2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

You know it’s going to be a big event when they have to adjust the scale higher.

+9F was kind of a weak scale anyway

[snowman19]

@Bluewave @donsutherland1 This is going to cause another massive WWB/DWKW and TC’s. It’s also going to enhance the already strong ocean-atmosphere coupling/Bjerknes feedback. IMO this El Niño surpasses 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 both in RONI and traditional ONI….
 

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, George001 said:

Yep it’s coming. This is clearly an early developing El Niño with extreme subsurface heat, I am fully on board with the super Nino idea. Normally I lean against an extreme event until proven otherwise, but like you said them having to adjust the scales…. Have to wonder if the more aggressive normally warm biased guidance has the right idea this time (eg European). 

The 365 day running mean never really went into La Niña in Nino 1+2 following the +2.1 ONI event in 2023-2024. Remember we were talking about the anomalous WWBs and warming there last winter during the La Niña which had the record +PNA for a La Niña which was more Nino-like.

Seems like the unusual WWBs in EPAC during March 2023 with the rapid warming may be part of a different type of ENSO cycle than we have seen before. So this allowed only 3 years to go by before the El Niño emerged again on track for the shortest return period between two consecutive 2.1 or greater ONI events. We also had the record warming in early 2023 ahead of the usual El Niño lag which wasn’t present. 

I know most here are focused on next winter. But we don’t have any analogs for such big global temperature jumps only 3 years apart. It’s a big unknown how the details will unfold in regard to weather extremes. Since 2015-2016 happened 18 years after the last big rise in 1997-1998. The record increase in 2023-2024 was only an 8 year gap. Now we are talking only 3 years. 
 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Remember we were talking about the anomalous WWBs and warming there last winter during the La Niña which had the record +PNA for a La Niña which was more Nino-like.

For 1 month. December, Feb, March, and April were all -PNA

Quote

I know most here are focused on next winter. But we don’t have any analogs for such big global temperature jumps only 3 years apart. It’s a big unknown how the details will unfold in regard to weather extremes. Since 2015-2016 happened 18 years after the last big rise in 1997-1998. The record increase in 2023-2024 was only an 8 year gap. Now we are talking only 3 years. 

You believe global warming is a main driver of dominant patterns? I think we have more of a background -ENSO/-PDO state so it may not be like some of the classic Strong Nino's but I don't see the relevance in "new global temperature 3 years apart" aside from general warming. 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

For 1 month. December, Feb, March, and April were all -PNA

You believe global warming is a main driver of dominant patterns? I think we have more of a background -ENSO/-PDO state so it may not be like some of the classic Strong Nino's but I don't see the relevance in "new global temperature 3 years apart" aside from general warming. 

There was a recent paper released on this topic calling it the PCC. But we will probably need the data for this next event included to help develop the new idea. Remember, the climate models missed the sudden rise in temperatures in the spring of 2023. So it’s possible that the current climate modeling technology is developing too slowly to capture the faster changes that have been occurring. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52731-6

Much recent work focused on whether equatorial Pacific cooling over past decades is driven by anthropogenic effects or arises from internally-generated climate variability, like the IPO. A definitive anthropogenic link to the recent trends would allow us to reliably predict a cooler tropical Pacific. As the tropical Pacific is known to be a climatic pacemaker, for (at least) the near-future this would mitigate global warming via ocean heat uptake and low-level cloud feedbacks. Instead, if the cyclic IPO dominates the recent cooling, we may expect a strong warming when it reverses. In support of the first possibility, we have identified an emerging climate change signal in the tropical Pacific across different observational datasets and we call it the PCC. The PCC has distinctive ocean-atmosphere dynamics that differ from those associated with the IPO. We further demonstrate that the recent trends during the satellite era, which have been the focus of significant attention, result from a combination of IPO and PCC. The emerging PCC SST trend pattern features a narrow band of cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and warming elsewhere. This SST change is linked to thermocline shoaling/SSH decreases in the central-to-eastern Pacific and dipole-like changes in zonal surface wind stress. In contrast, the recurrent IPO-driven SST trend pattern is characterized by a meridionally broader cooling in the eastern Pacific, zonal dipole-like thermocline/SSH changes and an overall strengthening of tropical Pacific zonal wind stress. We have shown that these distinct ocean circulation changes are a response to different wind stress patterns. These oceanic responses account for surface cooling in the eastern Pacific, with the thermocline shoaling playing a dominant role in the PCC cooling and enhanced zonal advective cooling mainly driving the IPO-related cooling.

