do to our climate baseline?

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

what is this going to do to our climate baseline?

Who cares

[WX-PA]

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I remember HM mentioning awhile ago that the 97-98 season came extremely close to a KU for the NE/Mid atlantic. I keep stressing that a 97-98 redux does not automatically mean “guaranteed low snow season” even for DC/PHL/NY.

72-73 also had some near misses to.

[Cobalt]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it made a bunch of weird losers mad. mission accomplished <3

[WX-PA]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

cope and cry

So does that mean if it's 3.5 instead of 2.5 that we're going to melt?. Will Los Angeles fall into the ocean? Trying to figure the out the hype..Yes ithere will be above normal temps this winter, doesn't mean there won't be any winter weather.

[WX-PA]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The long range forecasts from the CanSIPS have a strong cold bias. Notice how the model had a cold spring especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast from the older forecasts. Didn’t really begin to catch on until the March 1st update. But even then it was too cold. 
 

Verification 2nd warmest spring on record for the CONUS

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

 

Follow

Spring (Mar-May) temperature departure from the 1991-2020 normal. Seems warm.

 

 

‪Climatologist49‬

 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

· 20h

Spring 2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the Contiguous U.S. (2012). A majority of locations had a top 5 warmest spring compared to all springs since 1895 and many places had their warmest. Only a small area of the northern Plains had a cool spring compared to the full period-of-record.

 

2:07 PM · Jun 1, 2026

Everybody

Cansips was good last winter where the CFS 2 had a torch, but yea every Super Nino is warm. We will have to wait to see how warm

[roardog]

6 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

So does that mean if it's 3.5 instead of 2.5 that we're going to melt?. Will Los Angeles fall into the ocean? Trying to figure the out the hype..Yes ithere will be above normal temps this winter, doesn't mean there won't be any winter weather.

Yeah. All of that is going to happen plus fish will be living out of water and mosquitos will bite themselves. It’s going to be crazy!!