While basic geophysical fluid dynamics proved sufficient to attribute the observed oceanic changes to surface wind stress, we have not addressed the origins of the wind stress patterns associated with the PCC and the IPO. New research is needed to elucidate the wind changes, but our leading hypothesis is as follows. In response to GHG forcings^39,40 temperature change in the upper troposphere are stronger than at the surface (Fig. S4), increasing atmospheric static stability. Consequently, the initial SST and surface wind response to rising GHGs might not be amplified as efficiently via Bjerknes feedback as is that for the internal modes on interannual to decadal timescales. Given the differences in thermocline and ocean current patterns associated with the PCC and the IPO, the coupled feedbacks related to ocean dynamics are also expected to differ, potentially contributing to distinct climate pattern formations for decadal variability and climate change. Additionally, climate variations outside of the tropical Pacific may influence the tropical Pacific trade winds^{26,27,41,42,43,44}. Further, it has been argued that pronounced decadal-to-multidecadal SST variability in the Atlantic Ocean is also dominated by the response to the same external forcing that the tropical Pacific encounters⁴⁵. Perhaps the co-occurrence of these long-term trends in different regions is not simply a direct response to rising GHGs but is influenced by inter-basin interactions. More work is needed to disentangle causal relationships among the long-term changes in different basins^46,47.

Throughout this paper we have taken for granted the widespread assumption that the IPO is an internal mode of the climate system. However, while we worked to distinguish between the recurrent IPO-related decadal variability and the emerging PCC signal, we are open to the possibility that these two may have become coupled together by anthropogenic forcing. They have much in common: shoaling of the thermocline in the east, enhanced upwelling somewhere in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. It seems reasonable to postulate that if the response to radiative forcing is the emerging PCC pattern seen here, then it could initiate coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that favor a negative IPO state that also has an enhanced SST gradient²⁴. This might explain why the most recent IPO swing has been extreme and robust (Fig. S1b). If so, this suggests that in nature forcing is projecting onto natural modes of variability, while it is not clear whether climate models can reproduce this behavior. A new perspective on how internal variability interacts with the climate change signal will be needed in future studies.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I know most here are focused on next winter. But we don’t have any analogs for such big global temperature jumps only 3 years apart. It’s a big unknown how the details will unfold in regard to weather extremes. Since 2015-2016 happened 18 years after the last big rise in 1997-1998. The record increase in 2023-2024 was only an 8 year gap. Now we are talking only 3 years. 

91-92 would have probably had a big global temperature jump if not for Pinatubo. It was the 3rd robust el nino in 10 years, and coming off the heels of a temperature jump from the 86-88 el nino.

But my guess is that if Pinatubo never happens, 97-98 still has a temperature jump, but not as drastic. 97-98 not only had the super el nino, but the exiting of a cooling period from a major volcano to enhance its temperature jump.

[snowman19]

The NMME joins the EURO, BOM, CFS

[csnavywx]

6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

91-92 would have probably had a big global temperature jump if not for Pinatubo. It was the 3rd robust el nino in 10 years, and coming off the heels of a temperature jump from the 86-88 el nino.

But my guess is that if Pinatubo never happens, 97-98 still has a temperature jump, but not as drastic. 97-98 not only had the super el nino, but the exiting of a cooling period from a major volcano to enhance its temperature jump.

It's a nice theory, but there's reason to believe cooling caused by tropical volcanic eruptions actually help weaken trades over the WPac:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/10/171003111101.htm

So it's debatable whether that Nino even happens in the first place, or if it does, to that degree.

[csnavywx]

On 3/23/2026 at 9:39 AM, csnavywx said:

Now that we officially moved to RONI, the funniest possible outcome is a Nino that smashes through 2.0 on RONI anyways.

Still early but hard not to like all of the off-center WWBs pumping warm water volume towards the equator. It's got the potential, especially given how early it got started.

Given how the following month went in pumping all of that WWV eastward and the sheer amount of momentum transfer into the thermocline, I will make the following statement:

Never short sell synoptically obvious events.

[snowman19]

On 5/4/2026 at 10:42 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

April PDO -1.48 (actually lower than March's -1.43 PDO). This is a huge surprise, especially if we're heading towards a super el nino.
1972 (-1.70), 2009 (-2.23), and 2023 (-3.08) are the only strong/super el ninos that had a lower PDO in April. 
1972 and 2023, of course, stayed negative, while 2009 went towards a neutral PDO.

Yep. 1972 was a good example of a -PDO super El Niño. The -PDO is going to have no limiting effect on this developing super El Niño thanks to the extreme ++PMM that’s in place. In fact, it’s not only helping to kill the trades, enhancing the warming, it’s also working to support the development of an east-based/EP event, as per the research I’ve already shared in this thread a couple of pages ago, explaining how a +PMM favors east-based/EP El Niños

 

 

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

For 1 month. December, Feb, March, and April were all -PNA

You believe global warming is a main driver of dominant patterns? I think we have more of a background -ENSO/-PDO state so it may not be like some of the classic Strong Nino's but I don't see the relevance in "new global temperature 3 years apart" aside from general warming. 

Thats always "relevant" in his posts lol.

Just like the last 2 cold winters we had, global temps wont matter to most next winter, nor will how how strong the nino is. The sensible weather in anyones location is what most of us really care about. So as we get thru summer and towards Fall, it will be interesting to see what you, 40/70 and others who lack a strong bias and have a forecasting background start to think as the winter approaches. 

[jaxjagman]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The NMME joins the EURO, BOM, CFS
 

Typically you see the Atmospheric River get going in a strong NINO on the west coast,so you dont see these SST'S out west.Like the NMME'S shows,Its the same into the GOM more or less downstream

Out into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan  has alot  has to do with The Siberian blocking,so there's no guarantee even that that region will be warm or cold in a strong NINO.

 

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4416

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Phase shift.. it will be interesting to see if the N. pacific low responds. So far there are no signs of it on long range ensembles, even though ENSO usually correlates with it pretty strongly in the NPH area in May

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Again, +2 years after a Solar Max correlates with El Nino at 0.2 (57%). Here is the Winter composite +2 years after Solar Max

There were/are 3 things going for El Nino this year:

1. We had 5/6 La Nina years (RONI). History says ENSO balances that out in the next 1-3 years, 2:1 El Nino vs La Nina tendency. 

2. We had a Strong El Nino 3 years ago (23-24). History says that there is a "2nd wave", as similar event happens vs dissimilar 2:1, 3-5 years after Strong ENSO event. 

3. Solar Max +2 years is a pretty strong El Nino composite:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. 1972 was a good example of a -PDO super El Niño. The -PDO is going to have no limiting effect on this developing super El Niño thanks to the extreme ++PMM that’s in place. In fact, it’s not only helping to kill the trades, enhancing the warming, it’s also working to support the development of an east-based/EP event, as per the research I’ve already shared in this thread a couple of pages ago, explaining how a +PMM favors east-based/EP El Niños

Not much of a May PMM difference between Nino 4, 3.4 and 1.2 based later-in-the-year El Nino's. If anything it's probably strongest for Nino 4

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

91-92 would have probably had a big global temperature jump if not for Pinatubo. It was the 3rd robust el nino in 10 years, and coming off the heels of a temperature jump from the 86-88 el nino.

But my guess is that if Pinatubo never happens, 97-98 still has a temperature jump, but not as drastic. 97-98 not only had the super el nino, but the exiting of a cooling period from a major volcano to enhance its temperature jump.

We had a smaller temperature rise with the 80s into early 90s El Niño events since we were just coming out of the cooler climate prior to 1980. 

The first global first significant temperature jump occurred in 1997-1998. Then the next one in 2015-2016. Followed by 2023-2024. 

We didn’t find out what the CRCs were until after the events. So it’s going to take some time to know how all the details following this event also. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-66143-7

Climate regime shifts (CRSs), characterized by abrupt and persistent transitions between alternative stable states in the climate system, pose serious threats to ecosystems and human well-being. Understanding the potential drivers of CRSs is crucial, particularly in a warming world where CRSs are becoming more frequent. Here, using multiple observations and model simulations, we find that the likelihood of CRS occurrence significantly increases in the context of super El Niño events due to their remarkable climate perturbations. This higher probability is detected across various climate elements, such as surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and surface soil moisture. In addition, we suggest that this boost effect of super El Niño events on CRSs will be greatly amplified under future greenhouse warming. Our findings underscore a deeper and more persistent climate footprint of super El Niño events, suggesting that early warnings and proactive measures are crucial for mitigating their escalating risks.

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Not much of a May PMM difference between Nino 4, 3.4 and 1.2 based later-in-the-year El Nino's. If anything it's probably strongest for Nino 4

A recent (2025) research paper came up with this conclusion about +PMM El Niños: 

“A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”

Link to the research paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other climate modes further complicate,and NPO%2C on ENSO evolution.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Right, I'm just running all the data (73 years +events) and showing that in the data there isn't really a difference. 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thats always "relevant" in his posts lol.

Just like the last 2 cold winters we had, global temps wont matter to most next winter, nor will how how strong the nino is. The sensible weather in anyones location is what most of us really care about. So as we get thru summer and towards Fall, it will be interesting to see what you, 40/70 and others who lack a strong bias and have a forecasting background start to think as the winter approaches. 

The sensible weather in any given location is a function of the global temperatures which sets the range of options. It’s why the CONUS winters have shifted so much warmer after 2014-2015 compared to before. 

This is why your area in the Great Lakes hasn’t been able to experience a repeat of the 2013-2014 winter following the big global temperature jump in 2015-2016.

Same for Central and Eastern PA not being able to experience a repeat of 1993-1994 benchmark for snow and record cold. Along with NYC Metro not seeing anything close to 1995-1996. It’s no coincidence that those two benchmark winters occurred before the first big temperature jump in 1997-1998.

The climate state from 1997-1998 to 2014-2015 also produced benchmark winters for Boston in 2014-2015 and DC to Philly in 2009-2010 which haven’t been able to be replicated.

Following the 2023-2024 temperature shift to warmer weather we experienced the #1 warmest winter and #2 warmest winter for the CONUS only two years ago apart.

Even a relatively small temperature shift to warmer in the 1980s hasn’t allowed a top 10 coldest CONUS winter to happen again like we had in the 1970s. 

So every temperature jump has resulted in some aspect of the prior climate not being able to occur in the new warmer one. 

But we usually have to wait until after one of these jumps to start observing which elements of the earlier climate state haven’t been carried forward into the newer one. 

 

 

[snowman19]

The new NMME is showing very strong coupling and a massive (El Nino) standing wave developing in June

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The sensible weather in any given location is a function of the global temperatures which sets the range of options. It’s why the CONUS winters have shifted so much warmer after 2014-2015 compared to before. 

This is why your area in the Great Lakes hasn’t been able to experience a repeat of the 2013-2014 winter following the big global temperature jump in 2015-2016.

Same for Central and Eastern PA not being able to experience a repeat of 1993-1994 benchmark for snow and record cold. Along with NYC Metro not seeing anything close to 1995-1996. It’s no coincidence that those two benchmark winters occurred before the first big temperature jump in 1997-1998.

The climate state from 1997-1998 to 2014-2015 also produced benchmark winters for Boston in 2014-2015 and DC to Philly in 2009-2010 which haven’t been able to be replicated.

Following the 2023-2024 temperature shift to warmer weather we experienced the #1 warmest winter and #2 warmest winter for the CONUS only two years ago apart.

Even a relatively small temperature shift to warmer in the 1980s hasn’t allowed a top 10 coldest CONUS winter to happen again like we had in the 1970s. 

So every temperature jump has resulted in some aspect of the prior climate not being able to occur in the new warmer one. 

But we usually have to wait until after one of these jumps to start observing which elements of the earlier climate state haven’t been carried forward into the newer one. 

 

 

Why would I expect a repeat of the most severe winter on record? The 2013-14 winter locally was unlike anything in the cimate record dating back to the 1870s. It steamrolled any of the vaunted '70s winters. No winter for at least the previous 140 years could match it, but the reason no winter in the 11 years since matched it is due to global temp rises? 

And regarding winter 2025-26 being 2nd warmest for the CONUS...that proves my point EXACTLY. It was a Winnipeg winter here. Constant cold, constant glittery snowpack, no huge storms. The worst thing it had going for it was that the cold suppressed the big storms. 99% if it was a warmer winter it would have yielded more snow. Normies called it a harsh or even brutal winter. Tell them "but it was 2nd warmest on record in the Conus". 

"Conus temps" really have been one of the hot topics ever since the eastern warm winter streak ended in 2023-24.

And BTW. I feel the same if its a colder conus winter but mild imby. Its all about my local weather (as it is for most weather enthusiasts).

[snowman19]

Still very good cross-model agreement on a high amplitude MJO wave pushing through the PAC come later this month. That is going to constructively interfere with El Niño and initiate another big WWB and DWKW and TC’s. June’s ENSO model runs should be very interesting…..

[LakePaste25]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Why would I expect a repeat of the most severe winter on record? The 2013-14 winter locally was unlike anything in the cimate record dating back to the 1870s. It steamrolled any of the vaunted '70s winters. No winter for at least the previous 140 years could match it, but the reason no winter in the 11 years since matched it is due to global temp rises? 

And regarding winter 2025-26 being 2nd warmest for the CONUS...that proves my point EXACTLY. It was a Winnipeg winter here. Constant cold, constant glittery snowpack, no huge storms. The worst thing it had going for it was that the cold suppressed the big storms. 99% if it was a warmer winter it would have yielded more snow. Normies called it a harsh or even brutal winter. Tell them "but it was 2nd warmest on record in the Conus". 

"Conus temps" really have been one of the hot topics ever since the eastern warm winter streak ended in 2023-24.

And BTW. I feel the same if its a colder conus winter but mild imby. Its all about my local weather (as it is for most weather enthusiasts).

Many of us like to look at global temperatures because it helps us understand expectations for the upcoming winter. If there’s far more warm anomalies than cold anomalies, it means our chances of landing on one of the cold anomalies is lower before you even factor in any favorable or unfavorable indices. Like playing a game of minesweeper and you’re adding more mines. 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Why would I expect a repeat of the most severe winter on record? The 2013-14 winter locally was unlike anything in the cimate record dating back to the 1870s. It steamrolled any of the vaunted '70s winters. No winter for at least the previous 140 years could match it, but the reason no winter in the 11 years since matched it is due to global temp rises? 

And regarding winter 2025-26 being 2nd warmest for the CONUS...that proves my point EXACTLY. It was a Winnipeg winter here. Constant cold, constant glittery snowpack, no huge storms. The worst thing it had going for it was that the cold suppressed the big storms. 99% if it was a warmer winter it would have yielded more snow. Normies called it a harsh or even brutal winter. Tell them "but it was 2nd warmest on record in the Conus". 

"Conus temps" really have been one of the hot topics ever since the eastern warm winter streak ended in 2023-24.

And BTW. I feel the same if its a colder conus winter but mild imby. Its all about my local weather (as it is for most weather enthusiasts).

Doom and gloom forecasts

Just like how last winter was supposed to be mild and snowles. It was the coldest and snowiest winter in over a decade here in NYC. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

48 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Many of us like to look at global temperatures because it helps us understand expectations for the upcoming winter. If there’s far more warm anomalies than cold anomalies, it means our chances of landing on one of the cold anomalies is lower before you even factor in any favorable or unfavorable indices. Like playing a game of minesweeper and you’re adding more mines. 

Can't we just accept it's warming ~0.1F a year and move on? The physics of meteorology is far more interesting. I responded to bluewave because it sounded like he was thinking the general warming would be a dominant-pattern causing thing. There is more high pressure with global warming, but there is still a lot of year to year variance. In 2025 we had more low pressure centers. In late August 2025, we actually set the record for lowest 500mb on record for the month for the Northern Hemisphere, and there were these cold 500mb anomalies setting up May-Sept 2024 too. I'm curious to see if this warm season has a relative spike of cold H5 like the last 2 years, or if that doesn't occur this year. 

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not one person made a winter forecast on here not a single one. How dare we discuss a potential historic El Niño event in a dedicated ENSO thread. This shit is the reason why people like Isotherm, HM and a few others don’t post on here anymore. The weenies crying that someone is trying to take their cold and snow away. It’s fucking pathetic. Grow the fuck up

It's no more pathetic than having a constant warm bias. Anthonys response originated from bluewave literally saying the reason all time historic winters havent been broken the past decade is a warming globe. Thats an insane position. So we're supposed to get the most severe winter on record every decade then topple it the next decade? Some of the things that were said in these enso threads the past few years were absolutely ridiculous and proven immediately untrue the following winters, whether you want to call it a forecast or not. The bias in general is why SO many people dont post here anymore. 

[michsnowfreak]

53 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Can't we just accept it's warming ~0.1F a year and move on? The physics of meteorology is far more interesting. I responded to bluewave because it sounded like he was thinking the general warming would be a dominant-pattern causing thing. There is more high pressure with global warming, but there is still a lot of year to year variance. In 2025 we had more low pressure centers. In late August 2025, we actually set the record for lowest 500mb on record for the month for the Northern Hemisphere, and there were these cold 500mb anomalies setting up May-Sept 2024 too. I'm curious to see if this warm season has a relative spike of cold H5 like the last 2 years, or if that doesn't occur this year. 

Agree. The physics of meteorology are fascinating and often completely lost in these threads by some. 

[GaWx]

It’s no secret that I’ve never been a fan of human bias of any kind (for something, against something, etc.) affecting the content and tone of communication, but unfortunately that’s human nature to an extent. I think it’s best to talk about things going on whether you like that they’re occurring or not rather than talking only about things you like.

[jaxjagman]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

I agree with this.But the WWB seems to be kicking off by which seems to be by ERW,plus probably the MJO you mentioned.These Roosby Waves in the WP have had a hard time getting past the EIDL because they encounter easterlies,they never have gotten very far as being modeled.Least this seems different this time ATM